“I will only really believe it when I see it in print!” – so read a text message to me from one of the party’s senior campaign strategists after news started spreading about the latest poll:
BPIX/Mail on Sunday: Lib Dem 32%, Conservative 31%, Labour 28%
ComRes/Independent/Mirror: Conservative 31%, Lib Dem 29%, Labour 27%
ICM/Sunday Telegraph: Conservative 34%, Labour 29%, Lib Dem 27%
OnePoll/People: Lib Dem 33%, Conservative 27%, Labour 23%
YouGov/Sunday Times: Conservative 33%, Labour 30%, Lib Dem 29%
The YouGov poll gives Nick Clegg the eye-watering personal ratings on doing well/badly as party leader of 81% versus 9%. At the height of the Iraq war backlash, Charles Kennedy’s rating on this question wording was ‘only’ +44%.
So what on earth to make of this all?
First things first: my scepticism of BPIX remains and OnePoll (due to their newness and similar lack of transparency) should also be treated cautiously, but their figures are in line with those of the other pollsters – even if they are the only ones to give the Liberal Democrats the hugely symbolic edge into first place.
Second, all the polls are telling much the same picture, within the usual margins of error. The pattern across them all is also of the Conservatives being hit more than Labour by the Liberal Democrat surge: Tories down 4% on average, Labour down 2%. (Others are also being squeezed.)
Third, as I wrote this morning, newspaper editors do not like getting too far out of step from their readers. Having numerous readers supporting the Liberal Democrats won’t turn the Sun into a cheerleader for the party, but we’ve seen far more positive coverage for the Liberal Democrats in papers such as The Sun and the Daily Mail, even whilst they’ve also been putting the boot in.
Fourth, there have been previous sharp increases in Liberal Democrat, Alliance and before that Liberal support. Most recently, after victory in the 2003 Brent East by-election polls showed a surge for the party, including an NOP poll that put all three main parties on 31%. That surge quickly deflated – but thanks to causes which give reasons for cautious optimism this time.
Previous surges have come and then gone because the news agenda moved on. There are only so many times you can report “… and the Liberal Democrats dramatically won…”. In 2003 after Brent East came the Liberal Democrat party conference – but then it was off to Labour and Tory conferences and the media’s attention moved on.
However, this time round the media isn’t moving on to other stories: the state of the election campaign is the story until May 6th. Moreover, it’s not that there’s been one TV debate and now it’s on to other campaign reports. There are two more debates, nicely spaced out between now and polling day, to come. There is also a record breaking volume of polling which, so far, is keeping the “Liberal Democrats doing well” story running.
So whilst pessimists will be thinking of 2003, expecting the bubble to soon burst, optimists will be thinking of 1974. In February 1974 the Liberals surged forward at the general election, thanks to a charismatic leader and a run of Parliamentary by-election victories that gave the party vital momentum. The chance of the right series of by-elections at the right time doesn’t often come the way of a party; it did for the Liberals in with Rochdale, Sutton and Cheam, Ripon, the Isle of Ely, and Berwick. Perhaps in 2010 the sequence of three TV debates during the campaign will the equivalent of that early 1970s run of by-elections?
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46 Comments
Looks like a Diana moment. Will it last to may 6?
Almost certain to be a third party squeeze in votes, surely?
If Lib-Dems had an overall majority we might as well emmigrate:
1 The international markets would close our country down
2 Lib-Dem policies are almost all gimmicks and positional ie they are worked out so as to look god presentationally alongside labour (and to lesser extent, Cons) Ones. The disasters would include civil unrest for certain.
3 . . Naaah, peeps are going to work out 1 & 2 above, so no dice. get more honest rather than just look good alongside the Tories and you might replace them, after they’ve split anyway . . .
Its better being up than being down!
I’ve been posting for the last couple of years that we still had all to play for – the publics old voting ties are very loose at present. Lets keep up the pressure – its not over until the Polls close on May 6th.
Oh Quietzapple keep those coments coming – they spur me on to make sure we maximise that Lib Dem vote!
Out again on the door steps tomorrow – great days to be a Lib Dem & I’m going to enjoy them!!
Lord, the aspiration of you people is to maintain a Diana style hysteria to May 6?
