It has been a bumper package of by-elections this week, with eight polls for nine seats, including the replacement of a double-hatted councillor.
In Hinchley Wood, Claygate & Oxshott, Councillor Andy Burton and the team pulled off a great victory on Surrey County Council, which sees the end of Conservative control of the county. Congratulations!
Surrey County Council, Hinchley Wood, Claygate & Oxshott
Liberal Democrats (Andy Burton): 1,656 (38.1%, -6.2)
Conservative: 1,346 (31.0%, -16.0)
Independent: 659 (15.2%, new)
Reform UK: 551 (12.7%, +8.3)
Green Party: 101 (2.3%, new)
Labour: 31 (0.7%, -3.6)
Liberal Democrats GAIN from Conservative
Turnout: 34%
In East Hampshire, congratulations are also due to Councillor Lizzie Marshall and the team for this solid hold, with an increase in vote share!
East Hampshire District Council, Alton Amery
Liberal Democrats (Lizzie Marshall): 407 (54.9%, +1.6)
Reform UK: 189 (25.5%, new)
Conservative: 145 (19.6%, -9.9)
Liberal Democrat HOLD
Turnout: 36.45%
Back in Surrey, Runnymede Lib Dems were facing two elections for three seats. Commiserations to Jenny Coulon and Ronan McCaughey, whose increase in support wasn’t quite enough to hold off a Reform UK challenge to gain from the Conservatives. A strong effort has put them in a great position for future campaigns.
Runnymede Borough Council, Addlestone South
Reform UK: 467 (32.36%, +32.36)
Reform UK: 414
Liberal Democrats (Jenny Coulon): 356 (24.67%, +15.53)
Liberal Democrats (Ronan McCaughey): 352
Conservative: 329 (22.80%, -33.11)
Conservative: 273
Labour: 146 (10.12%, -18.05)
Labour: 129
Green Party: 145 (10.05%, +3.28)
Reform UK GAIN x2 from Conservative
Turnout: 28%
Reform UK also took the Surrey County Council seat, as Mike Smith also added to the Lib Dem vote share.
Surrey County Council, Addlestone
Reform UK: 931 (34.2%, new)
Conservative: 659 (24.2%, -25.9)
Liberal Democrats (Mike Smith): 473 (17.4%, +9.2)
Green Party: 441 (16.2%, +1.9)
Labour: 222 (8.1%, -10.9)
Reform UK GAIN from Conservative
Thank you once again to Andrew Joyce, who by-election-watchers will have seen before, for getting the Liberal Democrats on to the ballot in Abermaw.
Gwynedd Council, Abermaw
Independent (Cleaver): 299 (49.6%, new)
Independent (Davies Fisher): 161 (26.7%, new)
Reform UK: 107 (17.7%, new)
Conservative: 20 (3.3%, -5.1)
Pirate Party: 11 (1.8%, new)
Liberal Democrats (Andrew Joyce): 5 (0.8%, new)
Independent GAIN from Independent
Also getting us back onto the ballot where we were absent last time was Miruna Leitoiu in Hounslow – thank you.
Hounslow London Borough Council, Cranford
Labour: 951 (40.7%, -12.6)
Conservative: 679 (29.1%, +10.0)
Reform UK: 405 (17.3%, new)
Green Party: 156 (6.7%, -7.5)
Liberal Democrats (Miruna Leitoiu): 145 (6.2%, new)
Labour HOLD
Turnout: 21.65%
In Doncaster, our thanks go to Giulia Savini for standing this time.
Doncaster MBC, Bentley
Reform UK: 1,062 (43.8%, +4.2)
Labour: 912 (37.6%, +4.7)
Independent: 169 (7.0%, new)
Conservative: 121 (5.0%, -5.8)
Green Party : 79 (3.3%, -5.6)
Liberal Democrats (Giulia Savini): 39 (1.6%, -3.1)
TUSC: 29 (1.2%, -2.0)
Workers Party: 15 (0.6%, new)
Reform UK HOLD
Turnout: 19.08%
Sadly, there was no Liberal Democrat candidate in East Renfrewshire.
