At the weekend, there was a flurry of activity online (such as here) following Ed Miliband’s interview on the Andrew Marr show where he denied having said that the government’s policies would cause a double-dip recession and various people pointed out how this was contradicted by his own website (and also, though less noticed, by the Labour Party website too).
If you look at the dates of who said what, there seems to be a fairly straight-forward explanation: Ed Miliband and others in Labour were expecting (or at least willing to talk in public as if they were expecting) a double-dip during the summer, but at some point last year changed their minds. Changing your minds as new economic data comes in is hardly a sin, indeed it is a virtue, though this virtue is rather tarnished by Ed Miliband saying to Andrew Marr , “I’ve never said that” rather than “Events have moved on” or quoting Keynes that, “When the facts change, I change my mind. What do you do, sir?”
But, but, but. Even that generous explanation leaves a puzzle.
Alan Johnson.
For as recently as just before Christmas he was attacking the government for not having a fully worked-out Plan B in the case of a double-dip: “We have said all along that the Government has no Plan B in the event of the economy hitting a serious downturn. This proves absolutely that an alternative approach is needed.”
So between them Alan Johnson and Ed Miliband really seem to be wanting to have it both ways – backing away from previous rhetoric about a double-dip whilst also demanding the government does more to plan what to do in the event of one.
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23 Comments
It’s Labour, on the economy – of course it doesn’t make sense…
I suggest that the answer to this conundrum would be best established by checking the economic credentials of the Shadow Chancellor…
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/politics/labour/8249198/Alan-Johnson-struggles-over-National-Insurance-rates-on-live-television.html
http://www.spectator.co.uk/coffeehouse/6550483/johnsons-economic-education.thtml
http://averypublicsociologist.blogspot.com/2010/10/alan-johnson-shadow-chancellor.html
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/b0960a0c-fb20-11df-b576-00144feab49a.html#axzz1BKl04JbF
I could go on…
My recollection is that Milliband stated quite clearly that he didn’t say there was going to be a double-dip recession and if you have a citation to the contrary then please supply it.
However, when one thinks of Clegg and his broken personal guarantee on tuition fees I wonder what point you are trying to make?
And if the Shadow Chancellor wasn’t thinking about various scenarios that might hit our economy I would be worried and have always been worried that the Chancellor brooks no such posibility – at least in public. Closed minds are always dangerous and it would be nice to know that that the government had a plan B.
This may become more important as some economists have recently begun warning that a number of issues, some of which are external and that we have no control over, could well combine to resuurect the spectre that double-dip could still happen.
If you want to check-out Cameron twisting figures why not look at: http://liberalconspiracy.org/2011/01/13/why-camerons-job-creation-claims-are-questionable/
Or, as it is close to your heart when Cameron pledged to keep EMA: http://liberalconspiracy.org/2011/01/17/watch-when-cameron-promised-not-to-cut-ema/
Really you have enough to worry you within the Coalition never mind looking to Labour to manufacture fault.
He said that the policies risked a double dip recession, which plenty of economists agree with, quite a few wrote a letter to The Times saying the same thing.
Would and could do not mean the same thing.
Mark, one can believe an event unlikely but still consider it appropriate to have a plan for if it happens. This is basic risk planning.
Alan Johnson is not an economist. He has no idea about economics. To me his appointment shows Labour have not moved on and given power will merely do what they see votes in. Johnson’s gifts are as a rhetoricist and as we saw when he mocked science to cheers from Labour in the Commons he needs no basis to mock or humiliate people – ironically showing how out of touch he was Brown tried to support science on Climate Change, that man never hit the Zeitgeist of even his own party’s obsessive anti intellectualism.
Interestingly Johnson shows that knowledge is dangerous to the possessor because the one subject the arch word smith had no opinion on was the Postal strike. He’d win any argument on physics with Einstein et al but could not state a view on a subject he knew about. I quite admire him in a way.
Personally I think Labour are making a tactical error warning of things. It will be in their favour if it happens regardless and I told you so weaklings don’t always look good. If it does not their voice of gloom will look even more hollow than they really are.