Reality (some):
The National Minimum Wage – uprated annually – brenefiting at least a million people per year
The shortest waiting times since NHS records began; whatever your condition, you will not have to wait more than 18 weeks from GP referral to the start of hospital treatment
Three million more operations carried out each year than in 1997, with more than double the number of heart operations
Over 44,000 more doctors
Over 89,000 more nurses
Oh, do you tell folk on Tax Credits you “say” you’re going to abolish them? Even the tories aren’t going to do that.
The ICM/Telegraph poll may be the most significant. It was largely sampled BEFORE Thursday’s debate and still showed a 6% Lib Dem increase. That suggests these polls are not a post debate flash in the pan but show, to put in mildly, the Lib Dems got the best of the first week of the campaign, including manifesto launches.
The manifestos had nothing to do with it (so far – Heh heh Heh!) and polls have shown Lib-Dems +4, -2 all over the lower place in past week or so.
Volatility doth not a stable sample make, and elections tend to be fairly stable, people are thinking towards the election.
Look at this, based not on the Question, How would you vote tomorrow, but Which Government would you prefer:
http://quietzapple-musing.blogspot.com/2009/08/labour-44-or-conservative-42.html
Months back I posted re that poll on the blog on ConsHome. NOW they deleted my quite reasonable polite post. Fail. Amusing, but then you are the new tories really I suppose . . so you may not be amused . .
Quietzapple: No problem with the national minimum wage, after all, it was a Liberal Government that first invented it, introducing it for the lace industry and coal miners, against the odds, as the Tories were hostile and tried to vote it down…
Look, we are leading in two natinal newspaper opinion polls, and beating Labour in others, which are read by millions…for gawds sake, get a life, get over it.
If Polling Day was this weekend we would certainly do incredibly well.
However, Polling Day is two and a half weeks away and as any campaigner knows you have to ‘peak’ at the end of the campaign, not half-way through.
If (and it’s still a big ‘IF’) we can keep the momentum going for another 19 days, then anything is possible.
But expectations of NC will be far higher now and everything we say / do will be scrutinised and challenged in far greater detail than before.
Still, I’d rather be on 27 to 33 per cent than 17 to 20 per cent at this stage… and if the second debate goes well just 48 hours before postal voters start receiving their ballot papers then who knows what might happen.
I’ve certainly found a better response when out campaigning today than I can remember in any General Election since February 1974… people who I know don’t normally vote for us or even vote at all telling me that they will certainly be voting Lib. Dem. this time.
Interesting times…
1974 started slowly – it wasnt until the others started to attack us did the commentators begin to take us half seriously, and the attacks gave us some “street cred” pulling us into the central debates. If they had carried on ignoring us it wouldnt have been anything like as good and we wouldnt have pulled in six million votes. What we badly need now is for Cameron and Brown to up the anti, in the longer run it will do us good and it means we wont be seen to be in the margins.
Hahahahahaha!
Well if it isn’t my old sparring partner at the Guardian – QuitsTheBottle – that well known (to himself anyway) Tribal Labour Supporter and dipsomaniac of the blogs.
Still banging on about the pointless Labour Party I see – did you happen to to see the Telegraph piece about 30 charities all lining up to denounce Labour from reneging on their commitments for funding these charities, having made a big song & dance about it previously.
Isn’t that just typical of Labour – all hype and largesse . . . then when the cameras have gone, they sordidly ‘forget’ all about their commitments to the charities.
Still . . . good to see you so exercised about the onward march of the Lib Dems . . . they’re going to kick Labour and the Tories asses. woohoo!
Whoever it was who designed the Tory garden posters has done us an enormous favour. They must be the worst on record. How could any ad man worth his salt think that washed out pale blue mixed with white would grab people’s attention?
Dunno if it’s come through on the doorstep though … Has anyone found people on the doorstep who are genuinely changing their vote yet? Was out canvassing (for another party) in two South London wards today (one held by C, the other by L) and we didn’t find any voters suddenly keen on Lib Dems because of Clegg’s TV performance … Having said that, there wasn’t a huge amount of enthusiasm for us, more a plague on all their houses …
So your pet Silent Hunter can libel me, but I may not point to his innumerable attacks elsewhere . . ? sigh . .
Aaaah Liberty! (Reprise, as its too short)
Perhaps someone should cut out the Peter Obourne column from the Mail on Sunday and under the headline “What The Papers Say” put that out in a leaflet….
Google the Mail on Sunday and have a smile…brilliant stuff.
