BBC national projected vote share

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BBC national projected vote share

By Alex Foster | Fri 5th June 2009 - 3:38 pm

Interesting set of vote share results from the BBC based on the first few hundred council seat results, where they are giving the following numbers:

Lib Dem – 28% (2005: 28% 2008: 25% )
Tory – 38% (2005: 31% 2008: 44%)
Labour – 23% (2005: 33% 2008: 24%)

Labour’s result is one of the lowest they have ever seen.

The context of those old results is all important. Labour have plumetted 10% from the last time these seats were contested, with the loss of the general election day boost hitting them as hard as the political climate.

The Tory vote share has actually fallen from last year, despite this bunch of largely county councils is typically fertile Tory territory. That said they have seen a significant increase over 2005.

For the Lib Dems, we’re on no change since 2005, but with an improved showing over last year.

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8 Comments

Hywel 5th Jun '09 - 4:18pm

Are those actual share or predicted national vote share?

I don’t think you can compare the 2005 and 2008 figures.
Hywel 5th Jun '09 - 5:36pm

The BBC’s 2009 figures seem to be projected national vote share.

If we are on 28% PNVS than that reverses what has been a decline since 2004 IIRC
sanbikinoraion 5th Jun '09 - 5:38pm

We are still down a good 35 seats though, as of 5.40pm Friday.
Iain BB 5th Jun '09 - 7:57pm

I trust the BBC are being tackled about their coverage. Jeremy Vine has said all the parties are suffering from the sleaze despite our vote up 3% and there is little or no mention of us being second in the popular vote
Different Duncan 5th Jun '09 - 9:50pm

Put these into UK Polling Report’s Uniform Swing Calculator:

Con 338
Lab 190
LD 93

Con majority 26

So even though we would get 5% more votes, we would get half the seats.
Alex Foster 5th Jun '09 - 10:05pm

sanbikinoraion: down to -8 by 10pm.
Kevin O'Connor 6th Jun '09 - 1:06am

Hywel – you can compare these figures with 05 as the projected national share is calculated to simulate a general election

What is a little disingenuous is the comment in Alix’s post that the Tory vote drop is in spite of yesterday being in better areas for the Tories, as the PNS calculations are weighted to correct for that.

What frustrated me today was that wheneve the BBC read out the PNS they still read our vote out third, even though we came second
ianosborne 6th Jun '09 - 8:53am

Speaker Poll – John Bercow (probably the only Tory I could stomach in the role