This weekend  voters go to the polls in Moldova – one of Europe’s least known countries sandwiched between Romania and Ukraine – in a parliamentary election that many observers are calling its most consequential ever, that will decide whether the country continues on a pro-European track or veers back towards Moscow’s sphere of influence.

The War in Ukraine looms ever large over this tiny country. Its capital Chisinău, in more peaceful times, is only a two hour drive from Odessa and the Black Sea. During my visit this summer I was told that, at the beginning of the Russian invasion in 2022, people in Chisinău could hear the sound of missiles, bombs and artillery fire coming from Ukraine.

Moldova declared independence from the Soviet Union in 1991, having been sliced off from Romania after the Second World War. Moldovans who make up 75% of the population are closely related to Romanians (7% of the population) and basically speak the same language, with a shared history and culture. As a result Romania maintains close ties with its little neighbour and there are some who would like to see the two countries reunited. Many Moldovans have a Romanian passport.

Other large ethnic groups are the Russian speaking Ukrainians (7% of the population) and Russians (4% of the population). During Soviet times Moldova with its idyllic climate, excellent wine and food was an attractive retirement destination for people from the other Soviet States. At the end of the Soviet Union, it was regarded as one of the wealthier soviet states with a population of 4.3 million. Following the economic collapse after 1991 and the subsequent political crisis resulting in low employment, low wages and  lack of opportunities – over a third of the country’s population left and 1.5 million now live abroad with only 2.5 million still resident in Moldova.  

You feel this lack of people on the streets of Chisinău today. It has its advantages and from a visitor’s perspective adds to Chișinău’s charm. I am told that the lack of especially young people is even more noticeable in the countryside.

The Moldovan diaspora sends home 12-15% of GDP annually – one of the highest remittance share in the word – and plays a major political role. In recent elections, overseas Moldovans – especially those living in the EU 250,000 – 300,00 – voted overwhelmingly for pro European parties. It is estimated that between 25,000 to 30,000 Moldovans live in the UK.

In the years following independence, Moldova’s politics have oscillated between pro European and pro Russian forces. At the last elections in 2021 the pro European Party of Action and Solidarity (PAS) led by Maia Sandu won a landslide victory taking 63 of 101 seats in Parliament. In 2024, Maia Sandu was re-elected as President with a clear mandate, while the constitutional referendum enshrined EU membership as a constitutional goal.

However the contest this weekend is likely to be much closer, between the pro-European PAS and a coalition of pro-Russian forces. Many Moldovans are fatigued with corruption, economic stagnation and ineffective public cervices  and PAS’s attempts to reduce Russian interference, vote-buying and disinformation campaigns – which have lead to  the recent banning of some pro Russian opposition parties or candidates, have sparked accusations of political oppression.  PAS counters that these steps are essential to protect Moldova’s sovereignty.

An example of disinformation pointed out to me is that Russian speaking Ukrainians in Moldova receive most of their news from Russian media and now blame their fellow Ukrainians in Ukraine for the outbreak of the war. Families on either side of the border have been turned against each other !

The most likely outcome of the elections is that PAS will secure the largest vote but fall short of an outright majority. The Pro-Russian bloc (BEP) will come second with 20- 30% and CUB – a member of ALDE and the Lib Dems sister party may just get over the 5% threshold to win a handful of seats. However the one to watch is the Alternativa Bloc, which could poll enough to play a significant role in coalitionbuilding, and whilst claiming to be progressive and pro European includes Ion Ceban, the Mayor of Chisinău who banned LGBT+ Pride from Chisinau this summer.

One thing is for sure, Putin  will be watching these elections closely.  Since declaring independence from Moldova in 1990. Transnistria, a narrow strip on the ‘ left bank’ of the Dniester river, bordering Ukraine and about an hour from Chisinău by local bus, hosts 1,500 Russian troops. So far they have remained silent whilst the war has raged next door in Ukraine but as with everything with Russia – that peace cannot be guaranteed.

Moldova is a delightful little country, its food and wine excellent, the climate in the summer guaranteed sunshine, its capital Chisinău of tree lined streets, single story buildings, outdoor cafes, parks with the feel of a provincial town, without the bustle of most major cities – is well worth a visit. Its people are friendly and eager to start up a conversation. But I could not helping feeling that I was experiencing the calm before the storm, that all this peace and tranquility could be transformed very quickly. Let’s hope that Moldova is able to continue its journey, leading eventually to joining the European Union, but I fear that it still has many challenges ahead as it plays its role in the geopolitics of Europe. The elections this weekend, whilst significant for Moldova, will most surely also have far reaching consequences felt across Europe. I shall be reaching out to my friends.

* David Chalmers is Chair of Federal International Relations Committee and leads the Lib Dems ALDE Delegation