That’s the question posted by the Western Morning News’s London editor, Matt Chorley:
CONSERVATIVE high command make no secret of the importance of the Westcountry to their hopes of winning the general election, but there seems to be growing unease in the region about the impact (negative or non-existent) their leader is having on voters…
Speaking to MPs and PPCs from Devon, Cornwall and Somerset there is a distinct lack of confidence, even in private.
They talk about “hanging on” to seats, “picking up one or two” others. Don’t forget the Tories need to win an extra 10 seats in the three counties, all but one from the Lib-Dems, to secure a majority of just one.
This mirrors a previous report in The Times that:
[Conservative] Party strategists privately admit that some incumbent MPs, particularly Lib Dems, are putting up fiercer-than-expected resistance.
Not helping the Conservatives in the South West have been events such as the complaints from a Cornwall choir that it had been duped into doing fund raising for the Conservative Party and the allegations that their Parliamentary candidate Caroline Righton faked a message about Lib Dem Stephen Gilbert in a botched smear attempt.
Hat-tip: Jonathan Calder
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7 Comments
It is a positive sign that Lord Ashdown is yomping down west as well. However this is the same newspaper that has backed Dick Cole of MK for St Austell and Newquay and declared it a 3 way marginal……
No they don’t. Not at all. They need to win seats from Labour. They know they need to win seats from Labour.
They can not take a single seat from us at all and still win the GE. Sure, it’s harder, but that’s a fatuously uninformed comment.
Echoing MatGB above, Cameron’s strategy is all about taking seats from Labour in English towns. Not inner cities, or the “Celtic fringe” or the shires. Taking seats from us will be a bonus (and they will).
Well there are some heartening signs granted. Cameron doesn’t play at all well with the kind of Tories (very right wing and traditional) who are in the majority down here. Though it is fair to say our unfortunate activities re the Euro referendum did a lot of damage with some of our own supporters who take the Liberal and Democratic bits of Liberal Democracy most seriously.
What next, bar charts and “winning here” leaflets !!!!
No time for complacency chaps. I think the Tories are playing down expectations.
MatGB and Tabman are comepletely right.
It is nonsense to suggest that the Tories ‘have to win X Lib Dem seats to win a majority’.
They have to win a majority of seats, none of them ‘need’ to come from the Lib Dems.
It is far more likely that they will win seats like Dudley North, Reading West and Ipswich from Labour than Oxford West, Mid Dorset or North Devon from the Lib Dems, despite the swing needed being bigger.
The Tories want to have an overall majority and not have to negotiate with the Lib Dems. They have poured lots of money in the South West in order to do this. Whether our MPs hold on depends on the reputation of the MP and the organisation of the local party. These considerations are difficult to quantify if you do not know what is happening in each constituency. The Tories have made gains in the South West before, notably Weston Super Mare and Devon West. This time round the national trends show the Lib Dems down 4% and the Tories up 7%. A difference of 11%. That may change on election day, but we would be doing very well if we can get that down to 5%. Given many of the South West seats are marginal, it will take an almighty effort to hold on to most of them.
I hope we will hold on to all of them. I would be very impressed if we do.
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