Nice work, Lara Pringle and team!
Well done Cllr. Lara Pringle for smashing it in Northchurch, Dacorum. pic.twitter.com/U1qHHvwrKq
— ALDC (@ALDC) March 8, 2018
Liberal Democrat GAIN Northchurch (Dacorum) from Conservative.
— Britain Elects (@britainelects) March 8, 2018
And this is what is known as one hell of a swing.
Northchurch (Dacorum) result:
LDEM: 59.2% (+40.4)
CON: 28.2% (-32.1)
LAB: 10.5% (-1.7)
GRN: 2.1% (-6.6)LDem GAIN from Con.
— Britain Elects (@britainelects) March 8, 2018
And a really good increase in vote share in Petersfield:
Petersfield Bell Hill (East Hampshire) result:
IND: 32.7% (+32.7)
LDEM: 28.3% (+14.3)
CON: 26.7% (-20.8)
LAB: 10.3% (-4.9)
UKIP: 2.0% (-10.1)Independent GAIN from Conservative.
— Britain Elects (@britainelects) March 8, 2018
* Caron Lindsay is Editor of Liberal Democrat Voice and blogs at Caron's Musings
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19 Comments
But truly horrible set of results in the North West seats. So bad I will not even mention the figures.
Theakes – Electoral history of those North West seats shows results are no great surprises. Droylsden and Farnworth are not fruitful territory for us, but at least we had candidates in both. Unlike Rutland and Harlow, where the local parties let us down, either through mistaken deals or laziness. Dacorum is a brilliant result and we should rightly celebrate it.
@theakes “But truly horrible set of results in the North West seats.”
The byelection reports on this site on a Friday do seem very much to be a one-sided presentation, glorifying Lib Dem successes and ignoring other results. This approach invites theakes’ usual response, pre-empted some weeks by those anticipating it!
A link on this page leads to a more honest appraisal of the day’s results by Mark Pack.
Does it matter?
I think it does.
Before the last couple of General Elections and the EU Referendum, Lib Dems seemed too keen to embrace and hype evidence that supported their hopes while ignoring evidence which did not. This confirmation bias was damaging and could continue to be so.
@ Tim Hill ” Droylsden and Farnworth are not fruitful territory for us, but at least we had candidates in both.”
Did we have candidates in both ? Not really – getting 0.9% is not having a candidate. It’s an advertisement for ‘I can’t be bothered’ to knock on a few doors and making an effort. In branding and advertising terms it’s treating the electorate with contempt and that contempt is then returned in full measure by the electorate. What’s the point ?
The whole notion of paper candidates, especially in by-elections, needs to be reviewed and minimum standards of effort should be enforced. This is supposed to be the party with the branding of ‘we try harder’. Or is it ?
The Bolton News will now be spreading the news in the region that the Lib Dems are non-existent.
@Tim Hill “Farnworth … not fruitful territory for us”
A preview of the byelections (http://britainelects.com/2018/03/07/previews-08-mar-2018/) indicates that up to 2010 Lib Dems fought the Tories for second place and the number of votes was increasing towards 1000. Now it is fifth place with 900 potential Lib Dem voters still AWOL.
@David Raw “The Bolton News will now be spreading the news in the region that the Lib Dems are non-existent.”
Actually the Bolton News is reporting Lib Dem success on Westhoughton town council! (http://www.theboltonnews.co.uk/news/16074979.Farnworth___Kearsley_First_win_first_council_seat__Lib_Dems_take_Westhoughton/)
David – If we didn’t stand, we would definitely be non-existent !
Peter – 8 years ago…..
Congratulations on a great result and a good swing in Petersfield as well. The troops are finding it hard going in our less likely areas but congratulations to those who keep battling.
@Tim Hill “8 years ago…..”
… and yet 3 years after the Coalition with two changes of party leader it has not improved.
That is why I think more honesty/humility is needed when interpreting polling of voting intention and the results of elections, and I hope that is what the party is doing behind the scenes.
It is not just the North West, Nottingham was as bad, remember not long ago we had many Councillors there! If we are a serious NATIONAL party we should be polling 15% minimum in these sort of seats.
At the Conference we should be highlighting our parlous state in these wards, admit it in public and say what we are going to do about it.
heakes 9th Mar ’18 – 7:50am…………..But truly horrible set of results in the North West seats. So bad I will not even mention the figures…………..
Nor does Caron…Reading LDV headlines one might believe that we are ‘neck and neck’ with Tories/Labour instead of stuck around 7%/8%….
Swallows and summers come to mind!
But surely this site isn’t the place for serious internal discussion and analysis as it’s more or less a public site. The site for that is the Members LDV site surely ?
I think regular readers of LDV can be afforded the compliment of having a fairly realistic idea of the difficult position the party has been in ever since the coalition. Against this background it is only natural for LDV to draw particular attention to those instances which give succour rather than those which merely confirm that we have still a long way to go in regaining widespread public support. I for one find it remarkable to see how many gains we are making in local government by-elections despite the stubbornly low national opinion poll figures. Something good is happening out there and we who pound the pavements need all the encouragement we can get.
One excellent result, two Seats where we didnt stand at all (one of those a Seat we could have won) & in general, another week of poor results. Two weeks probably doesnt mean anything, its too soon to say. The overall headline should be : ” Tories lose five Seats, Independants gain three, Labour & Libdems make one gain each.”
Looking at results over the long run, Our slow Local Recovery continues, for now.
Simple message. If you do nothing you get nothing (well, maybe 0.9%). If you are seen to work – you might get something.
The electorate are quite perceptive.
@Denis Loretto “Against this background it is only natural for LDV to draw particular attention to those instances which give succour …”
I can certainly see the point of that approach but it seems designed to invite a contrary response which can undo any motivational intent.
Perhaps the triumphalism of these articles could be dialled down a bit while still acknowledging the successes and congratulating those who achieved them and without ignoring the problems (Mark Pack seems to manage that very well in his blog).
@Tim Hill “The site for that is the Members LDV site surely?”
I would agree that this may not be the best forum for diagnosis and prognosis (and certainly not for developing strategy).
However, it is a good forum for party members to engage with views from the outside. I think that is something that this site is particularly good at.
I wonder if the Liberal Democrat would have won Northchurch (Dacorum) if there had been a popular Independent candidate such as the won who gained Petersfield (Bell Hill).
The poor result in Farnworth could have been because those who used to vote Lib Dem as a protest against the main parties switched to the Farnworth & Kersley Residents as a more effective way of sending a signal to an unpopular local Labour council ?
The Greens continue to lose ground as they are no doubt seen as representatives of the establishment bossing people around and UKIP has achieved its goal and many people are now nervous about the consequences and do not want to give it any more comfort until they see some results.
What is the reason for the Labour gain in Nottingham when they appear to have polled more votes than the Conservatives at the previous election ?