A staggering 25 opinion polls have been published in May for the European elections. I say staggering because, if past form is any guide, two-thirds of the public won’t turn out to vote today. Nor do many people expect the result today to have much bearing on the general election in a year’s time. Still, here are all 25:
The average vote shares in May for the five main parties are:
-
Ukip – 29%
Labour – 27%
Conservatives – 22%
Lib Dems – 8%
Greens – 7%
Those figures would likely result in Ukip and Labour each having 24 MEPs elected, the Tories 16 – and the Lib Dems just 1 MEP remaining, behind the Greens on 2.
Small wonder, then, that the party is, according to today’s Guardian front page, “braced for a complete wipeout in the European parliamentary elections”. I’m assured, by the way, that this leaked internal Liberal Democrat document is not in any way, shape or form a part of the expectations management that all parties undertake before polling day, preparing the media for the worst so that we can say either it’s what we expected or (fingers crossed) better than expected.
For all the media obsession with Ukip, the Greens’ rise has been almost as dramatic, as YouGov’s Peter Kellner notes in his final Euro commentary today, comparing May’s polls with April’s:
… the biggest change has been a marked increase in support for the Greens, up from 7% to 10%. If our figures are exactly right, they have now overtaken the Lib Dems. It’s not because Nick Clegg’s party has lost support during the course of the campaign: their losses and gains almost exactly cancel each other out. Rather, the Greens have gained three votes for every one they have lost since late April. Those gains have come from every part of the political spectrum, but with slightly more from Labour and those who made up their minds late, than from other parties. The battle for fourth place is too close to call with certainty; but when the votes are counted on Sunday night, the performance of the Greens may be one to watch.
That said, the Greens won 9% of the vote in 2009, but (like Ukip) slipped back considerably by the 2010 general election.
One person who isn’t playing the expectations management game is Nigel Farage. The Ukip leader has predicted his party will come first, which means anything less than that will be a disappointment (think the SDP/Liberal Alliance not quite beating Labour in 1983).
Way back in December I made the following prediction: “I think Ukip will edge the popular vote, but that Labour may still win most seats. Let’s say Ukip 26 per cent (24 seats), Labour 25 per cent (25 seats).” For the sake of consistency I’ll stick with that. It all turns on whether Ukip voters’ motivation to turn out for the Euros is trumped by Labour’s get-out-the-vote machine in the local elections. Either way, both Farage and Ed Miliband will be the party leaders celebrating extra MEPs being elected; both the Tories and Lib Dems are resigned to significant losses.
* Stephen was Editor (and Co-Editor) of Liberal Democrat Voice from 2007 to 2015, and writes at The Collected Stephen Tall.
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32 Comments
We need a Clegg-xit strategy.
When LDV reported Lord Ashdown’s colourful warning to Lib Dem MP’s thinking of calling for Mr. Clegg’s removal, I interpreted this a signal that Clegg intends to resign – with some semblance of honour – after electoral defeat, rather than being turfed out by a mutinous, panicked Parliamentary party.
Ashdown, Farron, Alexander and Cable must surely realize that Clegg’s political capital – both in the party and in the country at large – is utterly exhausted.
Mr. Clegg is now a serious liability to the Liberal Democrats and – by extension – to the health of the nation’s body politic. It is less than a year until the next general election, and the country needs a strong, united and distinctive Liberal choice.
It is manifestly clear Mr. Clegg cannot deliver Liberal Democrat success. It is time for him to go.
There is nothing anyone can say now that will make any difference. On Sunday we will know and then the obvious thing to do is work out what should be done about it. In the meantime, time to do the housework and gardening. And of course wish everyone good luck.
With UKIP, Labour and the Greens (?) all set to make gains, it looks like our politics are going the way of Northern Ireland, where moderate centrist parties are giving way to fringe extremists. Hopefully that’ll send a wake up call to the hand-sitters.