“First things first: my scepticism of BPIX remains and OnePoll (due to their newness and similar lack of transparency) should also be treated cautiously, but their figures are in line with those of the other pollsters”
Actually I am not so sceptical about BPIX, though there is an unfortunate lack of transparency there.
But I am sceptical about OnePoll, and their figure for Labour is really _not_ in line with those of other pollsters, but a full 5 points below the average of the others you quote (though oddly enough it would still leave Labour the biggest party in the Commons on UNS). Anthony Wells says of OnePoll “I have still not confirmed whether these polls have any proper attempt at sampling or political weighting, and would treat it with great scepticism.” He appears to be completely excluding OnePoll from his summary table and polling average.
Why might there be LOTS of dodgy polls when it is being suggested that the Lib Dems are overtaking Labour?
Is it the Trades Unions? Is it the poor paying £££ for the wonderful Polling Peeps?
It Might be conservatives wanting to split the anti – tory vote? Foreign based Tories???
In answer to Simon, yes, I was out on the doorsteps on Saturday and did find a surprisingly large number of people who I know for a fact either didn’t vote Lib. Dem. or didn’t vote at all in past elections but who said they were certainly going to vote Lib. Dem. this time.
One guy who I’ve worked with on several (non-political) campaigns over the past 20 years has repeatedly told me in that time that he hasn’t voted since 1979 when he voted for Thatcher. This time he is not only voting Lib. Dem. but has asked for poster stakes for his garden.
Whether it’s a good thing for the Lib. Dems. to be attracting past Thatcherites is a matter for debate in itself but it does show the mood swing amongst the electorate since the Leaders debate.
The question is, will that momentum continue? If it does we are all in for a fascinating last 19 days.
Yes, its definitely happening and it does feel like 74 – I remember that’s why I joined…. Our canvassing and everything else has gone mad since Thursday. it was going pretty well before but now is a tidal wave. Can we keep it – dunno. But this is the boost we needed and it makes us the issue and the focus. I can see the battle has changed and the voters can see there is a real choice and something to think about – good for democracy surely.
this in my view is a mixture of 2003 and 74′
the surge will no boubt settle down and cam will have a few days to work out the message in the next debate.
the libs will be under more scrutiny with some very left wing policies.bashing the productive and rich is popular at the moment,but very negative for the country.
this is more interesting.
can they consolidate and become the second party? i think so.labour have a generational problem.do they run the 2015 genreral election on old or new labour? both dont work. a massive opportunity for other left of centre parties like the libs to really get in here.
if the libs went into coallition with labour,i think this would severely damage the above senario,being tainted with labour, for what would be a very short parliament.
short termism killed them in scotland.the labour/lib government made them both unpopular.
the best senarion for clegg; a conservative victory with say 10/ 20 seat majority.the libs are needed for votes,they can loose their reactionary,rich bashing,wing (cable etal) and start to look like they could run the place.then they really could do it in 2015.
My wife (who grew up in Russia) made an amusing point yesterday:
“You know, when Russian election coverage is rigged to exclude smaller parties it’s also the Liberal Democrats who benefit the most, but at least the irony in their name is intentional.”
Made me laugh anyway.
“1 The international markets would close our country down”
This would be because Vince Cable is seen as such a flake compared that credible man of substance George Osbourne would it?
“bashing the productive and rich ”
The point is, as the vast majority of the productive and not very rich know, that those two things do not necessarily run together.
One of the reasons Nick is going down so well is because his message about fairness, particularly as expressed by our tax and education policies, is one that reflects the day to day experience of millions of productive, hard-working people. Like the nurses who get a measly pay rise while the managers get one three times the rate of inflation.
Three points
1. Its amazing how little the BBC is taking notice of the surge in LibDem support
2, Tory spokesmen are still telling the electorate that the only choice for prime Minister is Gordon Brown or David Cameron. Nick Clegg has just to continue telling the electorate that they are the Kingmakers and not the Tories
3. Before the debate last Thursday, opinion polls showed that a)the electorate wanted Vince Cable as Chancellor b) The largest number of electors want a hung parliament rather than the two old parties.
Only a vote for the Liberal Democrats can give the electorate both of the things they want.
Only the Liberal Democrats have the Principles, the Policies and the Political Will to deliver the change that this Country needs.