Personally think the cause will be external factors if it happens and what’s been done will not matter.
@EcoJon
“My recollection is that Milliband stated quite clearly that he didn’t say there was going to be a double-dip recession and if you have a citation to the contrary then please supply it.”
Check out Milliband’s own website – its there in black and white.
“This may become more important as some economists have recently begun warning that a number of issues, some of which are external and that we have no control over, could well combine to resuurect the spectre that double-dip could still happen.”
He clearly states the cause of the double-dip will be a direct consequence of the government’s policies, not external factors.
@EcoJon
If Nick Clegg went on TV and tried to claim that he never said that he would vote against Tuition Fees, I’d criticise him. Instead he admits that changed circumstances and political obligations caused him to change his mind, as Ed Miliband should admit.
Also, I don’t personally see why these two need to be mutually exclusive:
1) Thinking the recession will probably not strike again.
2) Being prepared for it to.
I do not think my house will catch fire but I have fire alarms.
@Jonathan da Silva who said: ‘Personally I think Labour are making a tactical error warning of things’.
Jonathan – I think it has to be remembered that the statement on Milliband’s website was made last August and many financial commentators at that time warned of the dangers of a double-dip recession.
I think Marr thought he would successfully ambush Milliband with this one and then reveal the website as proof. Milliband fixed him with those rather disconcerting eyes and point-blank denied it. Interestingly what it proved to me was that Marr doesn’t do his own research because he was unsure of the accuracy of his facts and it made Milliband look good and forceful. Marr most definitely blinked first and who wouldn’t lol.
But Jonathan Milliband didn’t raise it – Marr did.
I agree that the cause of a possible double-dip will be external but I believe it will be deeper and possibly longer because of the cut philosophy of tghe government and the poor level of growth.
As to Johnson, no he doesn’t have a deep grasp of economic theory but what he does have is an understanding of the hardships that the current economic policies are bringing to ordinary people. What is much more important is when he talks ‘economics’ the ordinary people recognise what he’s saying and they know he has empathy unlike Osborne – a very cold fish with very dead eyes.
@Mark Pack. Btw Mark you state that the August statement was on the Labour Party Website – but the link provided is for the Milliband’s site.
Also you state in your headline: ‘. . . something Ed Miliband says isn’t going to happen’. That is factually incorrect – Milliband didn’t state it wasn’t going to happen – he said to Marr that he didn’t say it was going to happen – there’s actually a world of difference between these two statements which goes much further than mere semantics.
I tend to like Marr as he knows his stuff and is pretty fair but there was a world of a difference between his kid-gloves handling of Cameron the week before and a much more combative approach with Milliband.
But I think whatever Marr was up to backfired as Cameron gave an oily party political broadcast largely unchallenged whereas Milliband showed he could handle the rough stuff. I think the voters would easily see the difference.
I wonder if Clegg is on this Sunday?
The trouble with this discussion is a) an attempt to focus on what Labour has to say (as has already been said)) rather than looking at the practicalities of what the Govt is doing and whether that will create economic difficulties, and more importantly b) to keep the focus specifically on a “double dip” recession, a technical definition which people can argue about till kingdom come, rather than seeing that the economy is in any case moving in the “wrong” direction over the past 6 months.
It is, in other words, a rather shallow argument. Perhaps we should be concentrating on an entirely separate issue, ie climate change and resource shortage issues, and how we make our society fairer while holding growth to what the environment can stand. Now there is a deep argument, and one that all parties need to address fully rather than bickering at one another over 0.1% one way or another, or whether so and so’s spokesperson has the faintest idea of what they are on about!
Ecojon – Yes, AM said at the end of Sunday’s prog that NC would be on next Sunday.
@Rich who said: ‘If Nick Clegg went on TV and tried to claim that he never said that he would vote against Tuition Fees, I’d criticise him. Instead he admits that changed circumstances and political obligations caused him to change his mind, as Ed Miliband should admit.’
Rich, have you ever thought of politics as a career because you have a wonderful talent in that direction that makes me quite jealous 🙂
The reason Clegg was criticised was because he made a promise he broke and got the rest of the PPCs to make the same promise after he had previously decided to break it – he didn’t tell the PPCs of course of his change of mind.
