Well, it’s done. The polls have closed and we have a long wait till the results come through, although the exit poll, which struck terror into us in 2015 will just have been published.
Most of us are at counts but we’ll be keeping an eye on what’s happening when we can.
This thread is for you to discuss what’s going on. It’s going to be a nail biting few hours.
Here are when some of the seats in which we have the most interest are likely to declare. The Press Association has a full list here. If all the Edinburgh seats declare at 4 am, I shall be very surprised. That’s all I’m saying. I might once have been tempted to say I’d ingest headgear, but that’s been tried before and isn’t a good look.
2 am
Ceredigion. Will our sole Welsh MP get back in?
3 am
Before this election, few would have had Vauxhall as a key Lib Dem prospect but we’ve been doing well against Brexiteer Labour MP Kate Hoey. It declares this hour.
We’ll also have Bermondsey and Southwark to see if Simon Hughes gets back in.
And East Dunbartonshire (Jo Swinson)
Other seats with Lib Dem interest include Brecon and Radnorshire,
Also, we’ll get a flavour of how it’s going in Tory/SNP seats in Scotland. Will Angus Robertson, their leader in the Commons, hold on in Moray?
4 am
Lots of Lib Dem interest this hour.
Can Sarah Olney hold on in Richmond Park to the seat she won in a stunning by-election just six months ago?
Will Orkney and Shetland return Alistair Carmichael? The odds are good given the huge vote share we got last year in the Holyrood election.
North East Fife – held by us until 2015 and where Elizabeth Riches hopes to win seat back from the SNP
Cheltenham (Martin Horwood), Bath (Wera Hobhouse), Westmorland and Lonsdale (Tim Farron), North Norfolk (Norman Lamb), Carshalton and Wellington (Tom Brake), Twickenham (Vince Cable) are among our key seats announcing this hour.
Will Eluned Parrott pick up Cardiff Central?
Nick Clegg’s Sheffield Hallam result is due in at 4:30 ish.
Has Sue McGuire held on to Southport after John Puth’s retirement?
5 am
Edinburgh West (Christine Jardine)
Caithness, Sutherland and Easter Ross, where Jamie Stone is challenging an unpopular SNP MP.
Ross, Skye and Lochaber, Charles Kennedy’s old seat where Jean Davis is the candidate
Leeds North West (Greg Mulholland)
Kingston (Ed Davey)
Lewes (Kelly-Marie Blundell)
Cambridge (Julian Huppert)
We’ll also find out if Daisy Cooper has pulled off an amazing victory in St Albans
We might even have a chance in Argyll and Bute where the very popular Alan Reid is standing again
Also Manchester Gorton, which might have been a famous Lib Dem by-election victory for Jackie Pearcey, declares this hour.
6 am
Tim Farron stopped off in one of our most likely seats for a gain, Oxford West and Abingdon, for his last campaign rally last night. Can Layla Moran pull off a win?
Friday lunchtime
St Ives where Andrew George is standing again.
* Caron Lindsay is Editor of Liberal Democrat Voice and blogs at Caron's Musings
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147 Comments
Lib Dems should probably back Tories in return for concessions. On single market and public services. Looks like hung parliament according to the exit poll.
Hard to create a Labour government on 266 seats.
Exit poll prediction:
Con 314
Lab 266
SNP 34
LD 14
PC 3
Greens 1
UKIP 0
Other 18
If this is the result we will be in interesting times.
“Lib Dems should probably back Tories in return for concessions.”
Reliably wrong. Why would the Lib Dems support the Hard-Brexit, far-right Tory party?
May’s nasty , negative, personality-based campaign has back-fired spectacularly.
Eddie, we said that we would not be in a coalition.
Is it possible to have a confidence and supply agreement if the Tories guarantee a second referendum? Followed by GE if they lose it….
Hi David, I know, I’m not talking about coalition, but confidence and supply or whatever means the Queen needs to decide who has the support of parliament.
I would say Brexit is dead in the water.
Cons 314 + 11 NI Unionists = 325
This would be enough for the Conservatives to stay in office!
There is a question mark on the Scottish results and if the SNP get 4 more seats it is possible that the Conservative government can be removed.
@Keith
Here’s hoping, but I somehow feel the Tories will creep over the line. Theresa May on the other may well be dead in the water. The Tories can be more savage than most when it comes to failure…
Eddie
“Lib Dems should probably back Tories in return for concessions. On single market and public services. Looks like hung parliament according to the exit poll.”
Absolutely not! If Theresa May wants to go into coalition with us, the second word is OFF!
