00:35
So, here we are, a by-election in a Liberal Democrat held seat, only the fifth such contest fought by the Party or its predecessor since 1945. This will be our live thread for the early evening, and I start with what is, hopefully, a good omen…
Warm congratulations to Sushila Abraham and @kingstonlibdems for convincing win in #Kingston #Berrylands LD 948, CON 761, LAB 455, Gn 112
— Jonathan Fryer (@jonathanfryer) February 28, 2013
Congratulations to all in Kingston for fighting such a great campaign despite losing so much potential campaigning support to the Eastleigh campaign.
00:43
Michael Crick announces turnout as being 52.2%, which would equate to a Liberal Democrat majority of 2,906 on the basis of the 2010 result. And, amidst some positive rumours, here’s what Ladbrokes have got to say…
Ladbrokes General Election seat lines (with latest changes): Lab 313.5 (+2), Con 268.5 (-5), LD 38.5 (+3)
— Ladbrokes Politics (@LadPolitics) March 1, 2013
00:59
Turnout confirmed as being 52.8%. That’ll trust me to believe everything that Michael Crick says…
01:02
Over at the Guardian, Andrew Sparrow says that Keith House, the Liberal Democrat campaign manager, and Leader of Eastleigh Borough Council, is telling journalists that the Liberal Democrats have won.
01:10
Anorak corner, courtesy of Greg Stone…
Excluding WW2 coalition (Berwick, 1944), last Lib by election hold in govt was Banbury, June 22 1922. Also held Moray / Nairn day before.
— Greg Stone (@gm_stone) March 1, 2013
01:18
News from the Wirral, where Labour have taken Pensby & Thingwall ward from the Conservatives with a majority of 563. Wirral West, the constituency within which the ward falls, is a Conservative marginal.
01:25
John Curtice says that there probably won’t be a recount to decide who comes second and third. All I know is that it happened to me as agent in Dulwich and West Norwood in 2005, and we went from being 98 behind to being 1,052 ahead after a bundle check. Just saying…
01:32
Will the Conservatives come third?
Farage says ‘minimum second’ for UKIP in #eastleigh, adds ‘very close’.
— Robin Brant (@robindbrant) March 1, 2013
01:34
Anorak corner revisited…
Correction to previous tweet – Libs were in National Govt at March 1934 by election hold in Combined Scottish Universities seat.
— Greg Stone (@gm_stone) March 1, 2013
01:43
A straw in the wind for later today?
I am off to bed. Lib Dems holding seat is one thing. If UKIP matches Tory vote that’s more worrying. Until the morning…
— Tim Montgomerie (@TimMontgomerie) February 28, 2013
Sleep well, Tim!
* Mark Valladares is the Friday Day Editor of Liberal Democrat Voice.
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5 Comments
Just home from a long hard day pounding the streets of Eastleigh. I haven’t seen such strength and unity of purpose in the party for ages. The tough events of the last months seem to have made us more resolute, and hoping we can get the result we all hope for.
I’ve just got back from the count for the Berrylands by-election in Kingston, where I’m chair of the local party – great result! For completeness (and of some significance given the emerging news from Eastleigh) I should add that UKIP gained 175 votes.
This is the ward where the offices for Edward Davey and Kingston Liberal Democrats are situated, and where we toppled the leader of the Conservative group in 2006, so we were determined to hold on to it. The by-election was triggered by the sad death of one of our councillors, Frances Moseley.
We had a record number of activists out in Berrylands yesterday – 76 in all, including some MPs who had to pop back to Westminster during the day. I did manage a few phone calls to Eastleigh myself between sessions on the local phone bank.
Another one for Greg Stone: have any other seats had three consecutive Liberal Democrat MPs?
Orkney & Shetland of course
Edinburgh West (Gorrie, Barrett, Crockart) and, depending on what you think the successor seat is, Truro (Penhaligan, Taylor, Gilbert in St Austell, but not Truro itself).