Author Archives: Tom Richards

Opinion: A rousing campaigning message from Lord Ashcroft (of all people)

Lord Ashcroft has done another enormous piece of polling, this time into the Lib Dem vote. A few of the more encouraging findings:

    • More people want a coalition including the Lib Dems (31%) than a Conservative majority (30%)
    • 30% of people could see themselves voting Lib Dem at the next general election
    • Only 1 in 5 think the Lib Dems have no real influence
    • Lib Dems outpoll the Conservatives on:
    o“Represents the whole country, not just some”(24% v 21%),
    o “Its heart is in the right place”(47% v 35%),
    o “stands for fairness”(41% v 30%)
    o “Stands for equal opportunity for all”(39% v 28%)
    o “Wants to help ordinary

Posted in Op-eds and Polls | Tagged , and | 7 Comments

Why the UKIP surge is good for Liberal Democrats

Party activists should be cheering on UKIP’s rise in the polls. Why? Because a UKIP surge would most likely end up making it easier for Liberal Democrats to win in Conservative marginals. By my reckoning, every 1% on UKIP’s popularity increases the Lib Dem majority over the Conservatives in these areas by about 90 votes. If last weekend’s polling, putting UKIP at 14%, is correct, that gives Lib Dems in Con-Lib marginals about a 1000 vote head start.

Where do these numbers come from? A recent ComRes poll found that, of people who said they were going to vote for …

Posted in Op-eds and Polls | Tagged | 43 Comments

Opinion: We should be making the positive case for immigration

The Economist’s front page this week signals its leader on immigration – which says that the Government is getting it wrong on immigration.

The Economist is right. The Government is getting it wrong. All the evidence points towards skilled migrants having a positive impact on the economy for everyone that’s already in the country. And the evidence for unskilled workers having any negative impact on wages or jobs is at best ambiguous. As the article points out (give it a read if you haven’t), making it near on impossible for …

Posted in Op-eds | Tagged | 33 Comments
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Recent Comments

  • User AvatarArnold Kiel 21st Jan - 12:38pm
    MPs would be absolutely mad to put no deal on a ballot, and the EU will not grant an extension for such a crazy purpose....
  • User AvatarArnold Kiel 21st Jan - 12:18pm
    Joseph Bourke, the only somewhat beneficial Brexit resolution is its cancellation, the sooner the better. Consequently, compensating public "investment" might have some payback only in...
  • User AvatarJoseph Bourke 21st Jan - 12:02pm
    Arnold, point taken that public investment cannot of itself resolve the structural damage to the economy that Brexit would involve. But what we are talking...
  • User AvatarArnold Kiel 21st Jan - 11:50am
    Peter Martin, the Berlin example supports my viewpoint. Bonn continues to do ok as part of the old "rheinischer Kapitalismus" area, while Berlin continues to...
  • User AvatarJoseph Bourke 21st Jan - 11:36am
    PeterMartin, economic growth athough slowing over the longer term has a relatively consistent trend of a little over 2%. Investment spending and spending on public...
  • User AvatarLaurence Cox 21st Jan - 11:25am
    @David Beckett You can blame Sir Winston Churchill for that. When the House of Commons was bombed in WW2, it was the Government that he...