So there is no need to make up hypothetical scenarios for Mr Clegg and btw I love your explanation as to why he destroyed the LibDems and sparked a revolt among his MPs viz: ‘changed circumstances and political obligations caused him to change his mind. Not true Rich – he had changed his mind before the GE.
Rich you say Ed Milliband ‘Should admit’. Admit what? He said he didn’t say there was going to be a double-dip recession and that would appear to be truthful according to the link that Mark Pack so kindly provided. However, Rich I agree with you on the comment about not being mutually exclusive – it is always wise to try and prepare even when we don’t end up seeing the Big One coming as happened this time. Or maybe Vince saw it coming but Vince is a bit like Jeremia – maybe I’ll publish a book about Vince’s Visions – should make explosive reading and there would be some amount of fall-out.
@Mark Inskip – Mark the comment I made was actually in relation to what Milliband said on the Marr Show. I also did not say that Milliband stated that external factors might bring about a new double-dip recession. But since you raise the point if we had had a double-dip then external factors would have played a part in any case. Some of the external factors I alluded to would have been present had an earlier double-dip taken place but others are fresh and these are the ones that could possibly spark a new double-dip. as far as I am aware Milliband has not made any comments on this and neither has Osborne or Cameron.
You tell me to check-out Milliband’s own website as they evidence is there in ‘black and white’. I would advise you to go back to that website and read it more carefully and more slowly as he doesn’t state that the government’s . . . Oh let me just repeat it here for you – I was going to increase the font size for you but thought you might take umbrage.
Milliband states: 1. Harsh cuts to public investment which go faster and deeper than needed and will damage the economy, risking a double-dip recession.
He doesn’t state there will be a double-dip recession he only says ‘risking’ and really if you don’t recognise the difference well there’s little I can add to assist your understanding or comprehension.
@Tim13
Yea a lot of these things are very technical and often you could argue for ever about what caused it and whether or not the right corrective argument was taken – sounds like a definition for Economics 🙂
However – not me that started this one Gov – it was that Big Bad Boy Mark Pack and then he ran away lol.
However, moving a bit towards the environment but with a dash of economics – I was concerned to read about how few wind turbines were operating at even a third of capacity during the recent cold spell because of lack of wind. Apparently this is a normal thing that cold weather often brings still air.
This is worrying because obviously it tends to happen in winter when demand is peaking which leaves us with no option but to switch on nuclear and coal power stations.
Also if the North Atlantic jetstream is going to permanently move northwards in winter because of climate change then we are going to see more of these weather conditions and I wonder whether the whole economic argument for wind power might be looking a bit shaky?
Um, no, this is completely wrong. Ed Miliband and the Labour party never said that there would be a double dip recession, just that the risks of it had increased because of Lib-Tory policies.
ANDREW MARR:
You say they’re going to drive this country into a double-dip recession.
ED MILIBAND:
No, I don’t say that. I’ve never said that.
‘1. Harsh cuts to public investment which go faster and deeper than needed and will damage the economy, risking a double-dip recession.’
‘Risking’ a double dip recession. Not saying ‘there will be a double dip recession’. And it is pretty much universally acknowledged that the chance of a double dip, such that it is, has increased because of coalition policies.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/7901248/Budget-increase-risk-of-double-dip-recession.html
That is the Conservative led Treasury Select Committee saying that the coalition’s budget had increased the risk.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/7970485/Coalition-cuts-increase-risk-of-double-dip-recession-BCC-warns.html
That is the BCC saying the same.
http://www.tribunemagazine.co.uk/2010/07/obr-admits-budget-increases-double-dip-recession-risk/
That is the OBR saying the same.
Ed Miliband’s position is the mainstream. He never said, as Andrew Marr wrongly thought, that these policies are going to drive the country into a double-dip recession, just that they were risking it.
EcoJon: Thanks; I’ve fixed the link.
