By-Election watch

We are defending 3 seats tonight and the first result is in. It’s a good one.

A healthy increase in the vote, too.

Sadly the news from Uttlesford is not so good as we were not able to hold off a challenge from a Residents’ Group.

Well done to us for fielding a candidate (Lib Dem Voice contributor Alex Hegenbarth) in the Forest of Dean ward of Lydbrook and Guardian where we gained 6.6% of the vote in a seat that the Greens took from UKIP. This is the first time we’ve stood in the ward since the 90s.

The Tories have lost a seat in Cheshire, not to us this time, but to Bollington First.

Labour have held two wards, in Dudley and Oldham. We didn’t stand in Dudley but we did in Oldham in a ward that was tough for us – but people have started to get the habit of voting for us and they may well continue with that in the future.

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  • I understand the Uttlesford/Elsenham & Henham loss is due in part to the (long-running) contentiousness of new housing around Saffron Walden – the Residents’ Association were against it. One LD resignation was to retrain to become a nurse, the other to move away.

  • The NIMBY Elsenham residents want the 2000 new houses at Dunmow. Of course Dunmow residents object to this proposal. Uttlesford DC does not have a District Plan, so it’s a developer free for all which will be decided by the Planning Inspector. The Residents are doomed to failure.

  • Oldham, “people have started to get the habit of voting for us and they may well continue with that in the future”.

    A drop from 2.9% to 1.1% doesn’t suggest that. A result like that deserves a post mortem by the regional party rather than a glossing over by LDV.

  • Kevin Hawkins 17th Feb '17 - 9:14am

    On 31st March 2016 we failed to retain a seat in Richmondshire. That was the last time until yesterday that we lost a previously held seat on a principle authority in a by-election. To go 322 days without a single loss is probably unprecedented for any major party in recent times. Since then we have gained 30 seats (20 from the Tories, 6 from Labour, and 2 each from UKIP and Independents). We have also held 16 seats.
    Not a bad record. Let’s hope that Uttlesford is just a temporary glitch.

  • Yesterday looks bad in comparison to the last few weeks but actually if you average out all the contests so far this year our performance is much the same as in the second half of last year. On that basis I would suggest that our “National Equivalent Vote” share in May will be around 20%, a 6% improvement on 2016 which itself was a 4% rise on 2015. Its the same picture of a slow steady recovery.
    Our Opinion Poll rating continue to lag behind but even there we seem to have pulled level with UKIP.

  • paul barker;
    Ipsos Mori gives Con 40 (43) Lab 29 (31) Lib Dem 13 (11) UKIP 9 (6) Green 4 (4) yesterday . UKIP seems to be on the rise again in the opinion polls but not so much in actual votes. No doubt their supporters are enjoying the reports about Paul Nuttall. They seem to thrive on bad publicity. I hope that has been taken into consideration in Stoke-on-Trent Central.

  • Andrew McCaig 17th Feb '17 - 12:04pm

    Mori are the most volatile of the pollsters and those 3% up and down movements are just normal. UKIP were artificially low last time and generally do worst with Mori, while we do best with them..
    But back in the summer we were getting 7% with Mori and that change is real in direction, even if the magnitude is hard to judge. Poll of polls on Britain Elects has us up to about 10℅ compared to under 7℅ back in April.

  • Kevin Hawkins 17th Feb '17 - 12:14pm

    Does anyone know how many votes Labour got in the Forest of Dean? The number is missing on the ALDC site. I only ask because I like to keep my stats up to date.

  • nigel hunter 17th Feb '17 - 12:38pm

    Any lost seat MUST have an autopsy to see where it went wrong and corrected.

  • @ Nigel Hunter “Any lost seat MUST have an autopsy to see where it went wrong and corrected”.

    And any seat that gets only 1% needs to be thoroughly examined by the regional party. Any half decent candidate who makes an effort and puts in some work ought to do better than that – to do anything less is to show no respect to the electorate and it damages ‘the brand’.

  • I presume Oldham have elections this year and decided to do nothing in the by election and concentrate on their target seats?

    Did they do a leaflet? My view which I know ALDC does not agree with is that you shouldn’t put up paperless candidates in by elections (ok in all outs) as I leads to ridiculously low votes….and no Kudos for the party…. The one hing that is clear is that although our ratings are slightly improving nationally in reality it will be back to the fact we can only win where we have the organisation on the ground…which thankfully is recovering…but in many areas will take years to rebuild

  • Ian Patterson 17th Feb '17 - 7:36pm

    If memory does not deceive me, didn’t we mislay a couple of seats to the Tories in Aberdeenshire late last year?

  • The by-election in Emmbrook (Wokingham) was held Friday 17th Feb. The result is:

    LDEM 59.7% (+22.3%)
    CON 33.3% (-4.5%)
    UKIP 3.9% (-11.7%)
    LAB 3.0% (-6.1%)

    Congratulations to Cllr. Imogen Shepherd-Dubey as candidate, Prue Bray as agent and all those involved in an excellent campaign.

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