East Renfrewshire Council, Barrhead, Liboside and Uplawmoor
1st prefs:
Labour: 1,901 (41.9%, +21.7)
SNP: 1,142 (25.1%, -8.3)
Reform UK: 1,018 (22.4%, new)
Green Party: 247 (5.4%, +2.0)
Conservative: 207 (4.6%, -6.2)
Abolish Holyrood: 27 (0.6%, new)
Labour HOLD
Thank you to all of our candidates, agents, and campaign teams.
A full summary of these results, and all other principal council by-elections, can be found on the ALDC by-elections page here.
* Chris Ward is the Campaigns and Communications Intern for ALDC
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11 Comments
5 is just embarrassing in Abermaw as is 39 in Doncaster. Did we only target the one seat in Surrey we actually won and devoted less resources to the division where.3 seats were up for grabs?
Five votes in Abermaw !!!!!……. What the heck is going on (or not going on) with the Welsh Lib Dem’s. .?
Time for Sir Ed/Lord Pack to find out. “Reflecting on the position” is not nearly good enough. I’m old enough to remember when the old Merioneth seat was a prime target seat.
The Pirate Party got 11 votes. Oooh arrr!
@Ian Patterson: It may be briefly embarrassing in the counting place following the Returning Officer’s declaration. Beyond that, nobody cares besides the political nerds who keep track of these results.
And yes we focus on campaigns where we think we can win. Building up support in currently unwinnable areas (as most of our current strongholds once were) is a long-term project with many “embarrassing” results along the wayl
@Ian Patterson. “Did we only target the one seat in Surrey we actually won and devoted less resources to the division where.3 seats were up for grabs?” I doubt we have many resources that could have been moved effectively from one to the other. Addlestone does not look like a seat that has been abandoned. In the county, we went from 4th to 3rd and more than doubled our share of the vote. In the district, we went from third to second almost trippling it.
The Addlestone seats are in Runnymede and Weybridge, which is a LD Parliamentary target seat. Look at the progress in Addlestone South since the October 24 local by-election.
This is one of the least demographically promising areas for us in Runnymede and Weybridge.
These are very encouraging results. It should be noted we were nowhere in Runnymede and Weybridge until very recently.
As for Wales, we have also had some encouraging results in recent months, again in areas where we have local strength.
I think the Abermaw (Barmouth) result could be put in a better light, by comparison Labour had an even smaller percentage vote in the Surrey CC gain we had!
Yes clutching at straws, but seriously hats off to those who offer to stand in places we have little chance of winning.
The only way to avoid very poor results in very weak areas is not to stand candidates. This idea is repeatedly promoted by some of a defeatist outlook.
I am strongly against the idea. In many areas in the Golden Triangle we once had derisory support; we wouldn’t be where we are today, if we’d simply not stood paper candidates.
As far as I know 5 votes is the lowest we have ever got in a local by-election in England & Wales (excluding town/parish councils) equalling bad results in Denbighshire in 2023 and Ashfield in 2018. Labour have only been as low as 5 votes once – in East Lindsey last year. The Tories low point is 4 votes – they achieved this in Neath Port Talbot in 2016 and again with the same council in 2018.
50 years ago there were 3 political parties in England that could get reasonable levels support in at least some constituencies. Today there are 5 main national political parties. And obviously add the nationalists in Scotland/Wales. Clearly 5 (or 6) parties are competing, then it’s much more likely that any party is going to have places where its vote share will be tiny, compared to if only 3 (or 4) parties are competing. And further add in the increased willingness of voters to vote tactically, and you have a perfect recipe for that sometimes you’re going to get <100 or even <10 votes. I don't like seeing results that low, but in that context, I wouldn't be unduly worried about it happening sometimes.
Five party’s will go to six if and when Corbyn gets going. Numbers are therefore bound to drop We won Truro North this year with only 19pc. Therefore I would expect us to gain seats with a reduced vote.