Tabman is wrong, suggesting that “moderate centrist parties are giving way to fringe extremists .” It’s true that UKIP’s vote has grown in parts of Great Britain. The Labour Party which has done well today is clearly located in that moderate centre.
Overall percentages are essentially useless for predicting how this election will go for the Lib Dems and nobody’s done proper polling constituency by constituency. Based on trawling through the tables, I think we’ll see the Lib Dems retain one or two seats, including one in London; but the samples per region are neither large enough nor accurate enough to make accurate predictions. The greens should do similarly well.
Interestingly, I’ve been hearing from Conservative voters who have voted Lib Dem in this Europeans in a deliberate attempt to prop up the Lib Dems in support of the work they’ve done in the coalition moderating the influence of the Tory right. Make of that what you will.
Bill Chapman – barely scraping 25% of the vote and in all probability coming behind UKIP, in a situation where they’re supposedly facing the “most nasty right-wing government since the second world war” (malc passim) is clearly a new definition of “doing well”.
Bill Chapman wrote:
“The Labour Party which has done well today is clearly located in that moderate centre.”
Is a predicted 27% share of the vote the Labour Party doing well? I seem to recall that Michael Foot’s Labour Party getting 28% was widely considered to be doing badly.
The Labour Party might well be located in the “moderate centre”, though well to the left of Blair/Mandelson. But if I was a Labour Party strategist, I would be more than a bit concerned about losing so many votes to the Greens.
Early results make it look like Labour are going to reap the FPTP whirlwind.
The euro vote matters to the LDP because at times it looks as if the party bet the farm on the Party of IN message. In many ways it is the locals that matter rather more in terms of the run to 2015. It will be most interesting to look at any split vote i.e UKIP in the euro and UKIP or AN Other in the locals. That might give some idea of how much the UK’s relationship with Europe is a high priority in the voters minds.
At times I have been angry with Nick, but recently I have felt he could still be the best person to lead the party into the 2015 election. Many natural Lib Dems are not voting for us and we need a rational plan to attract these people going forward. Saying “the reason is Nick Clegg” is not good enough and just scapegoating. A party that would be willing to put the past behind and do what is best going forward would be attractive and be liberal in name and spirit.
Just watching the results show on the BBC. It pains me to see good liberals like Chuka Umunna not in the Lib Dems. Sarah Wollaston is another one in the Conservatives, there’s a whole host of good liberal people out there and we need to put tribalism aside and start wooing them.
Some real shockers for the party so far.
Longbridge result – Lib Dems down to 157 votes
Hull University ward – down to 200 votes,
& Mike Hancock – looks like he’s lost Fratton to UKIP and his wife lost her seat too.
By next year Nick Clegg s strategy will have reduced us to a few outposts and our organisation nationally decimated
Any future Lib dem Leader must say ” We will no longer participate in any formal coalition in Westminster until the voting system does not lead to our annihilation in inevitable periods of unpopularity.It is more important for democracy that we maintain a strong Lib dem party and voice until the system is changed and real and fair plurality exists in our democracy”
As a result of his failure Nick Clegg should stand down as Pa rty Leader and give the rest of us. Ome chance of rebuilding the party
“Tabman is wrong, suggesting that “moderate centrist parties are giving way to fringe extremists .” It’s true that UKIP’s vote has grown in parts of Great Britain. The Labour Party which has done well today is clearly located in that moderate centre.”
Labour should be doing well extremely regardless, as the official opposition in a mid-term election that has always been treated as an excuse to vent fury at the government.
That it is not, struggling even come first against a virtual nobody, does not bode well.
I’m surprised by those that are surprised! How many of you guys look back at the history of the Liberals and third parties in Coalition……….. they always get screwed!!!! Many voices in the Lib Dems pointed this out loud and clear before the coalition deal and a many times since. Since 2010 I have been saying the Lib Dems should have a clear plan to replace NC before the 2015 election……. my money has always been on Charles Kennedy as a caretaker leader until after the election. The problem that I didn’t see was how damaged NC is in the eyes of the public…..his last stand against NF was brave but desperate and did nothing but reinforce the publics negative view of him (from people I have spoken too).