1. Its amazing how little the BBC is taking notice of the surge in LibDem support
Yes the election news on the on 5 Live concentrates on Hagues vacuous attack on our European stance. I’m getting pretty sick of the BBC to be honest. The Beeb are scared stiff of a Tory victory and are trying to butter them up in the very vain hope that this will protect them from being prune back drastically.
Peter Chegwyn … the other thing we have found this week (pre the debate, so may be reinforced now by Cleggmania) is that there are a lot more people who are openly considering tactical voting which I haven’t seen before in these wards (going back to ’01 GE). We’ve found a lot of Cs and Ss who are going to vote tactically for the Lib Dems at a national level at least (in a constituency where you are 2nd), so I can guess if you can convince enough people then you might get the ‘by-election effect’ in a lot more constituencies that we’d expect.
While I think the Lib Dem surge is great for democracy (I’m a rare fan of PR in my party), do you have enough money and enough people on the ground to take advantage of it across the country?
“First they ignore you, then they laugh at you, then they fight you, then you win.” (Gandhi)
We’re about to go into phase 3 – and then …
Just watching The Politics Show and was wondering why the BBC interviewed TWO Murdoch journalists, one from The Times and one from The Sun to discuss the leaders debates?
Simon asks if the impact of the debate is coming through on the canvass. I can assure him it is. I loathe doing phone canvassing (like revising for exams when I was young) I will normally do ANYTHING to get out of it. But the other day I actually enjoyed phone canvassing (in Newcastle North) because the debate made an excellent point of reference and it was certainly making people switch.
Tonight’s YouGov poll has the Lib Dems moving into first place, with a quite remarkable 7-point lead over Labour:
LDEM 33%(+4)
CON 32%(-1)
LAB 26%(-4)
The dam has burst.
It is Ceausescu moment in British politics.
I can hear Brown and Cameron yelling out…”go back…go back”. Is it possible that no one is listening?
Given that YouGov has tended to show higher Labour percentages and lower Lib Dem ones than other pollsters, it wouldn’t be surprising if more polls in the next few days showed larger Lib Dem leads, particularly over Labour.
Neither 1974 or 2003 – it’s 2010 and anything coudl happen, but I don’t believe that the poll surge will fade away.
Well, don’t let Clegg shoot any Great Danes, and maybe you can just sustain those figure till May.
“Dunno if it’s come through on the doorstep though … Has anyone found people on the doorstep who are genuinely changing their vote yet?”
Yes. In Lewisham, the long-term Labour voters are coming over in droves.
“Neither 1974 or 2003 – it’s 2010 and anything coudl happen…”
I agree, Mouse. I agree. This really must be a new dawn!
It’s no worse than us attracting past socialists. And anyway surely the Liberals’ drop in support in 1979 compared to 1974 was largely due to 1974 Liberal voters going ‘back home’ to the Tories. Having voted Tory during the Thatcher era doesn’t make one an ideologically committed “Thatcherite”; most ordinary voters are not that ideologically minded.
“One guy who I’ve worked with on several (non-political) campaigns over the past 20 years has repeatedly told me in that time that he hasn’t voted since 1979 when he voted for Thatcher…. Whether it’s a good thing for the Lib. Dems. to be attracting past Thatcherites is a matter for debate…”
Be fair, Simon. He voted for Thatcher in 1979, not 1983 or 1987. Surely that suggests he is not a Thatcherite. Plenty of people voted for the Tories in 1979 because they wanted to get rid of the failing Labour government, but were then shocked by the reality of the 1980s Conservative government. If he gave up voting in 1979 it suggests he was disillusioned, not a Thatcherite.
For that matter, it is worth saying that many of those who supported the Tories throughout the 1980s were the upper working and lower middle classes (C1s and C2s in socio-economic speak), to whom she offered tax cuts and the opportunity to own one’s own council home. This is the same group that we are appealing to with the £10,000 personal allowance. They are an important voting group and one that feels that it falls between the two stools of benefit recipients and those wealthy enough to look after themselves. I would welcome these people into our party.
Well done Nick and the Lib Dems! But surely this polling underlines the rotteness of our current electoral system. If one in three electors voted for the Lib Dems, we would only win a sixth of the seats due to electoral boundaries that favour Labour and the Tories. Why should a vote for the Lib Dems be worth half a vote for the other two?
Three polls tonight.
