It’s three months since the Lib Dems were beaten into fifth place at the European elections: the party which nudged us out was the Greens. Ukip may be grabbing the media attention, but it’s the party of Natalie Bennett and Caroline Lucas which poses the bigger threat to our party.
It’s not hard to see why. Ian Warren of the @election-data blog has analysed which groups of voters were most likely to vote Green last May. See if you can spot a trend:
- Well educated singles living in purpose built flats
- City dwellers owning houses in older neighbourhoods
- Singles and sharers occupying converted Victorian houses
- Young professional families settling in better quality older terraces
- Diverse communities of well-educated singles living in smart, small flats
- Owners in smart purpose built flats in prestige locations, many newly built
- Students and other transient singles in multi-let houses
- Young renters in flats with a cosmopolitan mix
They are, of course, all groups which in the past have tended to be favourable to the Lib Dems. It’s no surprise then that three of the top 10 seats where these groups account for very large proportions of total households are Lib Dem-held seats:
- Cardiff Central (41.1% of households) – 13% Lib Dem majority over Lab (Jenny Willott)
- Bristol West (37.6% of households) – 21% Lib Dem maj over Lab (Stephen Williams)
- Manchester Withington (33.9% of households) – Lib Dem maj of 4.1% over Lab (John Leech)
The Greens don’t stand a chance of winning any of them. But if enough 2010 Lib Dem voters choose to go with them next May it’ll be a boost for Labour. As I first wrote seven years ago, in November 2007:
“As Ukip is to the Tories, so can the Green party be to the Lib Dems.”
* Stephen was Editor (and Co-Editor) of Liberal Democrat Voice from 2007 to 2015, and writes at The Collected Stephen Tall.
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16 Comments
On a brighter front, and yes this coming from me, an excellent performance in the Jesmond by election yesterday.
As for the three seats in question Withington and Cardiff central appear gone anyway with or without the Greens influence. We should not underestimate the number of Lib Dem voters who may switch to the Conservatives in some critical Lib Dem/Con seats if they feel that the overall result between the Cons and Lab will be very tight.
Spot on. The Greens would certainly be my next port of call if (after having rejoined the LDs as a result of the “IN” campaign), I felt the Party was failing to reflect the opinions of many of its members and failing to connect (particularly with the target groups specified) outside of the rarefied bubble of Westminster and was not able to provide the kind of leadership which was working towards these goals. Where else should one go? Labour under the “yesterday’s men and women” of Milliband, Balls, Harman etc? (By the way, “As UKIP for the Tories…” Like Farage and Nuttall, I am not sure about this at all and believe there are a number of constituencies (Grimsby and now certainly Rotherham) where it is LABOUR which really has a lot to fear from the Angry Old Blokes (as there are thousands of voters in ‘rock solid’ Labour seats which match the Kippers’ demographics perfectly and who, after Blair and Blair (and being somewhat less than enthused by Milliband’s seminar presentation style/failure to connect at virtually any level) are more than willing to believe that all their problems, those of their kids and grandkids can be dispelled with the wave of a wand by abolishing ‘Europe’/letting the foreigners get on with their own thing. Just listen to Farage’s rhetoric (“People’s Army”, “Big Business” and, of course, above all, “immigration” (what the Kippers’ rise is basically really all about) etc). There is no doubt that he and Nuttall are going to target constituencies BOTH with a high predominance of semi-skilled, retired old blokes (sea side places like Clacton and South Thanet being primary examples) AND also ex-working class/de-industrialised areas which have basically been left to rot for thirty years plus after the butchery of the mines, steelworks, textile mills, shipyards etc. with little to replace them for this demographic beyond part-time, low wage, insecure work in far too many cases.
There is no way we will hold Manchester Withington (or Norwich South where the Greens definitely are a threat).
Cardiff Central I would lean Labour and Bristol West I’d lean LD, but both are in play
“As Ukip is to the Tories, so can the Green party be to the Lib Dems.”
