It’s back-to-back by-election gargantuan week for by-elections as we see 16 held this Thursday. It was another disaster week for Labour: they only held half of the 8 seats they were defending, losing 3 seats to the Tories and 1 to the Greens. The Tories and Plaid Cymru both held onto all their seats (2 and 1 respectively). The Lib Dems were the only party to be contesting all 16, holding 4 out of 5 seats.
The most dominant result of the Lib Dems no doubt belongs to Cllr Tim Bloomer in the Grange & Cartmel ward of Westmorland & Furness BC. The Lib Dem vote share grew to a staggering 84.8%. Congratulations and a huge well done to Tim and the local team for the triumphant win.
Westmorland & Furness BC, Grange & Cartmel
Liberal Democrat (Tim Bloomer): 2180 (84.8%, +7.6%)
Conservative: 392 (15.2%, -3.5%)
Two by-elections in Stockport MBC were also comfortable Lib Dem holds. Cllr Rachel Bresnahan in the Bredbury Green & Romiley ward further grew the already high Lib Dem vote to 65.8%, close to tripling the vote of second place conservatives. Big congrats to Rachel and the team for making this win a reality.
Stockport LBC, Bredbury Green & Romiley
Liberal Democrat (Rachel Bresnahan): 1506 (65.8%, +7.1%)
Conservative: 552 (24.1%, +5.5%)
Labour: 127 (5.5%, -11.4%)
Green Party: 104 (4.5%, -1.2%)
The other hold in Stockport MBC sees Cllr Huma Khan winning the seat in the Cheadle West & Gatley ward with over 45% of the vote.
Stockport MBC, Cheadle West & Gatley
Liberal Democrat (Huma Khan): 1159 (45.1%, -12.0%)
Conservative: 553 (21.5%, +7.3%)
Labour: 517 (20.1%, +0.5%)
Green Party: 341 (13.3%, +4.2%)
The final hold of the week sees the Lib Dems in Tirymynach of Ceredigion CC successfully defending previously uncontested seat. The Lib Dems were to only ones out of all the major parties in England to have a significant amount of votes in this seat. Congratulations to Cllr Gareth Lewis and the team for winning the Welsh seat.
Ceredigion CC, Tirymynach
Liberal Democrat (Gareth Lewis): 285 (48.9%)
Plaid Cymru: 242 (41.5%)
Reform: 25 (4.3%)
Conservative: 17 (2.9%)
Labour: 8 (1.4%)
Green Party: 6 (1.0%)
There were also several impressive second place results by Lib Dems across the country this week, including but not limited to the Wetheral ward of Cumberland CC by John Rivers and the Ascot and Sunninghill ward in Windsor & Maidenhead BC by George Jezard. These are important for laying the groundwork for future Lib Dem gains. Huge thanks to John, George and their respective teams for the hard efforts.
Last but not least, it was almost a Lib Dem gain in the Royston Palace ward in North Herthfordshire DC. Gillian Lewis and the local Lib Dem team gathered further support, in contrast to Labour’s vote plummeting almost one third. They were only 4 votes from snatching the seat from Labour. Thank you to Gillian and the team for putting up such a good fight, you’ll get them next time.
North Hertfordshire DC, Royston Palace
Labour: 302 (25.9%, -12.4%)
Liberal Democrat (Gillian Lewis): 298 (25.6%, +1.7%)
Conservative: 280 (24.1%, -0.8%)
Reform: 196 (16.8%, new)
Green Party: 88 (7.6%, new)
For a full summary of these results, and all other principal council by-elections, please refer to the ALDC by-elections page here.
* Matthew Ma works in the Campaigns and Communications team at ALDC
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15 Comments
What is the lowest % by which a local Council seat (or PCC or mayoral election) has been won in recent years? The Royston By-election, in which the Labour candidate won on only just over 25% of the vote, must be a close contestant for this. But of course it’s not that surprising when you have 5 parties contesting the seat. Can we start publicising examples of non-credible election wins? (Yes, and I recall that Russell Johnston used to win his constituency on around 1/3rd of the vote).
And the reason for mislaying the seat in St Albans was?
Kirklees MBC, Holme Valley South – 17 October 2024
Conservative: 1639 (39.1%, -2.2%)
Labour: 1134 (27.0%, -18.3%)
Green Party: 734 (17.5%, +8.0%)
Reform: 551 (12.2%, new)
Liberal Dem. 158 ( 3.8%, -0.1%)
Independent 13 ( 0.4%, new)
Conservative GAIN from Labour.
No doubt William Wallace will be able to confirm this was part of the Colne Valley constituency which successfully elected Richard Wainwright as their Liberal M.P. time and again back in the 60’s, 70’s and 80’s.
