Mitt Romney won yesterday’s low profile Maine caucus. (No Democrat contest.)
In those states where at least one poll has taken place post-Iowa, McCain is ahead in thirteen, Romney in just two. On the Democrat side, it is thirteen-three in Clinton’s favour over Obama. For both Romney and Obama one of the states they are leading in is their home state. (Data from pollster.com).
A (near) knock-out result is more likely on the Republican than Democrat side when more than half of the US goes to the polls on Tuesday, as the Republicans have “winner-takes-all” primary election rules. On the Democrat side generally more proportional rules means just losing in a state can still win you delegates and so the gap in delegate numbers between the candidate who triumphs on Tuesday and the one who doesn’t is likely to be much smaller on the Democrat side.
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3 Comments
You can add Utah to Obama’s column – Pollster.com doesn’t seem to have this poll (which shows him opening up a 2:1 lead over Clinton, reversing last month’s position).
The picture we get from these polls is rather misleading, actually. Obama’s position is a lot better than the top-line results suggest. For a start, he raised $32 MILLION (to Hillary’s $10m) in January alone and is spending it with wild abandon, he’s had a string of major endorsements (including the activist-rich MoveOn.org), and he seems to have hoovered up John Edwards’ support from the netroots community. All of this means that there has been a major upsurge in his support which could well carry him to victory in a number of close states on Tuesday – just look at this national graph and you’ll see what I mean.
So for starters, I wouldn’t be at all surprised if Obama picks up Alabama, Connecticut and Missouri – his momentum in those three is massive and some of the most recent polls have shown him in a statistical tie with Clinton. And then there’s Alaska, Delaware, Minnesota, Kansas, Idaho, New Mexico, and North Dakota – all of which are too close to call based on the sparse (or non-existant!) data available.
The biggest shock of the night though could well be California – Obama is closing fast and pouring resources into the state, and two of the most recent polls have even shown him with small leads.
So I count 15 of the 22 states that vote on Tuesday that could be up for grabs for Team Obama. I very much doubt he will win that many – 10 would be an excellent score – but the result of this is by no means certain yet.
In many states though (certainly California) an overall win is irrelevant in delegate terms. Delegates are allocated on perforance at a district level so it is possible to win the primary overall but not get most delegates. I think Hilary did this in NH.
If there is a split on Tuesday then this could run all the way to the convention floor and the superdelegates could come in to play big time. Hilary currently has a big lead among those – though that could all change over the coming months.
The Republican contest is interesting because neither candidate is completely acceptable to the Evangelical right.
McCain has moderate tendencies (though his jingoistic bluster leaves one wondering), while Romney managed to become Governor of Massachussetts by posing as a moderate, and is a Mormon (something that offends both Evangelicals AND liberals).
Increasingly, both candidates are leaving us with the distinct impression that they are deeply unpleasant people, more than willing to play dirty to get votes.
This should harm McCain more than Romney, given the former’s voluable “clean up politics” rhetoric, and carefully cultivated image as a “nice guy”.
I think what is pushing McCain into the lead is the preception that he is more electable than Romney. But that may change after 9 months of the man at close quarters.
Romney seems to be the favoured candidate of the elite, but they will live with McCain if they have to. If he gets the nomination, he will be sat in the chair and told the score, just as Reagan was. You can have the status and all that goes with it, but real power will continue to repose elsewhere. Prepare to have a keyhole drilled in your back.