11 NI Unionists? That would need 8 DUP + 2 UUP + 1 Independent Uunionist. Good luck to Theresa May in stitching that up.
Let’s not jump ahead to confidence and supply yet, there is the purgatory of multiple marginals to be wallowed through…
Hi Paul, just to clarify, we can’t go into coalition after Tim Farron promised we won’t. I’m talking about more informal support in return for concessions. Has to be something on public services though, don’t blow all negotiating capital on a second referendum. 🙂
Awesome, but please no coalition deal.
If it proves right then its one of the great political blunders in British electoral history.
Eddie,
Sure just as long as they agree to the following red lines.
Introduction of PR for the upper chamber and lets say alternative vote for the lower. Vote on Brexit deal and and end to austerity. If they can swallow that I’d talk but there is not a cat in hells chance of that.
We are going to have to think very hard about this, my instinct is to say no deals unless Brexit is dropped completely.
For now, lets just quote Mrs T -“Rejoice, Rejoice!”
Too good to be true. If it sounds too good to be true it probably is.
An extremely surprising exit poll. If true, what has happened. The pledge to abolish tuition fees plus a loss of confidence in the PM? Interesting times we live in.
Last time this happened, if the exit poll is right, you betrayed us by backing the Tories. Remember were that got you, betray us again and you will be finished forever.
Looking at the details on the BBC exit poll, it has LD gaining Caithness, Dunbartonshire E, Edinburgh W, Ross & Skye, plus likely Fife NE and Gordon. However it also seems to have LD losing Leeds NW, which makes an overall 13 I think? Can anyone see where they think the 14th seat will be?
If if if the Tories don’t get a majority we had better not entertain AT ALL the possibility of coalition.
Well…. it wont be exactly that. There will be like a tolarance on the predictions. If it is hung it will be interesting to see how much so; will the “coalition of chaos” (lol) have more seats than the tories?
I hope we can edge a few more and get to like 18 perhaps. I imagine more than that is wishful thinking. The other factor is overall % of vote. I feel like we will be up on that a lot.
I would like to say that I’ll be watching the results, but after dragging my ageing and O so large body round Southport, I’m rather knackered. Best of luck to the candidates.
Eddie
“Hi Paul, just to clarify, we can’t go into coalition after Tim Farron promised we won’t. I’m talking about more informal support in return for concessions. Has to be something on public services though, don’t blow all negotiating capital on a second referendum. 🙂”
No No No No No No No No No
Is that clear? We didn’t just go through an almightily horrendous defeat in 2015 and claw back a few seats just to get a few scraps from an almightily humiliated May.
No
No
No
No
Is that clear?
And that has nothing to do with what Tim said.
That is me speaking
I agree with that. I would not even offer them confidance and supply. Not untill they return to the centre. I hope we can even make political hay from it.
28-30% of the vote and 80+ MPs would give us the authority to take part in government with enough power to safeguard our agenda – not, if true, 14!! Let’s choose constructive opposition instead of the devil or the deep blue sea scenario.
Plus the Sinn Fein absence may make a majority easier for the Tories…
@Paul Walter
So to clarify, your not overly keen on a coalition then!
If the Exit poll is right (which it probably isn’t) then we are heading for a second election in a few months time
If the exit poll is accurate, are we seeing anti-Tory tactical voting in England and anti-SNP tactical voting in Scotland?
I am not so sure about that, if true this will scare the pants off the tories. It is strange times, I half think the tories will keep May to drink that chalice she is brewing for us all.
If she stays, I cant imagine there will be another. If they do replace her perhaps but still that has a hell of a risk on it for them. Still I would welcome another election in a few months; gives us a chance to improve further!
The exit poll last time had the Tories on 316 and they ended with 331 so I think I’ll go to bed…..
https://twitter.com/LibDemPress/status/872935171414249473
And further to my own comment, be interesting to see what happens in seats where the Tories aren’t a significant factor, such as Bermondsey and Cambridge.
After the 2015 general election the exit poll said Conservatives largest party,but they ended up with an overall majority. Actual results are trickling in, starting with Newcastle on Tyne and Sunderland.
On the exit poll there are two workable two-party coalitions. Con-SNP or Con-Lab.
Both pairings are interesting. Con-Lab have quite extensive overlap, if they could overcome their prejudices they might work well together.
A lot of votes to be counted before any of them pick up the phone to each other, of course!
No coalitions and no deals is a sensible position from Lib Dem HQ. Can get concessions on a vote by vote basis and maintain independence from the other two main parties.
Jen: Neither of those is likely. The most likely scenario if this were the final result would be a minority Tory government, perhaps with tacit Unionist support.