Hang in there be positive….make your own luck where you can……… whos knows I may even rejoin ….
‘Adapt or Die!’
Can/will the Party adapt to the public’s clear dislike of what mainstream politics has become.
PC v actuality.
We live in a world where there is only one ideology represented by the mainstream parties: – neo-liberalism. It is an ideology that is failing yet they all cling to it and in the space it leaves wide open steps the likes of UKIP. The other reason for UKIP’s rise is the increasing obsession of the mainstream parties with the media and how to present their image. Reasoned debate is closed down in favour of narcissism. A large swathe of the electorate simply don’t see the issues they are concerned about being discussed by the main parties. What reinforces this is negative campaigning against UKIP – the people who vote UKIP don’t see themselves as being racist and accusations against them of being racist just makes them even more determined to turn out. The Lib Dems have played a more active role in reinforcing the UKIP vote in this manner recent weeks than the other parties. If you’re serious about wanting to prevent the rise of UKIP then take a look at yourselves and ask what you are doing wrong.
my money has always been on Charles Kennedy as a caretaker leader until after the election.
This is a good suggestion. When you think about it Mr Farrage is popular because he does like a drink and smoke and Charles Kennedy always retained his popularity despite the Party stabbing him in the back because of his problems. At the last leadership election we were faced with two poor choices Clegg or Huhne. I spoilt my ballot paper and wrote Charles Kennedy on it. There wasn’t a woman candidate as I would’ve liked and Kennedy or Farron would wrest the Party back from the libertarian Orange Bookers who espouse isolationist Ukip stylerabid libertarian policies you know like let’s privatise the NHS, charge for doctors appointments etc and bring it back to its core radicalism on the centre left where it belongs. It’s time to get the Party’s equivalent of the militant tendency out for good.
David,
“wrest the Party back from the libertarian Orange Bookers who espouse isolationist Ukip style rabid libertarian policies”
I too want the party to move to the left and am not terribly excited about the coaltion with the Tories. And if a change of leadeship is needed before the next election let’s do it, as long as it won’t become a recrimatory bloodbath.
But with your aggressive language, mixing together all the things you oppose into one single entity which you can claim anyone you dislike is part of, you are doing a good impression of the rhetoric of the Labour 1980s militant tendency yourself.
Is Norman Baker a laughable suggestion as leader or deputy leader? He seems to be one of the few MPs who are certain to keep his seat, he won’t disappear if the Scots say ‘yes’ – and he certainly seems a real human being.
John Roffey –
Don’t know but Norman Baker would certainly test (?to destruction?) the LibDem’s resilience and ability to cope with hostile media attacks.
Matt Bristol
“But with your aggressive language, mixing together all the things you oppose into one single entity which you can claim anyone you dislike is part of, you are doing a good impression of the rhetoric of the Labour 1980s militant tendency yourself.”
I think you are going slightly over the top on David, just like many of us he has been driven to despair by Clegg and the Orange Bookers. Sometimes it does us good to have a little aggressive rant.
@ Matt (Bristol]
Farage and UKIP seem to have handled hostile media attacks and turned them to their advantage.
I made the suggestion because I had seen that he is pursuing the publication of the Chicot inquiry – and with his doggedness – is likely to succeed [much to voter approval].
If Chilcot is published and the Party has returned to the left – this should seriously damage Labour’s election chances and provide much greater opportunity for the Party to recover.
Thank you Malc though I think they’ve aggressively assumed control of the Party and are now seeing the consequences. Strangely enough I find it’s not the ex SDP members who adopt this OB stance but the former Liberals who you would assume were more left of centre or social liberal but how wrong can I be.. I can still label myself Social Liberal and stand as such.