Surely, the parallels are not that great: the Lib Dems are the principle threat to the Lib Dems. Greens just pick up some of the pieces.
Then again, it looks highly likely that Caroline Lucas will lose her seat in Brighton. The infighting on Brighton Council and the friction between the MP personally and striking council workers has not helped, nor has the Green-led council implementing the very cuts they were elected to oppose.
Following Theakes’ point, I can also imagine a good number of ex-/potential LD voters will be voting tactically in May 2015 so as to try and do all they can to prevent a Lab/Con split allowing the Kippers to land the seat (and I may well be among them as we (LDs) are out of sight in this constituency (rock solid Labour for generations but then with changing demographics/house ownership patterns bringing significant shifts starting in the 1980s towards the Alliance/us to begin with, but now with the Conservatives posing the real challenge to Labour)). (The local MP has also made herself very disliked locally by her full endorsement of HS2, which the (her) local council has rejected, as it is unlikely to bring the slightest benefit to the locality but will have a significant negative impact on the environment as trains flash past on their way to Leeds!) (My sources in Brighton also confirm what Dave Page reports about Green goings-on down there. Another reason, further to my first posting, for definitely sticking with the LDs for the time being at least and hoping the Party’s fortunes pick up again in the not too distant future).
Charles Rothwell –
I’d be a bit more guarded about HS2. My feeling is that the anti groups have a big voice and an internet presence, but I suspect that it is (at least) less unpopular than is often made out. Personally I’d like to see a lot of local transport improvements instead, but I’m not closed-minded.
As to the Greens it is probably council seats they are more interested in. And they could potentially do a lot of damage there, though it is a curiosity in 30 plus years of politics. The greens have consistently over-promised and under-delivered electorally.
Voters in every constituency should be worried about HS2.
At a time when the government is borrowing an extra £100bn each year to add to the debt which will have to be repaid by our children, how can the government possibly propose spending £50bn to speed up the journey from Birmingham and Manchester into London.
The Greens are the other party which offend me least (other than the SNP) but they’re not liberal.
Trouble for me is that the LDs aren’t that liberal really either at the moment.
I have no enthusiasm for next year’s election!
It is fairly extraordinary that at a time of austerity caused by an insufficiently high GDP, a party that is at best lukewarm about GDP like the Greens can get away with an anti-austerity platform.
The ‘Greens’ are the new home of the authoritarian left. Their bossy policies have always been in fantasy land and their stewardship of of Brighton Council should, if better publicised, be quite enough to deter any sensible voter.
It is fairly extraordinary that at a time of austerity caused by insufficiently high tax receipts, a coalition that cuts income taxes at both the top and the bottom can get away with claiming to stand on a pro-deficit reduction programme.
Rarely is a ‘swing’ simply from one party to another. the numbers who might swing LibDem to Green may well be matched, even exceeded, by the swing from Labour to Ukip. This election is all to play for.
Our strategists will surely be promoting our green credentials over the coming months…
People should vote for whoever best represents their views. Most of those voter are probably progressives. They should probably therefore vote for a progressive party like the Greens who represent their views. The Lib Dems are the party of austerity, cuts to welfare, the bedroom tax and 9K per year for a university education. They cannot go into government, implement those types of policies and expect the old progressive part of their base to continue to vote for them, they just can’t. They must have known this before going into coalition government with the Tories though. You have lost part of your base to the likes of the Greens, accept it. You can never win those people back. At least not for a generation anyway, surely the party knew this back in 2010?
And Labour will take Brighton ……
I often wonder why the greens have under- delivered electorally. It is undoubtedly the case that they will suffer the same sort of antipathy as us when their supporters discover that the fantasy world imagined by protest voters cannot be delivered. I used to think that I would go green if we collapsed, but I now realise that, unfortunately, the Green party is a coalition of idealistic lefties who find the exigencies of government distasteful and environmentalists with no grasp of the realities of global economics.