I’m really worried the exit poll is far too optimistic for us. It relies on Caithness, Ross Skye Lochaber, Argyll Bute and Gordon! It does not think we will sweep SW London.
I fear we are getting ahead of ourselves on this thread. The first results look like story majority still a likely outcome sadly.
BBC Scotland saying it looks like a close race between us and the Nats in NE Fife.
Oops, I meant STV – channel hopping at the moment.
No deal with Labour so allowing a Tory win is bad because a) LibDems can’t seriously say Tory policies are better than Labour surely?
b) Lab position re Brexit is more acceptable than Tories No Deal nonsense and finally
c) it would once and for all associate the LibDens, when push comes to shove, as being portrayed as Tory enablers
I hope Electoral Calculus are taking note, then!
First indication the exit poll might be tosh? Emily Maitlis just spoke about ‘recalibrating our forecasts’.
We are in trouble against Labour reportedly losing Leeds NW, Bermondsey, Canbridge, and Sheffield Hallam tight.
Clegg in danger according to the Beeb.
If the exit poll is right, and four of the gains are in Scotland, what is happening elsewhere? All the constituency results so far have been pretty poor.
These conversations tend to overlook how *very* *low* the bar is for a minority government to survive.
Depending on the jurisdiction, the following very ambivalent statement from a third party might(?) still be enough for a minority government to carry on:
“In the foreseeable future we have no intention of supporting a no confidence motion against any government led by Party Red or Party Blue unless there is a clear evidence of wrongdoing, such as corruption.”
No promise of supply, no promise of support for a legislative platform.
The viability of that kind of option becomes an important question if the choice you are presented with is “pick a side or force another election”.
Paul Walter.
Well said.
BBC Scotland quoting unnamed Tories at E Dunbartonshire count as being 100% sure Jo Swinson has won.
What a mess! May will almost certainly resign, the brexit talks will have to be delayed and another general election fairly soon is a certainty. If there is no overall majority Tim could suddenly find everyone wants to be his mate! That is “if” the exit poll is right.
Looks like a Grand Brexit Coalition – Johnson as PM and his Deputy Corbyn!!! Funny though!
I’ve seen other comments online about Labour being confident of toppling Clegg.
Seen various suggestions that turnout may be slightly higher than 2015.
LD results in NE appalling.
The exit poll only sampled 144 locations which will be complicated by the fact we are targeting fewer seats this time. From bieng sad enough to have played around with our find a target seat tool I know some of the predicted gains are not target seats so I strongly suspect it’s based on a sample taken from a we’re performing strongly against the SNP in. Likewise it is possible that our English predictions are partly based on samples from seats we lost last time but are no longer targeting (eg most of our old seats in the southwest) so we could easily do allot better or allot worse than the exit poll suggests
I’m not an expert in these matters, but are we in fact seeing a swing from Labour to Tories in the North (as predicted) and a swing from Tory to Labour in the South (as not predicted)? Or is that too simplistic?
John Pugh predicts Con win in Southport on Sandgrounder Radio
Whoever said it, ye, absolutely no concessions to the Tories. If the exit polls are to be believed, they’ve been rejected – certainly not the 100+ majority some were predicting. Regardless, if we get 14 seats, it’s hardly enough to go confidence and supply anyway. We are better in opposition – as we naturally should be to conservatism!
BBC saying Lamb at risk and Labour confident of toppling Clegg…
Conservatives will need DUP support to rule.
Matt(Bristol)
No what you’re seeing is closer to a form of stasis. The seats are more or less fixed to the point where only a major policy change could unpick them. Really it’s a good argument for PR.
This is where I get to be unpopular.
I joined the Liberal Democrats after the EU referendum because I felt that it was the best party to make the case for my liberal, progressive (and quite frankly anti-Tory) views. However my allegiance was never tribal and once Labour got their act together I (and I suspect many like me) felt very conflicted. Should I stick with the party I joined, or support the one with the clout to win? Should my liberal instincts win over my desire for social justice?
Had I lived in Twickenham or North Norfolk I would have been pounding the streets for the Lib Dems. But I don’t, and most people don’t live in places that will ever turn orange. It may be sad, but it is the truth.
In the end I resigned my party membership and spent this evening canvassing for Labour in Luton South.
Time for a Progressive Alliance?
@Andy Dunstan
Sadly Corbyn not actually a progressive.
Andy Dunstan: “Time for a Progressive Alliance?”
Steve Way: “Sadly Corbyn not actually a progressive.”
What do we mean by “progressive” in this context?
What (if anything) makes Tim Farron a “progressive” politician but not Jeremy Corbyn?
