Most of the pundits, and the party, appear to think this leadership election is over already. Paddy Power has Tim Farron at 1/5 odd-on next to poor Norman’s 3/1. My view is that it’s going to be a lot closer than everyone is thinking – and that there may, just possibly, be a surprise in store.
Why so? I would point to three main reasons. The first is that the contest will soon refocus from one between ‘Coalition Man’ and ‘Dissenting Man’ to one between two MPs who have to convince the public that we are worth voting for again. Both men come over quite differently. Norman is pragmatic, non-tribal and empathic which plays well with swing voters but, arguably, he has not yet found a way to portray his charisma on television. Tim attracts attention, can capture the mood but can, at times, lack authority and gravitas. Tim will certainly be a populist which, as a small party, we will need. But many party members will worry about whether a Lib Dem party under Tim will ever add up to more than a string of likeable but slightly idealistic positions.
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