Darren / Rich: You’d have a fair point if that’s how Alan Johnson had gone about describing his view – “I know this is very unlikely, but…” or words to that effect. But it wasn’t – and hence my comment about them wanting to have it both ways (or perhaps it’s just that Miliband and Johnson disagree?).
It is bizarre that people are saying that Alan Johnson should not be shadow chancellor because “He is not an economist.”. How many chancellors have been economists? How many shadow chancellors have been economists? How many prime ministers or deputy prime ministers have ever been in charge of anything except their own political parties (for a brief period before getting elected)? Could it be that some people do not like Aan Johnson because he is a working man who has made his way up not a privileged product of public school and Oxbridge?
OK – Alan Johnston should not be Shadow Chancellor because he is lazy and innumerate; Labour should not be trusted with the economy because they are selfish and incompetent.
lets not forget that Osborne is not an economist he has a bachelors degree in Modern History 😉
@Andrew Tennant who stated: ‘OK – Alan Johnston should not be Shadow Chancellor because he is lazy and innumerate; Labour should not be trusted with the economy because they are selfish and incompetent.’
Well Andrew some might say that you are illiterate and lazy because you can’t spell the shadow chancellor’s name or even bother to check the spelling. However, I won’t as people make mistakes that don’t actually reflect one iota to their overall competency.
As to Johnson being lazy – you obviously know nothing about the man as he is anything but. He is also very warm and approachable and I suggest that when the red mist rises and you wish to personally attack people or make cutting remarks that you do so based on some kind of evidence otherwise people will ignore your utterings.
I agree with Milliband who said he would rather have Johnson any day of the week than Osborne and I am sure that the British people heartily agree with that sentiment.
As to your comments about Labour and the economy well it really is quite simple – the government is responsible for the way it manages the economy. However, let me caution against making a snap judgement regarding how well or badly any particular government has managed the economy over a short-term snapshot. These matters often become much clearer when viewed over a longer period.
However, for those who are permanently blinkered the tunnel-vision never clears and, as in this instance, they remain tethered to their party-political yellow tinted specs.
@Mark Pack
Thanks for sorting the link but I can’t see anything on it which refers to Milliband. It is a historical link however which possibly explains why Vince Cable warns of the risk of a double-dip. It may be reassuring for you that your economic guru agrees with what you claim Milliband has said although Milliband has denied it and you have been unable to cite a reference to the contrary.
I also note that you have decided not to change your incorrect and very misleading article headline. It reminds me of one of the worst national newspaper editors I ever worked for who thought up an eye-catching headline for stories on the most scanty facts before the journalist had even investigated let alone wrote the story.
Go to your own link at http://www.labour.org.uk/the-tories-putting-the-recovery-at-risk and you will read:
Andrew Marr:
Are we close to a double dip, do you think, recession?
Vince Cable:
‘That’s certainly a risk, and what any incoming Chancellor has to bear in mind ‘ Andrew Marr Show, 7 March 2010
The link also deals with warnings given by Cameron and his former public spending guru states: “If you go too quickly then there is a risk that the recovery will be snuffed out and we will go back into a recession.’’ Sir Alan Budd, Dispatches, 9 March 2010
The articles also cites numerous historic and global examples relating to double-dip for anyone who thinks it wasn’t a real risk and actually still is a real risk.
I should point-out that Budd – first chairman of the OBR – fell from favour after the PM abused the independence of the OBR to win a PMQ point: http://news.bbc.co.uk/today/hi/today/newsid_8916000/8916871.stm
@EcoJon
Thanks for clearing that up; Johnston is prominent name in my extended family, so I was undeservedly offering him a compliment.
I’d actually prefer Osborne to Johnson as he shows some motivation to actually grasp and carry out the brief he’s been offered and only rarely makes catastrophic gaffes; far from judging Labour on a brief snapshot, I think it’s fair to say that they have never managed a sustained effective period of good economic governance…
@EcoJon
On Vince – thank you for introducing that quote; actually, far from having no plan B, Vince has articulated on several occasions the monetary policy alternative that the government will use should growth suddenly and unexpectedly fall away in order to avert market panic and to keep the country progressing in the right direction…