Daily View 2×2: 12 June 2020

2 big stories

The Economist has launched its prediction model for the 2020 US Presidential election (registration required), and it makes for optimistic reading if you’re a liberal, with the current prediction suggesting that based on electoral college votes, the key state is Pennsylvania. The thing about that is that the current prediction indicates that Joe Biden has a 75% likelihood of winning Pennsylvania and, indeed, if their predictions are accurate, Biden is leading by 330 electoral college votes to 208.

Will it stay like that? With five months still to go until polling day, it’s unlikely, but if Donald Trump keeps provoking groups with traditionally poor turnout rates to vote, he may have a lot more time on his hands to tweet come mid-January.

It’s been another bad day for the Government’s track and trace policy, with indications that the app doesn’t work in tower blocks, and news that the NHS is only able to trace contacts for two-thirds of those who have been infected with coronavirus, as the remainder haven’t provided details of their contacts. Not world class, let alone world beating, as was promised.

2 social media posts

The Renew Europe Group in the European Parliament, now missing its Liberal Democrats, sadly, continue to be on the right side of the argument…

And, finally, I liked this, and you might too…

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3 Comments

  • Peter Martin 12th Jun '20 - 9:38am

    Maybe that should be 3 big stories?

    I’ve no problem removing statues of slave traders but if we are removing the “Germans” episode of Fawlty Towers then we’ve probably gone a bit too far. The humour was clearly directed as us Brits and not the sensible group of German people who had the misfortune to book in for a stay.

    https://www.largsandmillportnews.com/news/national-news/18512417.uktv-removes-dont-mention-war-episode-fawlty-towers/

  • I see nothing optimistic for Liberals in the prospect of a Biden win (nor, obviously, a Trump one).

    As has often been observed, the Republicans and Democrats have degenerated into the Red and Blue sub-brands of the Wall Street Party respectively. It’s a distinction without a difference.

    But even allowing for that why would the Dems pick Biden given the apparently well justified concerns about his health and, according to some, his growing mental confusion?

    It is surely precisely because of his health issues. He will be either the front man for Deep State actors pulling the strings from the shadows or a pawn in a manoeuvre to get an unelected and unelectable Vice President into the top job. If he picks Hillary Clinton for VP then it’s the latter and he will only last perhaps six months before ill health ‘forces’ him to step down.

    It all reminds me of the late Soviet Union where Leonid Brezhnev held the top job from 1964 until his death in 1982. His hostility to political reform caused societal and technological decline while for the last 10 years or so he was manifestly medically incapable but kept in place as a front man for the decaying regime. By the time of his death, the USSR was terminally wounded by bad governance and didn’t long survive.

    History may not repeat but it sure does rhyme. If elected, will Biden prove to be the US’s Brezhnev?

  • Andrew Melmoth 12th Jun '20 - 5:10pm

    @Peter Martin
    The Fawlty Towers episode wasn’t removed because of the war references it was removed because of a short section of frankly horrible dialogue that contains repeated use of the ‘N’ word. The BBC edited the offending scene in 2013 with Cleese’s cooperation. It’s not clear why UKTV weren’t already using the edited version.

    The clumsy way they announced this without making the reason clear has allowed the right to run their ‘political correctness gone mad’ narrative, deflecting from the issues of racial inequality that have been so powerfully raised in recent weeks.

    The frustrating thing is no-one from BLM even raised this as an issue but it has given bad faith actors an opportunity to try to undermine the BLM message. UKTV could have just announced they were using edited version from now on. I doubt many people would want to see the offending bit of dialogue remain if they actually saw it. There was a perfectly sensible way to deal with this but instead it has become another silly culture war skirmish, a distraction from the debate we should be having.

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