China

The received diplomatic thinking for some years was that the United States represented the secure and stable post-war order. China represented radical—bordering on revolutionary– change.

This is changing. Trump’s America First policy coupled with tariffs and an ill-defined isolationism, is projecting America as the chief agent of change.

Meanwhile, China’s growing dependence on international trade, is transforming it into an advocate of globalisation and the international institutions that protect it.

This was apparent at this past week’s meeting of the 20-nation Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) in Tianjin. In his opening address, Chinese President Xi Jinping stressed that countries should “uphold justice, engage in multilateralism and advocate for inclusive economic globalisation and an equitable global governance system.”

He also called for support for the United Nations and the World Trade Organisation (The WTO has been effectively rendered powerless by America’s refusal to allow new judges to be appointed).

China has over the years set up a collection of overlapping regional organisations which it dominates. They include the SCO,  The Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank, the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership, the Forum on China-Africa Cooperation, the China-Community of Latin American and Caribbean States and the China-Arab Forum.

Beijing uses each of these organisations that to push the claim that China—not America—is the world’s anchor of stability. And as the Trump Administration pursues a rolling campaign of economic warfare against its trading partner this story is gaining in credence

Diplomatic and trading opportunities are being handed to China on a plate by the policies of MAGA America. It is getting to the point where an increasing number of countries are actively interested in finding an alternative to the dollar as the world’s premier trading currency. Also, fewer countries appear to be willing to impose sanctions on America’s behalf.

A key country in the shift away from America is India. Historically, India has been at loggerheads with China and successive American administrations have made strenuous bipartisan efforts to secure Indian support to counterbalance growing Chinese power.

These efforts appeared to bear fruit in the first Trump Administration and during the Biden years. But they suffered a serious setback when Trump recently opposed a 50 percent tariff on India for buying Russian oil.

In Tianjin, Modi made a point of physically embracing both Xi Jinping and Vladimir Putin. It was an embrace which sent worried shivers down the spines of American diplomats.

France

French President Emmanuel Macron looks set to lose another prime minister—his fifth since January 2024.

The current resident of the Hotel de Matignon—Francois Bayrou—has scheduled a vote of no confidence in his economic plans for next week. And it looks like it will fail. His deficit reduction proposals are hugely unpopular.

M. Bayrou is a centrist—he and Macron want to reduce France’s high level of public debt which is currently 114 percent of GDP. To do that, Bayrou proposes budget savings of $51 billion a year.

The problem is that Bayrou heads a minority government and budget cuts are opposed by both the right and left-wing blocs of the National Assembly. The National Rally (RN) of Marine Le Pen, most socialists and Jean-Luc Melenchon’s far-left supporters all oppose the cuts. They also see the debate as an opportunity to increase their parliamentary representation and have called on Macron to call fresh elections to the National Assembly.

The Socialist leader, Olivier Faure, has offered to stave off elections with a pledge to join the Bayrou’s government. But he demands a high price. He wants the cuts halved to $25.5 billion. Faure was rejected.

It is unlikely that Macron will accede to Melenchon and Le Pen’s election demands. The last time he did so, Macron ended up shrinking his minority government. Current polls indicate that if elections were held now, Macron’s supporters would end up with a paltry 15 percent of the vote. The RN is likely to win a third of the votes, the combined parties of the left 25 percent. The balance would be split between socialists and moderate conservatives.

If he does not call elections, Macron will have to choose another prime minister from what appears to be a dwindling list of suitable candidates and an increasingly unstable political environment.

Donald Trump

Donald Trump has taken to heart one of the most famous quotes from George Orwell’s iconic novel “1984”: “He who controls the past controls the future.”

He has done this by effectively planning a takeover of the world’s largest museum complex—the Smithsonian.

Ironically, the Smithsonian was founded by a British scientist, James Smithson, who, in 1846 bequeathed his $500,000 ($17 million today) fortune to “establish an institution in the United States for the increase and diffusion of knowledge.” His bequest has since grown to encompass 21 museums, libraries, art galleries, research centres and the National Zoo. It has a budget of $1 billion a year; 62 percent of which comes from the federal government.

During Trump’s first administration, the Smithsonian opened its Museum of African-American history. He didn’t like it. There was too much in it about slavery which he thought reflected badly on the American story.

Trump has accused the Smithsonian of being “the last remaining bastion of woke” and has made it clear to Smithsonian director Lonnie Bunch that he wants the museum to change its exhibits to tell the story of “American Greatness and Exceptionalism.”

Throughout its 177-year history, politicians have studiously avoided meddling in the Smith’s exhibition policies. Decisions on what and how subjects are displayed is left to historians, scientists and art experts.

However, the 17-member governing body (The Board of Regents) is almost entirely appointed by the president. They include six members of Congress, six members of the public, and the current vice president. The chairman is the Chief Justice of the Supreme Court (currently John Roberts).

The current Board of Regents would likely fight Trump to protect the Smithsonian’s independence from political interference. But the term of each regent is six years and over the next six months enough members will be retiring to allow Trump to win control.

The White House has given director Bunch until Christmas to change the exhibits—at least come up with a plan—that reflects the Trump image of American history. If he doesn’t then Trump will start taking over the board and may—if Bunch fights back—cut federal money.

* Tom Arms is foreign editor of Liberal Democrat Voice. He also contributes to “The New World” magazine and lectures on world affairs. He is the author of “America Made in Britain,” two editions of “The Encyclopaedia of the Cold War” and “The Falklands Crisis.”