Tag Archives: projections

13 seats.

That’s what the  You Gov MRP seat projection says we’re going to get.

Not what we wanted to hear.  YouGov only spoke to a small number of people in each seat. Our campaign teams on the ground will have spoken to thousands more people over the last few weeks. They are likely to have a much more accurate idea of what is going on and I think that they will find these projections surprising.

Seats changing hands. Tories gaining 47 seats; Lib Dem’s gaining 4 (losing 3); SNP gaining 8 seats. Lab NO gains (and losing seat as Hoyle goes to speaker chair) pic.twitter.com/nkrAo9SLtD

— Beth Rigby (@BethRigby) November 27, 2019

But note the caveat from YouGov

The idea behind MRP is that we use the poll data from the preceding seven days to estimate a model that relates interview date, constituency, voter demographics, past voting behaviour, and other respondent profile variables to their current voting intentions. This model is then used to estimate the probability that a voter with specified characteristics will vote Conservative, Labour, or some other party.

This is a Brexit election though. Brexit is an issue which has split the country into Leave and Remain voters. Traditional patterns of voting for each party may well not apply.

I’m grateful to Morgan Griffith-David for doing this work for me so I don’t have to, but the poll only gives us 13 seats, it puts us in touching distance in another 23. This should concentrate the minds of pro-Remain voters. For example, Brecon and Radnorshire is projected as Conservative 49%, Lib Dem 35%, Labour 14%. It doesn’t take a genius to work out what Labour voters need to do to stop the Tories, whose vote is not split by the Brexit party this time.

YouGov MRP has Lib Dems winning

Bath
Carshalton
Cheltenham
East Dunbartonshire
Edinburgh West
Kingston
Orkney
OxWAb
Richmond Park
Sheffield Hallam
St Albans
Twickenham
Westmoreland

Fun times team, fun times.

— Morgan G-D (@LiberalMorgan) November 27, 2019

Near LD misses on YouGov

Caithness 1%
S Cambs, NE Fife 2%
Winchester 3%
Cheadle, Guilford 5%
Lewis, N Norfolk, St Ives 6%
Kensington 8%
Hazel Grove 9%
Eastbourne, Wokingham, Ceredigion 10%
Wells, Esher, Chelsea 11%
TAY 12%
Wimbledon, Cities 13%
Brecon 14%
Wantage, Putney 15%

— Morgan G-D (@LiberalMorgan) November 27, 2019

These, and others, are the seats where Remainers really need to get behind the Lib Dems to stop Boris Johnson getting a majority which will enable him to inflict Brexit hell on the country.