Lib Dem Voice polled our members-only forum recently to discover what Lib Dem members think of various political issues, the Coalition, and the performance of key party figures. Some 650 party members have responded, and we’re publishing the full results.
You say Eastleigh shows…
There will probably be a hung parliament with the Tories under pressure from Ukip, the Lib Dems digging in against the Tories, and Labour the largest single party
LDV asked: I think the Eastleigh by-election result shows… (Respondents could choose multiple options.)
-
75% – Ukip will pose a significant threat to the Conservatives at the next general election
54% – Labour is most likely to end up as the largest single party after the next general election
53% – The Lib Dems can hope to retain most/all the seats we’re defending against the Conservatives
53% – A ‘hung Parliament’ is the most likely result at the next general election
26% – Ukip will win at least one seat at the next general election
24% – The Lib Dems can hope to make net gains from the Conservatives at the next election
24% – Ukip will pose a significant threat to the Lib Dems at the next general election
19% – Ukip will pose a significant threat to Labour at the next general election
11% – The Lib Dems will lose a significant number of seats to the Conservatives at the next election
2% – The Conservatives are most likely to end up as the largest single party after the next general election
10% – Other
4% – None of these
1% – Don’t know
Here are some of your comments:
I don’t think Eastleigh shows anything in regards to a general election 2 years away
We have no idea how we would fend against Labour
Local champions allowed us to hold Eastleigh in the face of vicious UKIP campaign and growing LD unpopularity – we can’t extrapolate to 2015!
Where we work we win!
The result is encouraging but cannot be seen to reflect national chances; our strength will lie in local campaigns (even where this is supported by national themes) and I am cautious of making generalised comments based on one by election. It has shown, however, that we can win and knowing that will help morale/skills when we go into the next election.
Lib Dems will have a net result of seats that is the same as 2010 but there will be a churn of seats we hold (probably fewer in the North but more in the South)
We lost 47% of the 2010 vote in Eastleigh – alarm bells should be ringing
The Lib Dems have done a good job locally over the years and they reap their rewards, I do not think it can be applied to all other constituencies. Not to mention the resources that were available there.
UKIP may well help Labour win an overall majority on a low vote share by affecting marginal seats. And help Lib Dems hang on in a few seats and even help us make the odd gain from the Conservatives. We are still vulnerable to losing seats to Conservatives where Labour resurgence is stronger than in Eastleigh.
The Eastleigh by-election result tells us what happened at Eastleigh in the by-election. No more, no less.
Lib Dems can hope to win some seats against Tories
Both governing parties are unpopular
When the Lib Dems concentrate on getting the message across at a local level we can be successful, but we can’t rely on using the national media
We like Mike
Where is “we’ll lose seats to Labour”?
It is far too early to make predictions
Even in a seat where we have all the councillors and an excellent local reputation we are so unpopular that we still drop 15 points.
I think some of these are true, but I don’t think any of them are shown by Eastleigh, which as a high-profile mid-term by-election is a Special Case.
Put Keith House in charge of the country
We will see Lib Dem MPs in certain seats ‘bucking the trend’ and holding their seats, while our national vote share will go down.
That our party has resilience, even if it does not have good leadership. The result was a triumph for the party, not Nick Clegg.
We did well inter alia because we concentrated big resources there. This is not possible in a general election and so the result is of very limited significance.
The voters are still fed up with politics and politicians.
That the Lib Dems were able to win the Eastleigh by-election
* Stephen was Editor (and Co-Editor) of Liberal Democrat Voice from 2007 to 2015, and writes at The Collected Stephen Tall.
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8 Comments
Theres an interesting poll from Opinium, following the same idea as ICMs “Wisdom Index” they ask voters to predict what they think will happen in 2015, not what they want. The results are :
Con maj 9%
Con + Libdem 16%
Lab + Libdem 29%
Lab maj 25%
If you prefer the totals for each party :
Total Lab 54%
Total Libdem 45%
Total Con 25%
Outside the “Westminster bubble” most voters agree with us that we are likely to be in Government again.
But, sadly, most voters do not understand how the electoral system in this country really works.
So, most voter have not got a clue how their own idea of the political mood in the country (even if this is vaguely right) will translate into seats in the House of Commons.
I can understand how many people can see that UKIP will pose a threat, especially to the Tories at the GE. What I can’t understand is how they deduce, from the Eastleigh result, that Labour is likely to be the largest party! Or that the Lib Dems are likely to retain all or most of the seats won in 2010.
Eastleigh was a fantastic experience, a reminder of some of the great by-elections of the past. It has a benign Prozac effect on party activits, desperately seeking something to offer cheer
It must be in the top dozen best-run constituencies in the country, and supplemented by thousands of outside helpers and a six-figure spend, victory should never have been in doubt.
But to think it could be replicated in every seat we hold is to stetch optimism past its limit. Or it is while we stick to the same policies. Unless we make a radical change back to our traditional values and principles, I fear we will be doomed.
Tim13: the problem is that only the south of England has seats like Eastleigh. It tells us nothing about Labour – which will sweep back north of the severn. Oddly ukip may throw the libdems a lifeline south of the severn, by dplitting the Tory vote, but it won’t be anything that we do that causes that. Basically, it’s the same boundaries as last time and the Tories have shed about 1/3 of their vote – from a time in which they couldn’t get a majority even with Gordon Brown insulting old ladies. Undeserved Labour landslide ahead !
There seems to be an assumption that the shift of votes in Eastleigh was Tory>>Ukip, LD>ukip, Lab- no change.
How about Tory>LD Tory>>Ukip, LD>> Lab, Lab>>Ukip, Tory>Lab?
Only the Agent and his staff with the Switch Analysis tab in Connect (EARS?) really know.
What is clear is that the Liberal Democrat Party held the seat. (Well done Mike Thornton and Keith House). Nick Clegg, MP nearly blew it for us. Now Clegg and his advisers seem to think we shouldn’t be attacking Cameron any more – we should be cosying even closer to him to save him from UKIP and his own right wing. Why??
This all seems to be happening since David Laws (“I think academies are marvellous” and “I think the Ebac is miles better than GCSEs”) and Jeremy Browne (“Secret courts are necessary to protect us all from terrorism”) were promoted to their present posts.
The Orange bookers seem to justify every Labourite slur on our Party – except that Labour in Government were even more illiberal and anti-democratic!
We have to build bridges and repair trust to younger people damaged through the tuition fees / university funding issue.
When asked on election campaigns have always explained we was allowed by the coalition agreement only one large spending commitment:
Either abolishing/reducing tuition fees and losing tax cuts for low paid
OR taking all earnings less than £10k/year out of tax altogether and losing part of our university education package. We chose tax cuts for low paid as this will provide more help to the most people that need it.
Remember how Brown broke his word to increase income tax on the lowest paid from 10% to 20%. Could we allow this to continue?
If we would insisted on both, we may have got neither.
We need to recruit new supporters and sign-up members, particularly young people between now and 2014 !!!!!
We won despite Clewgg, a terrible leader!