Trump and Russia

OMG! Trump has done another U-turn on Ukraine. This week he said that Ukraine should regain all the lands occupied by Russia and that any Russian plane encroaching on NATO airspace should be shot down.

He also referred to Russia as a “paper tiger.”

You would have thought that such talks would have infuriated.

No, they took it quite calmly on the chin. Russia is a bear, not a tiger, said Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov, “and there is no such thing as a paper bear.”

He added: “Russia, in general, and President Putin in particular value highly President Trump’s political will to continue working towards a peace settlement.”

The fact, is that the Kremlin believe in the TACO theory when dealing with the American president (Trump Always Chickens Out). They just have to tough it out; keep putting their case and keep fighting.

The Russians will also have noted that Trump’s “Paper Tiger” comments were not followed by talks about increased sanctions or any ultimate on ceasefire deadlines.

They were also heartened by Trump’s answer to a reporter’s question about whether he still trusted Vladimir Putin. He replied: “I’ll let you know in about a month from now.” A month is a long time international diplomacy.

Brazil

Ex-Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro is out of office, convicted and under house arrest awaiting transfer to prison to serve his 27-year sentence.

He is still, however, a force in Brazilian politics and is busy planning his release.

It won’t be easy, Brazil’s Federal Supreme Court (the STF) is determined that Bolsonaro stays behind bars and its members have said that any pardon or general amnesty would be unconstitutional.

But that is not the end of the story. Whomever succeeds current president Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, will probably be able to appoint three new members to the Supreme Court. If they are Bolsonaro supporters than the ex-president could be sprung.

It is a long shot, but already ambitious Brazilian politicians believe that pandering to Bolsonaro could win them the presidency. Chief among them is Tarcisio de Freitas, current governor of Sao Paulo. De Freitas has already said that he would pardon Bolsonaro in the first hour of assuming office.

De Freitas and others are pursuing the Bolsonaro blessing because the ex-president still has a large base of supporters. They are mainly evangelical Christians which comprise about 30 percent of the Brazilian population.

Bolsonaro has won their unwavering support with his stands against wokeness, abortion, gender roles and LGBTQ+ rights. On top of that, Bolsonaro is a strict Catholic, he also advocates strong traditional families which aligns with evangelical values.

France

Another ex-president facing gaol time is France’s Nikolas Sarkozy.

On Thursday he was convicted of a criminal conspiracy involving millions of Euros supplied by Libyan dictator Muammar Gadaffi for Sarkozy’s 2007 election campaign. The money was meant to pay for Sarkozy’s influence to end Gadaffi’s long-term estrangement from western countries.

Convicted alongside the ex-president were two of his former interior ministers. Claude Geant was found guilty of corruption and Bruce Hortefeur of criminal conspiracy. Sarkozy’s wife, singer and former top model Carla Bruni-Sarkozy, also faces charges related to the Gadaffi case.

The whistle in the Gadaffi case was first blown in 2013 by the Libyan dictator’s son. It was backed up the following year by Lebanese businessman Ziad Takieddine who said he had abundant proof that Sarkozy had accepted $50 million from Gadaffi. Takieddine was a recognised conduit between Libya and France.

Sarkozy could be sentenced to up to five years in prison. Since December he has been restricted to his home with an electronic tag on his ankle after being found guilty of bribing a judge. He has also been convicted of overspending on his campaign. He received a one-year sentence which was suspended for six months. Sarkozy is appealing that sentence is likely to do the same with the latest.

France’s highly centralised government and powerful executive is a tempting target for any politician keen on building a large retirement fund. The state has strict rules regarding campaign funds but their complexity and rigidity provides seductive loopholes. The favourite tactics for jumping through these holes is usually fake invoices or foreign funds which are more difficult to monitor.

The upper reaches of the French political class are also mainly drawn from the elite universities such as the École Nationale d’Administration. This can give them a dangerous sense of entitlement.

However, this does not mean that French politicians are necessarily any more corrupt than those of any other country. One of the reasons it may appear so is that France also has an active anti-corruption team of prosecutors and once a case gains traction it usually results in a conviction.

Guyana

Guyana’s GDP has exploded 900 percent from $3.4billion in 2010 to a projected $27.3 billion in 2025. And it is set to continue to grow exponentially.

The reason? Oil

The Guyanese government is starting to receive a huge income from a consortium led by Exxon/Mobil which is recovering 11 billion barrels of oil 70 miles off the coast of Guyana.

This means that—with a population of only 830,000—Guyana can go from one of the poorest countries in the world per head of population to one of the richest within a few years—Maybe.

It is quite possible that the petrodollars might end up in a few government-related hands. The country is only 39 on Transparency International’s corruption index where 100 is perfect and 0 is horrific. The signs of improvement are discouraging because the country has been slipping in the index as extreme oil wealth comes closer.

The good news is that the government is taking advice from Norway on setting up a sovereign wealth. Norway has the biggest and most successful in the world. Guyana already has $3.6 billion in its fund.

At the same time the oil wealth is starting to be spent on improving the country’s rundown infrastructure. The Chinese are building a new bridge across the Demerara River and 40 miles of new highway has been built. However, central Georgetown remains a town of ramshackle huts and open sewers which date back to British colonial times.

The biggest threat to Guyana’s oil wealth may not come from corrupt politicians but from neighbouring Venezuela. Nicolas Maduro has disputed the Guyanese claim to the oil-rich waters. He has revived a land dispute which was settled 100 years ago in favour of Guyana. In May Maduro asked voters to elect a governor for the contested territory which he claims controls the sea bed.

* Tom Arms is foreign editor of Liberal Democrat Voice. He also contributes to “The New World” magazine and lectures on world affairs. He is the author of “America Made in Britain,” two editions of “The Encyclopaedia of the Cold War” and “The Falklands Crisis.”