Matt (Bristol) – “But with your aggressive language, mixing together all the things you oppose into one single entity which you can claim anyone you dislike is part of, you are doing a good impression of the rhetoric of the Labour 1980s militant tendency yourself.”
Quite. It all sounds a bit like “burn the witch!” to me. Actually, I’m not totlaly convinced that “david” is a real party member. He seems rather like an entryist tr0ll designed to stir up trouble. But no matter.
But I stand by my comments that we are seeing a movement from the centre out to the extremes of left and right, at least amongst those that bothered to vote.
Labour sowed the whirlwind when they failed to pursue electoral reform. They are reaping the wind of low turnouts, postal voting scandals and four party politics giving a lower tipping point. FPTP only excludes the extremes until they reach that tipping point, whereupon they win landslides. Be afraid.
Has Labour signed its own death warrant?
I doubt Labour have signed their own death warrant given they have no opposition. They’re up against a slightly right-wing party, a right-wing party, a very right-wing party and an extreme right -wing party. Anyone in the centre or on the left has only one choice and far-left parties don’t attract enough support to worry Labour.
Tabman, in fact its more than that, we (in England at least) have FPTP only for most elections, and then in the EU elections a mid-term proportional-list election which is seen as a ‘protest’ election; so we ricochet between the two systems with increasingly destructive results.
Looks like LDs could be 4th-5th, and personally I am between LD and Green [on manifestos] but today is a right-wing win today. Reasons? We need to get a grip on the ‘anti’ votes and be a more responsive party [suggestions later]. Basildon has often revealed a win in national government so are we following the thinking of the voters there? There are issues which the [formally] main political parties don’t want to look at in a serious way. As democrats we must. The comments of the media are always negative, always will be – because it’s easier, whether about Conservative or Labour, but the polls reveal how the people have been won over by the media against Nick’s middle party. We are not middle, we are liberal and want the freedom for people to pursue their views on life itself.
The tougher reasons about politics are about sticking to what we say, we do: by battling for the smaller people in society and what they need in order to live; by stopping the waste from the ‘posh’ people and asking what a normal person can reasonably do to protect the environment; by making every area of the country responsive to democracy itself. You see, government in Whitehall can deliver the defense and security of the nation but we need to demand local government to help our daily lives. Central Government does not work. We get it.
Under the AV system, the Tories or UKIP would win as they have collectively the most votes. UKIP Supporters would put Tory as their second choice and vice versa.
Phyllis, that would work if ukip were taking Tory votes exclusively, but they aren’t. Look at places like Rotherham where theyrse taking Labour votes by the bucket load.
Central government does work but works better when more powers are given to local councils, regions etc as in devolution and giving decision making back to communities where for example people don’t want their environment destroyed by fracking and building on green belt land, they shouldn’t get it. As for the remarks above, I shan’t be insulted by you and your OB allies. I have been a party member all my life though have become more and more disillusioned under Clegg’s leadership and the Party centrally increasingly becoming remote from members (taking it to the Libertarian right, some of your lot really should leave and join Ukip) activists as well as voters as many people suggest pursuing power for the sake of a career trip and jettisoning the values on which the Party was so successful under Charles Kennedy, defending public services and recognising how well the mixed economy with nationalisation works well not at the expense of your OB brigade and their obsession with privatisation, out of control free markets which make life harder for the vulnerable and poor. As a council estate tenant I stick by these views as we’re not all well off libertarian types some of us believe in social housing and improving supply on brownfield sites. I stood at the last council elections and tripled the party vote in a strong labour ward, what did you and your Orange Booker do? except of course make the Party increasingly unelectable. I’ve looked at the local results in Greenwich this time and in most seats the Lib Dems are last behind the Greens.
david. I’ve never done anything for the party. Never ran a campaign that overturned a massive Tory majority. Nope. Not me.
By the way, what is your definition of a Libertarian?