That’s the message from an interesting research nugget quoted by the Financial Times:
A careful study by the Peterson Institute of 115 uses of economic sanctions by major countries between 1950 and 1990 concluded that, in about a third of cases, they helped those wielding them achieve their goals. The research shows they were most likely to be successful when this objective was modest and clear, the target was in a weakened position, economic links were significant, sanctions were heavy, and the duration was limited.
Helping in only one in three cases leaves an awful lot of misery and horror unaffected, though given how often they are caused by complex situations lacking easy answers, to have as relatively simple a tool as sanctions help out as often as one in three times still makes for a remarkably large amount of good that can be done.
The prompt for the FT to quote this research was the news that, finally, the US is imposing sanctions against Syria, as the (likely) death toll in that country topped 1,000 in the face of continuing protests against the country’s dictatorial rulers.
There’s a macabre and harsh light which death totals throw on foreign policy concerns: in some countries deaths can be numbered in the tens to get international attention and action; in some it has to reach the hundreds; in others the thousands; and in an appalling few cases it’s only when the death toll hits the tens of thousands that the international community does more than issue the occasional note of regret.
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5 Comments
After Iraq, Afghanistan and Libya – and also Sierra Leone and Kosovo it would be interesting to work out the success rate of military interventions as well.
Mark – Do you have a link to the actual study at all? It’s just that as presented in the FT it appears to make some very cosy assumptions. What about a case like the Greek sanctions on the Republic of Macedonia. They were an affront to decency yet nothing was done by soft-headed Europeans. Greece was allowed to become a rogue state.
It just seems that the report as presented is a bit black and white and suggests that those who wield sanctions are generally in the right.
Generally speaking sanctions are being undermined by China and other similar countries. The bigger picture is that western power is in decline, and we should think about that before committing ourselves to bombing Libya and other places.
Indeed, absolutely, and to your list can be added those conflicts that cause deaths in the millions without meriting much outrage: http://matthewfharris.blogspot.com/2011/06/news-from-israels-border-with-syria.html
Duncan – I believe the figures are taken from this book: http://bookstore.piie.com/book-store/4082.html (which is a wider study).