Eastleigh by-election live thread


So, here we are, a by-election in a Liberal Democrat held seat, only the fifth such contest fought by the Party or its predecessor since 1945. This will be our live thread for the early evening, and I start with what is, hopefully, a good omen…

Congratulations to all in Kingston for fighting such a great campaign despite losing so much potential campaigning support to the Eastleigh campaign.


Michael Crick announces turnout as being 52.2%, which would equate to a Liberal Democrat majority of 2,906 on the basis of the 2010 result. And, amidst some positive rumours, here’s what Ladbrokes have got to say…


Turnout confirmed as being 52.8%. That’ll trust me to believe everything that Michael Crick says…


Over at the Guardian, Andrew Sparrow says that Keith House, the Liberal Democrat campaign manager, and Leader of Eastleigh Borough Council, is telling journalists that the Liberal Democrats have won.


Anorak corner, courtesy of Greg Stone…


News from the Wirral, where Labour have taken Pensby & Thingwall ward from the Conservatives with a majority of 563. Wirral West, the constituency within which the ward falls, is a Conservative marginal.


John Curtice says that there probably won’t be a recount to decide who comes second and third. All I know is that it happened to me as agent in Dulwich and West Norwood in 2005, and we went from being 98 behind to being 1,052 ahead after a bundle check. Just saying…


Will the Conservatives come third?


Anorak corner revisited…


A straw in the wind for later today?

Sleep well, Tim!

* Mark Valladares is the Friday Day Editor of Liberal Democrat Voice.

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  • Just home from a long hard day pounding the streets of Eastleigh. I haven’t seen such strength and unity of purpose in the party for ages. The tough events of the last months seem to have made us more resolute, and hoping we can get the result we all hope for.

  • Another one for Greg Stone: have any other seats had three consecutive Liberal Democrat MPs?

  • Orkney & Shetland of course

  • Edinburgh West (Gorrie, Barrett, Crockart) and, depending on what you think the successor seat is, Truro (Penhaligan, Taylor, Gilbert in St Austell, but not Truro itself).

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