@Steve Way haha I knew someone would say that. And that I’m afraid, is the problem.
Corbyn may not be many Lib Dems’ cup of tea, particularly those from the right of the party.
But I’m sorry, they are a lot more progressive than the Tories. And (perhaps sadly, but realistically) unlike the Lib Dems they have a chance of running the Conservatives close.
And with a Progressive Alliance behind them they could even win.
Clegg looks like he’s going, and maybe Farron.
The election is turning into the revenge of the young graduates – pissed off with tuition fees, house prices, poor job prospects and a hard brexit.
Angry Steve – I think that’s a perceptive comment with where this is going. And although that will be painful for us in the big picture that’s good for the country. The days of pandering to pensioners and assuming they wil out its everyone else are coming to an end.
*assuming they will outvote* typo
BBC are giving a new forecast
Con 322
Lab 261
SNP 32
LD 13
I’m a Lib Dem leave voter and I think Brexit is no longer tenable. For me it was basically a constitutional argument and it looks like the 48% is taking the Tories out, So I think we, leavers, have to demonstrate a bit of humility and maybe go back to the country.
The YouGov model has said 302 and has been right (or low on Labour) all night so far – so I think that BBC forecast is over-calling the Tory seats. YouGov has even been right on the Tory wins in Scotland so far.
@Angry Steve “Clegg looks like he’s going, and maybe Farron.”
I hope that Farron does not lose his seat. I also hope that he does not become the scapegoat if the results are as disappointing for his party as some are predicting.
I believe the Lib Dems underestimated the damage done by his predecessor.
I also believe that Farron has been badly advised – though this is only a hunch as I have no idea really what has happened behind the scenes and to what extent the party’s campaigning style over the last couple of years has been his design.
When Farron became the leader he looked like a breath of fresh air: a decent, genuine and sincere politician with a very different style and background, relatively unsullied by association with coalition, who could rebuild the party’s reputation with the electorate. But he does not seem to have capitalised on that. He has looked more like a continuity leader than I expected, and the party has looked directionless, defined by little other than opposition to Brexit (fuelled by a much trumpeted growth in membership), and apparently unwilling to either “own” or disown its record in Coalition lest it alienate one wing of the party or another.
Jo Swinson is in !!!
Lib Dems 3rd in Southport.
And Sheffield Hallam lost.
Well done Jo.
Congrats Jo Swinson (fingers crossed, but looking safe) bad luck Nick Clegg.
YouGov model seems reasonably spot on. Suggests 313 Tory + Unionists. 325 Labour+SNP+LD.
What was that about Nick Clegg not being toxic?
It is a sad night losing Nick Clegg. He was a passionate and highly articulate politician who made many wrong calls during the coalition. Things could have been so different.
Cable for leader
At least Vince has stormed back
Well done Vince Cable
A fine speech from Nick Clegg after losing Sheff Hallam. I didn’t always agree with him but he is a sad loss to the party and to Parliament. Good to see Vince Cable back in. Jo Swinson must come to the fore now.
@Andy Dunstan
According to the IFS, Corbyn’s manifesto takes £9.1bn from the low paid to fund a programme that mostly benefits the middle class. If so, he’s not as progressive as he claims
https://www.ifs.org.uk/uploads/Table%20for%20income%20tax%20obs%2017%20May.JPG
Let’s wait before knocking Jeremy Corbyn. The Lib Dems underestimated him so let’s not repeat the same mistake so soon. I honestly think that many Lib Dem members voted for Labour via the call for a Progressive Alliance
I explained what was wrong with the LibDem campaign in an earlier message here. Just to say, I have not been able to be involved directly in the campaign due to the election coinciding with the period in the year when in my current job I have to be in Beijing. I did arrange a proxy vote for me …
At least we’ve picked up Bath
Congratulations to Wera Hobhouse.
Well done in Bath. As I said Brexit, and it pains me to an extent, needs a new vote
George Kendall so work with Corbyn or let Tories govern? A straight choice
Looking goo9d for Tim.
Eastbourne!
@Jane Chelliah
I’m not underestimating the tactical cleverness of Jeremy Corbyn’s manifesto, just his sincerity when he attacked the Tories and the moderates in Labour, and accused them of playing political games.
His manifesto involved continuing Tory cuts to welfare. Politically, that was clever, because no one was going to attack him for it, and defending welfare is politically difficult.
But was it principled? Was it progressive?
Ed Davey back in Kingston & Surbiton.
@Dave Orbison
Neither, David. We won’t hold the balance of power, so what Tim said will stand.
No coalition.