The party should take extremely seriously why and what has gone wrong in former Liberal strongholds which elected Liberal/Lib Dem M.P.’s (such as Colne Valley, Berwick, Scottish Borders) and which are outside the comfy Home Counties and were Liberal strongholds. Without this, extending (and retaining ?) anything beyond the present 72 seats is unrealistic.
David Raw is correct that Holme Valley was part of Richard Wainwright’s seat, held until 1987. Colne Valley was a target seat as recently as 2010, so it is disappointing this time around, the party was unable to even find a local candidate to contest it and sunk to a deposit losing 5th place in July.
However there are more obvious and recent strongholds like Sheffield Hallam and those David names where it is a concern how significantly the Lib Dem strength has eroded. There is a real need for the party to consider how to re-build beyond the Home Counties and West Country where most of the parliamentary strength currently lies.
To go beyond the current 72 seats, we need to target efforts on building up party presence in the next tranche of most winnable seats. Progress is NOT dependent on revival in historically strong areas.
Whilst in some areas we have fallen away, in many more we are newly competitive. It is in those areas that we will win further seats.
“Whilst in some areas we have fallen away, in many more we are newly competitive. It is in those areas that we will win further seats.”
Agree – but regions should be trying to address the problems where areas have fallen away.
It’s a matter of limited resources – both logistical and financial. Where should such resources be focused.
Unless there’s been significant demographic change in historically strong areas, it must be the case that there’s potential for a revival.
Social changes have transformed Colne Valley since Richard Wainwright was its MP (and I was the Liberal candidate in Huddersfield West). Richard was proud of having preached in every Methodist chapel in the constituency. Sadly, there are now many fewer Methodists (and former textile workers) and, particularly in the Holme Valley to judge from house prices, younger professionals have moved in. It deserves treating as a seat more like Hallam and Harrogate than the old nonconformist heartlands of northern Liberalism.
This is the second week running that you have tried to hide a LD loss. (Ian Patterson’s point).
Please get a grip or don’t bother.
It’s always good to hear from William Wallace, and as someone who first met William when in the company of Richard Wainwright many years ago, I agree with much of what he has to say about social change in the Colne Valley.
But, there is more to be said beyond the decline of textiles, Methodism and Richard preaching in every Chapel. As a relatively wealthy man, Richard was able himself to employ a full time agent…… the hardworking and shrewd Edward Dunford.
Edward was the epitome of hard work and attention to detail in both local government and constituency matters. This always wins votes and cements support when it is applied, and I’m not convinced that a political party mostly focussing on the Home Counties always understands that……. and the malaise goes much wider than just the Colne Valley.
How many former strongholds have been allowed to decline outside the Home Counties for want of a well trained professional agent with local knowledge and support by what used to be called LPO ?
Talking about narrow victories – we mustn’t forget Dave Chadwick’s win this year in Brecon, Radnor and Cwm Tawe on 29.5% of the vote.
David Raw, you seem a tad obsessed with the Home Counties. I suppose I live in one of these. I can tell you that the concerns you express are exactly the same here, where the membership dwindles away each year because we are seen to be of no importance.
That, coupled with a party that has still to give itself an identity other than ‘not the Conservatives’, does not fill me with confidence. I do ask myself – what is the point of remaining a member of a party that won’t fight local elections properly?
It is very silly and a tad Newspeak not to mention losses and to discuss the reasons for them. We also need to address the success of the Tories in winning seats mostly from Labour. If this were to continue-and I accept that it may not-doesn’t the Part’s declared intention to demolish the rest of the blue wall look premature ? It might be worth waiting to see how the cookie crumbles and then posisbly attacking those Labour seats where we have local authority strength such as Hull, Newcastle, Liverpool and York.
@David Raw
I share your concern about the parties lack of attention to former areas of strength, particularly in labour facing areas. Though I’d say the focus should be on those where there is still something left in terms of either elevated local support (at least when compared to the surrounding area), and local membership and experienced/talented activists.
By and large this will be in places where we performed well if not won during the late 2000s, unfortunately in places like Colne valley we’d be starting up completely from scratch.
We must also not forget places like Sunderland central where local parties have miraculously build themselves up in the past few years despite no historic presence.
Building back from scratch can of course be done, we’ve been doing it in Southampton where we recently won a by election against labour; but it did require good candidates, experienced organisers and assistance from a stronger local party that we share part of a constituency with.
FAO William Wallace.
One won in February 2024 in Folkestone and Hythe with 24.2% (9 candidates). Another in Durham in 2019 on 22.2% (7). One in Ashford in 2015 on 23.5% – 6th and last place 100 votes behind the winner.