Imagine you’re 20 years old. You left school at 16 with a handful of GCSEs, a mother with a disability, and no money for college. You’ve worked a few zero-hours shifts at a warehouse, but the anxiety that’s been sitting on your chest since you were 14 has made regular employment feel like an impossible ask on most days. You want to do something. You’ve looked at courses. But Universal Credit requires 35 hours a week of job searching, and if you stop, the money stops. So the course stays a thought, and the job search goes nowhere, because there aren’t many jobs and the ones that exist aren’t looking for someone whose CV has a lot of gaps.
You are, in government statistics, “NEET.” Not in employment, education, or training. A data point in a rising trend.
The NEET rate is now 12.7%, up 1.2 percentage points since 2019. Youth unemployment for 16-to-24 year olds sits at 15.3%. These aren’t abstract numbers. They represent a significant share of a generation that the economy has not found a place for, and which the welfare system is actively making it harder to help itself.
Labour’s answer is the Youth Guarantee: £820 million, and a six-month paid work placement for every eligible 18-to-21 year old who has been on Universal Credit and looking for work for 18 months. It’s not nothing. But it rests on a diagnosis that doesn’t survive much scrutiny.
The government’s theory of the problem is wrong
The Youth Guarantee is an activation policy. Its underlying assumption is that NEET young people need a push: a foot in the door, a bit of experience, a coach. Get them job-ready, get them placed, job done.
This is a supply-side answer to what is partly a demand-side problem. There are currently 2.3 unemployed people for every vacancy in the UK. Vacancies have been falling for over three years, down more than half a million from their 2022 peak, and the decline began before recent rises in employer National Insurance contributions, which means it isn’t primarily a story about the cost of hiring. Something structural is happening.
You cannot activate people into jobs that don’t exist. And for young people who are NEET because of mental health difficulties, housing instability, caring responsibilities, or poverty, what they need is not a placement in month 18. It’s support in month one. The 18-month wait is the guarantee’s most revealing design flaw. By the time a young person qualifies, many have already hardened into disengagement.
What could actually change now