Crewe & Nantwich: what the result is looking like

The Voice’s Lib Dem sources are saying it is likely to be Conservative 45-50% range, Labour 25-30% and Liberal Democrats 15-20% range, which is in line with what’s been said elsewhere. Big Conservative win, massive drop in the Labour vote, Liberal Democrat vote little changed from the general election.

First verdicts: good news for the Conservatives, bad news for Labour as the defeat will be at the grimmest end of their predictions, and relief for Liberal Democrats that the London elections style two-party squeeze has been avoided.

UPDATE: We hear party is expecting about an 8% swing from Labour to Liberal Democrats. At a general election, such a swing would deliver around 20 gains.

ELECTORAL TRIVIA UPDATE: An 8% swing from Labour to the Liberal Democrats at the next general election would deliver Birmingham Hall Green as a Liberal Democrat gain. The current MP for Hall Green in Steve McCabe, the man in charge of Labour’s Crewe & Nantwich campaign.

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This entry was posted in Parliamentary by-elections.
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14 Comments

  • Very big turnout at 58.2%

  • 8% swing Lab -> Lib? Now that’s not the standard calculation of swing, I’m sure, it usually involves parties in 1st and 2nd…!

  • Iain Roberts 23rd May '08 - 9:31am

    @Kevin Davis: except, of course, that Lab/Con typically get squeezed a lot more than 4% when they’re in third place in a by-election.

  • Mark Williams 23rd May '08 - 2:09pm

    Spot on, although as usual the LibDEm aspiration is overstated.

  • If we overstate by enough then by the time it’s been ignored and watered down in the press, we might just about be treated fairly and seen for what we are.

  • It was a bad result for the Lib Dems, as it seemed we had a good candidate, lots of effort and our vote went down.

    We need to start working out how we can do better otherwise we won’t do better.

    In the euro elections last time we got 14% ? on the same day as we got 27% in the local elections – it’s awful and the party ought to be doing something to stop it happening again, instead we had the (to the public) incomprehensible we support a referendum, just not this one lunacy.

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