Angus Reid
LD – 32
Con -32
Lab – 24
Opinium
LD – 29
Con – 32
Lab – 26
YouGov for Sun
LD – 31
Con – 33
Lab – 27
What does it all mean? It confirms that the UK political kaleidoscope has been given a good shake.
What is the most likely outcome in terms of parliamentary seats won and lost? Labour greatly over represented. Conservative greatly over represented. Liberal Democrats severely under represented.
Is it possible that there will be public outrage when the inequities of the Westminster voting system are fully revealed? Yes…its possible.
“Is it possible that there will be public outrage when the inequities of the Westminster voting system are fully revealed? Yes…its possible.”
If the result in terms of votes is anything like this, then it strikes me that the Lib Dems would have a very strong case for demanding a referendum on STV as the price of supporting a minority government, even (perhaps, depending how things turn out) to the extent of forcing a second election if the demand is not met.
Perhaps the most instructive thing one can read about hung Parliament negotiations after an indecisive election is – perhaps surprisingly – to be found buried away in the archive of Margaret Thatcher’s papers.
It’s (former Cabinet Secretary) Robert Armstrong’s hour-by-hour account of the Feb ’74 hung Parliament situation. It was prepared as a Cabinet aide memoire and shows the practical impact of some of the precedent :
http://www.margaretthatcher.org/document/E39D78DE7FBF4C7583FDFC8F7A029D42.pdf
Has anyone tried the website http://www.myvoteadvisor.com? i just gave it a go and got these results:
Liberal Democrats 43%
Conservatives 40%
Green Party 36%
UKIP 35%
Labour 25%
BNP 18%
Interesting especially as i expeted to vote Conservatives!
It didn’t take long bt you dont have to answer all the questions to get results.. only policies you feel strongly about or apply to you. what did everyone else get?
Doesn’t anyone else but me remember watching “The Amazing Mrs Pritchard” a few years back starring Jane Horrocks. It was a series about a surprise election upset with a popular surge of support given for a spuermarket market worker who decided to run for Parliament. I thought at the time “in a media age this could just happen” .
In confirmation witness the Sue Boyle thing – and she went on to sell millions of her album.
The press coverage Nick Clegg is getting proves that the media can drive the agenda. We have “The Amazing Mr Clegg” phenomenum. True life imitates drama.
In every century there is a Liberal surge Election and this is the one in 2010 when an outstanding and charismatic Liberal Leader emerges head and shoulders above the rest.
In 1906 General Election there were 410 Liberal MP`s and only 157 Tory MP`s.
Chris Huhne has stated that about half of Labour voters do so only to keep the Tories out and vica versa with the Tories so the Liberal Democrat surge of over 10% can easily be seen as a voter correction and if the case then Liberal Democrat Government is now inevitable in 2010.
Nick Clegg has said for every vote for a Lib.Dem. you will get you what is on the tin.
A vote for Nick Clegg is also a vote for a very inspiring, talented and gifted Team including Chris Huhne,David Laws,Vince Cable,Ed Davey,Simon Hughes, Sarah Teather, Paddy Ashdown……
I predict our Leader will again be the highest achiever in the next rounds of the TV debates on Foreign Policy and the Economy.
If you think Murdoch is having too much say in this election visit
http://www.avaaz.org/en/the_kingmaker/?vl
The dodgy polls are like 2010.
Much of the rest is like 1970 & 1992, with sooo many chickens having their legs counted or talked off.
Poor p poor Orange Book Nick Clegg doesn’t seem to have convinced anyone that he would make a good PM, just that supporting him is a “Plague upon your houses” message. As Lord Toby Harris puts it:
The Ipsos MORI analysis in The Observer gives some interesting analysis of public perceptions of the three Party Leaders.
Actually, interesting is not the word – it is devastating for Nick Clegg and pretty awful for David Cameron.
When asked which of the three Party leaders would be best in a crisis, only 12% rated Nick Clegg (33% favoured David Cameron and 40% Gordon Brown).
On who is the most capable, Clegg only scored 17% (with 33% and 36% for the Cameron and Brown respectively).
And on who best understands world problems, Clegg could only muster 14% and Cameron 23%, while Gordon Brown scored 45%.
So with bombs in New York, melt-down in Greece, climate change, a fragile economy, and troops in Afghanistan, the message is quie clear:
“It’s no time for a novice.”
http://www.lordtobyharris.org.uk/2010/05/
12% isn’t very many, almost half the %age who voted Lib-Dem last time.