Today, in case you hadn’t noticed, is election day. There are national elections in Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland, and local elections for 279 councils across England. And of course there’s the referendum to determine the voting system used for elections to Westminster.
Four years ago, in 2007, the Liberal Democrats were a party of opposition. Today, we’re in a Coalition government. Let’s recap the starting positions…
Scotland: the party is defending 16 seats (11 constituency MSPs, and five regional list MSPs), which was a drop of one compared to 2003. There are 129 contested seats for the Scottish parliament.
Wales: the party is defending six seats (3 constituency AMs, and three regional list AMs), which was the same as in 2003. There are 60 contested seats for the Welsh assembly.
English local elections: the party is defending more than 1,800 seats, a little under half the party’s total number of councillors of 3,900. Four years ago, the Lib Dems lost almost 250 seats and control of four councils in what I described at the time (here and here) as a mixed set of results. The ALDC website will be keeping tally of the results here.
You can read John Curtice’s assessment in The Independent of the Lib Dems’ hopes/fears here, in which it’s estimated the party will face “serious losses” of councillors — with the party reckoning it could be up to 600 — and lose half the 22 councils we are defending.
National projected share of the vote: in 2007, the Lib Dems scored an estimated 26%, just behind Labour on 27%, with the Tories at 40%. In the latest ICM poll, the Lib Dems were at 15%. Traditionally the party has exceeded its poll ratings in local elections thanks to the campaigning efforts of our supporters. We will see in a few hours whether that trend can be sustained in government.
Until then, here are a few questions to consider:
- What impact will the Coalition have on support for the party — UK-wide, and in particular areas?
- Will some Lib Dem supporters switch direct to another party, or will they simply stay at home?
- Will there be a north/south divide, with support for the Lib Dems holding up in southern parts of England but falling in the north and Scotland and Wales?
- Will there be heavy Lib Dems losses where we have MPs — and what effect will this have on support for the Coaltion among those MPs?
- Where will the Lib Dems buck the trend, and pick up seats?
Please share your thoughts and predictions, below…
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12 Comments
Scotland – 9 or 10 seats (potential to help form a majority with SNP?)
Wales – 5
Local elections – lose 400-500
AV – I had said 39% but I now think it may be higher due to low turnout
I think you guys will take quite a beating.
SNP will dominate in Scotland.
Overall Labour majority in Wales
As for AV I reluctantly backed it but Clegg’s involvement in campaign was damaging – you know a toxic brand at present
voted yes to av, so annoyed with Nick Clegg voted labour , with exception of one Libdem whos a decent person… voted once libdem to stop the cons and got the bloody cons
Scotland 9 seats
Wales – 4
Locals to lose 500-550
AV will be closer than they think 42%
What I’d like is a massive show of disapproval from disillusioned Lib Dem supporters (like me) in areas where the Lib Dems are traditionally fighting the Tories.
What I think we’ll get, lucky for Nick, is a much more muted message. The electoral realities are such that in many areas anti-Tories don’t really have anyone else but the Lib Dem to vote for if they want their vote to impact on the outcome.
Left leaning former Lib Dem supporters might stay home but there’s a core of Lib Dem support that’s further to the right than I would like and they’ll turn out happily.
Overall I think you’ll lose seats everywhere but avoid a meltdown in your “heartlands”. AV will be lost at least 60/40 and possibly 65/35 .
Looking deeper into the crystal ball, however, I don’t think you can take much cheer. As cuts bite harder anger can only grow. Those of your supporters on the left (sorry about the old fashioned terms but I’m an old fashioned bloke) might think that cutting off their hand gets a higher preference than voting Lib Dem.
If, however, the Coalition works out you may have yet another problem. Left leaning voters still unforgiving and right leaning voters now happy to vote direct for the Cameron Tories. We might even get the answer to the old question of how much solid, non-tactical, Lib Dem support there really is.
I didn’t vote today as there was no-one i felt could sufficiently represent me
“there’s a core of Lib Dem support that’s further to the right than I would like”
Eh? What on earth are you talking about?
SNP to do well in Scotland. Labour to do well in Wales but not quite get an overall majority.
The Liberal Democrats will lose a string of Councils and a number of Council Seats probably around 631 is my guess. The Tories vote will hold up, the Liberal Democrat vote will be around 15 %. The Greens will take some votes off the Liberal Democrats notably in Watford. Labour to gain around 753 seats.
AV vote 43 yes No 57
Nick Clegg to look depressed in the morning papers. Lots of senior liberal democrats out in force to tell us that they are staying the course.
15 of 18 LibDems in Clegg’s backyard are feared to have lost their seats, according to LibDem HQ.
Seat losses around 200. Dont know about the rest.
@Tabman…thought i was being clear but obviously not.
Very simply there are Lib Dems voters who don’t feel shafted by the Coalition and in fact rather like it. They are to the right of er..me… and they will have very happily cast their votes for the Lib Dem. That clear it up?
Labour get in on lies, broken promises and rigged elections. The public will continue to switch to them if we don’t stand up for what we believe in.
Here on Wirral, I thought the Lib Dems would win (Lib Dem hold) in Oxton and Eastham. As to the rest I think we lost the other twenty one seats.