Tag Archives: henley by-election

Chris Rennard writes about the Henley result…

I am enjoying this debate and for the record:

1) I don’t always comment in detail on things read by our opponents – but I do welcome any constructive debate within the party on these issues – especially contributions from those who also work hard in these campaigns.

2) I am not generally “hands on” in the organisation and management of our by-elections these days (unlike when I was Director of Campaigns & Elections 1989-2003 or a member of the team in various by-elections from Edge Hill in 1979 to Greenwich in 1987). But as Chief Executive (in the structure debated and …

Posted in News and Parliamentary by-elections | Also tagged | 110 Comments

Not had your fill of Henley analysis yet?

Then why not seek out former Lib Dem media chief Mark Littlewood’s analysis in today’s Telegraph? I don’t agree with it all, but here’s a thought-provoking extract to chew on:

The truth is that the Liberal Democrats have yet to develop a compelling narrative to deal with the threat posed by Cameron – and with many Liberal MPs defending small majorities over the Tories in the south of England, the threat is very real indeed. Many may now conclude that a record of being a hardworking constituency MP and championing local causes will not be enough to save them in

Posted in Parliamentary by-elections | Also tagged | 45 Comments

What does Henley mean for the Lib Dems?

“A bit disappointed” probably sums up the reaction of most Lib Dems on hearing the result from Henley. But it’s a response that deserves some cool, detached analysis – because the underlying message from Henley is more complex than either Lib Dems who throw up in their hands in despair, or Tories who bray in triumph, are currently admitting.

Reasons to be disappointed:

Well, they’re fairly obvious:

1. The party put in a big effort, fought a vigorous campaign, and had an excellent candidate in Stephen Kearney. We wanted to win – though, realistically, a 15% swing against the Tories in the current …

Posted in Op-eds and Parliamentary by-elections | 41 Comments

Chris Rennard on the Henley result

For those who missed it, here is the result of the Henley by-election:

John Howell (Conservative): 19,796 (57%, +3%)
Stephen Kearney (Liberal Democrat): 9,680 (28%, +2%)
Mark Stevenson (Green Party): 1,321 (4%, +1%)
Timothy Rait (British National Party): 1,243 (4%, +4%)
Richard McKenzie (Labour): 1,066 (3%, -12%)
Chris Adams (UK Independence Party): 843 (2%, n/c)
Bananaman Owen (Official Monster Raving Loony Party): 242 (1%)
Derek Allpass (English Democrats Party): 157 (0.5%)
Amanda Harrington (Independent Candidate): 128 (0.4%)
Dick Rodgers (Common Good): 121 (0.4%)
Louise Cole (Independent Candidate): 91 (0.3%)
Harry Bear (Fur Play Party): 73 (0.2%)
Turnout: 34,915 (50.5%, -18%).

Here’s Chris Rennard’s reaction in an email this morning to Lib Dem members:

Just a

Posted in Parliamentary by-elections | Also tagged | 83 Comments

Henley by-election: open (speculation) thread

There are just five hours til polls close in today’s by-election to decide who will succeed Boris Johnson as MP for Henley.

The widespread expectation is of a Tory victory – it is one of their safest seats – but there has been a great deal of energy behind Stephen Kearney and the Lib Dem team, so no-one’s ruling out a reduction in the Tory majority, or even a shock result.

Here’s what happened the last time the seat was contested, in 2005:
Conservative (Boris Johnson): 24,894 (54%)
Liberal Democrat (David Turner): 12,101 (26%)
Labour (Kaleem Saeed): 6,862 (15%)
Green (Mark Stevenson): …

Posted in Parliamentary by-elections | Also tagged | 63 Comments

Conservative troubles in Henley: today’s round-up

Not a good day to be on the Conservative by-election team by the looks of it.

In summary, we have legal action threatened over a magazine by David Cameron on Friday, which was within a matter of hours disowned by his media team (who told the media they were backing off it) and then today his candidate denied the threat was ever made. It wasn’t a very convincing denial mind you, what with it being made to the very journalist to whom Cameron had talked about the legal threat on Friday. Oops.

Oh and magazine publishers Archant are getting involved – but …

Posted in Parliamentary by-elections | 17 Comments

Smithson’s view: So what’s the betting on Henley?

Sometimes I get criticism from Lib Dem activists over the way I operate my site, Politicalbetting.com, and the usual complaint is that I am not operating it in the interests of the party.

Well, I don’t run it to further the Lib Dems or any other faction. It’s moved to its position as the UK’s most-read political website (four times the page down-loads of Iain Dale) because it seeks to provide a dispassionate information service and discussion platform for those who like forecasting and betting on political outcomes.

Occasionally party campaigners have found it useful to …

Posted in Op-eds and Parliamentary by-elections | Also tagged | 32 Comments

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