27 Comments

• Joe Otten 2nd Oct '07 - 11:13am

  You can still get 1.76 on Betfair, down from 1.93 yesterday, on a GE this year.

  These odds are still too long IMHO for many people to be really in the know.

• wit and wisdom 2nd Oct '07 - 11:25am

  Ahem, I said he’d call it in August…
  http://frivolityrules.blogspot.com/2007/08/can-you-see-bottom-of-hole-yet-john.html

• Chris Paul 2nd Oct '07 - 11:25am

  I’m still betting my house on June 2009. Can’t hand it down according to them Tories. But hey, those odds look very good indeed. Can anyone help settle and argument we were having in the pub? What is the shortest ever tenure for a Manchester MP?

• welshproudliberal 2nd Oct '07 - 12:07pm

  I would say that the voice is wrong on this.

  The government have already given assurances to t he press that Brown will not go to the queen during the Tory conference, which would strongly suggest Friday but definately rule out tomorrow.

• James 2nd Oct '07 - 1:09pm

  It’s surely going to be next Monday or Tuesday,to give him a chance to tell parliament first (maybe getting them to vote on it- first) in line with Brown’s supposedly “new style” of government.

• Mark Wright 2nd Oct '07 - 1:19pm

  Chris Paul, have you ever considered that you might have a bit of an obsessional problem with John Leech? You don’t seem to be able to write anything without attacking him. I think stalkers often start like this. Did he steal your girlfriend in high-school or something? 😉

• Cy Pomeroy 2nd Oct '07 - 1:51pm

  I doubt it. He will want to see the opinion polls first to see if the Tories get a conference bounce, which, sadly I expect they will. I’m still of the opinion that Brown is a cautious man and will wait till next year.

• Mark Wright 2nd Oct '07 - 2:06pm

  “Sources in the know” are now also saying it will be called on Thursday.

  Or Friday. Or next Monday. Or next Tuesday…

• Ed 2nd Oct '07 - 3:32pm

  So what would be the timescale for a Lib Dem leadership contest then given a 1 November election?

  😉

• Harry Hayfield 2nd Oct '07 - 3:58pm

  With regard to the question about tenure, these are the times when Manchester has cropped up as a gain or a by-election:

  Manchester, Blackley: Con gain 1951
  Manchester, Moss Side: Con hold 1961
  Manchester, Openshaw: Lab hold 1963
  Manchester, Blackley: Lab gain 1964
  Manchester, Gorton: Lab hold 1967
  Manchester, Exchange: Lab hold 1973
  Manchester, Moss Side: Con hold 1978
  Manchester, Central: Lab hold 1979

  I should point out that if Mr. Leech loses Withington that would place his tenure at 30 months

• Greg Stone 2nd Oct '07 - 7:27pm

  Have it on very good authority (i.e. from a senior Labour NEC member) that it is 1st Nov and the announcement will be Thurs or Fri.

• Hywel Morgan 2nd Oct '07 - 8:44pm

  Moss Side was a Labour hold. I knew the Tories had declined in Manchester but didn’t they had declined so far!

  Didn’t Michael Steed fight one of these with “we need a revolution” as his slogan? 🙂

  If you extend it to Greater Manchester, Michael Winstanley was MP for Hazel Grove for only Feb-Oct 1974.

• Hywel Morgan 2nd Oct '07 - 8:53pm

  Joe – odds on political bets aren’t that great an indicator.

  Labour were STILL odds on to win Dunfermline as the returning officer got up to announce the result.

  That said if people are so certain there looks to be some fairly easy money to be made on Betfair!

• Harry Hayfield 2nd Oct '07 - 10:21pm

  Then why Mr. Stone (and I use that reference with the all the respect that a PPC can get) does Nick Robinson say not until next week?

• nigelashton 3rd Oct '07 - 12:28am

  12 – Hywel, Michael Steed was candidate in the 1973 Manchester Exchange by-election. He was also the candidate in the 1967 Brierley Hill by-election, which was the ‘revolution’ one.

• Harry Hayfield 3rd Oct '07 - 9:19am

  So what time today then?

• Joe Otten 3rd Oct '07 - 9:25am

  Betfair now 1.45 (4/9 on).

  This market is very different to a by-election because of the likelihood of insider trading by any real insiders to the decision. If you know, you could clean up. This is why I am reluctant to place a bet here even if the odds look good.

• anon 3rd Oct '07 - 11:08am

  i made quite a bit of money on the dunfermline by-election. First of all we got the nod from those at the count about the result and piled on with the ‘insider information’. Fair enough. We chuckled about how clever we were. Then the returning officer got up to announce and we stuck a bit more on. Then, 15 minutes atfer the result was declared, we logged back on to see how much we had made and we found that betfair had not closed the book. So we happily took all the remaining money out of the market (as, by that time, anyone could, regardless of insider info). We fully expected betfair to backtrack and reverse bets struck after the announcement but that never happened. The post announcement profit was only about £100 but that was still money we didn’t have before.

• Dan 3rd Oct '07 - 11:43am

  Brown to go to the Palace on Tuesday. 23 day campaign (like the recent by-elections).

  Labour MPs apparently told timetable at their conference.

  Just as well M’Lord Rennard had sussed this out before May!

• peter 3rd Oct '07 - 12:00pm

  Meanwhile two Tory councillors sign up for lib dems in Barrow

  http://www.nwemail.co.uk/news/viewarticle.aspx?id=549166

• John D 3rd Oct '07 - 12:16pm

  It will be next week (Tuesday) as they want to formally announce the CSR (Comprehensive Spending Review) which will major on spending on health education and transport, putting the Tories on the spot eg what would they cut?

• Chris Paul 3rd Oct '07 - 4:25pm

  So, for the City of Manchester stakes John Leech will set a new record by more than a decade when he loses?

  But Mike Winstanley – someone I used to know quite well via Manchester Uni sport – has Mark Hunter safe when he loses?

  If Gordon calls it after an absolutely awe inspiring Cameron hour of feelgood quackery.

  As Iain Dale said Tories now absolutely bound to win.

• Chris Paul 3rd Oct '07 - 4:33pm

  Mark Wright: what are you on about? My interest in Leech’s fate is surely understandable? The electoral commission have moved me so that Leech could be my MP if he wins at the next election. I really don’t want that to happen. His Christie Hospital Hoax was one of the most low down pieces of politics I have ever seen or heard of. His fallacious leaflets were even given to dying patients in waiting rooms. You really cannot get any lower than that. Or perhaps you know different?

• Joe Otten 3rd Oct '07 - 7:03pm

  Still no sign of that election. He surely can’t call it tonight after Cameron has just told him to. It would look weak.

  And the Betfair market has disappeared. No indication why.

• Hywel Morgan 4th Oct '07 - 7:36pm

  Odds on Betfair up to 2ish. Yesterday they were down to 1.4.

  So anyone with impeccable sources could take £500 and turn it into £1000 🙂

• mindstar 4th Oct '07 - 7:41pm

  I really think that he has to go in November, if he doesnt he will look foolish, cowardly and reckless for talking it up.

  Re John Leech, he is probably safer than you think.

• Hywel Morgan 4th Oct '07 - 9:17pm

  I don’t think it’s going to happen now. Unless macho “can’t back down -ability” takes over