But, frankly, if it came to welfare, the Tories and Labour should be forming a coalition!
See https://static.independent.co.uk/s3fs-public/styles/story_medium/public/thumbnails/image/2017/06/03/13/ifs.png
Jamie Stone in Caithness.
Scot nationalism is looking weak.
It would be utter folly to not do a pact with Labour to keep the Tories out this time when the party made a pact in 2010 with Tories to bring them in. LibDem voters who voted tactically will never forgive the party.
Edinburgh west gained from snp
Allegedly four votes between SNP and LibDems in a recount… in NE Fife…
Jane Chelliah
I’m afraid there isn’t the slightest prospect of the Lib Dems being able to “do a pact with Labour to keep the Tories out” – on current projections Labour will be about 50 seats behind the Tories, while the LibDems will have fewer than 15 seats. Meanwhile the Tories + DUP will almost certainly have a majority between them. The LDs can either help to keep the Tories in government or not but that’s the limit of their choices.
Commiserations to Nick, congratulations to Jo !!
May is bound to go !!
We have 3 nail-biters: NE Fife, Ceredigion, Richmond Park
Labour’s vote total projected to be highest since 2001. Two-party vote share highest since (I think) 1970. The political map has certainly been re-written.
Lib Dems should have a leadership election. Tim is a good MP but it just hasn’t worked well. Cable and Swinson are both interesting, but I’d be interested in a third candidate too. I don’t know who, just someone else.
Eddie Sammon 9th Jun ’17 – 4:46am
Eddie, as the Membership Development Officer for the constituency in which you live, please could I advise you that your membership application still hasn’t arrived. Just saying!
We have won OxWAb
It appears the DUP have 10 seats.
“Liberal Democrat Stephen Lloyd has won Eastbourne back from the Conservatives after losing it in the 2015 General Election. He came first with 26,924 votes, while Tory candidate Caroline Ansell, who was the MP, came second with 25,315 votes. The East Sussex constituency was a target seat for the Lib Dems and Brexit played a key role in the campaigns. Ms Ansell had backed Leave in the EU Referendum as did the majority of constituents.”
Well done Stephen Lloyd and his hard working team, all committing to win for this popular MP.
“Everyone in Eastbourne knows someone who has been helped by Stephen Lloyd”.
Liberal Democrats win Bath: Wera Hobhouse 23,436
I fear that all three nail-biters (NE Fife, Ceredigion, Richmond Park) may go against us. That leaves us on 12 seats but around 150 votes away from 15 🙁
SNP hold North east Fife with a majority of 2 from Lib Dem. This compares with a Lib Dem majority of 2 in Winchester in 1997 which was followed by a by-election. Scrutiny should be considered.
Ceredigion liost to plaid
Huge commiserations to Elizabeth Riches in Fife North East – losing to SNP by 2 (TWO!!) votes.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/politics/constituencies/S14000049
To those who don’t bother to vote because they think “my vote doesn’t matter” realises how very wrong they are.
Just got up, just seen the result, OH WHAT A BEAUTIFUL MORNING. A result I dreamt about but thought impossible. Hung Parliament and we have more seats. Wonderful to see I was wrong this time. 1 person voting in North East Fife for the SNP eh. Just shows every vote does count. I am off to my duties with a skip in my step. Surely Brexit must be reconsidered. Hang in ar Richmond Park.
Time for me to start my own political party in the next few months. Left Right “yah boo” adversarial politics is back. A complete mess up of a back to the past result.
Labour’s surge has worked well for us…The DUP, on whom the Tories will rely, are AGAINST a ‘hard Brexit’….
I don’t know what the negotiations will look like but any Exit will look a lot different than May’s dreadful vision…
Plus points more MP’s avoided wipe out. Minus points lost good MPs. Still could be worse could be deadkip.
We have paid the price for obsessing about Brexit. We must drop the second referendum nonsense and join the consensus which clearly now exists for membership of the single market and customs union. Above all, we must talk about the economy which is tanking and for that reason I would support Vince as our new leader. Tim is a good man but all the people I talk to outside lib dem circles do not rate him. Go back to your constituencies and prepare for a second election !
@Robert Wootton
“yah boo” adversarial politics is back
Nah. What happened was a complete rejection of the Public Relations politics that began with Blair’s election in 1994. We kept being told that policies don’t matter and that elections are won and lost on personal approval and reputation for running the economy, etc. Well, Corbyn, in his own clumsy, amateur way, has proved that issues and policies do actually matter to people. If Corbyn had had better judgement than to appoint the likes of Diane Abbott (I’m talking about the justified criticism of her performance, not the vile abuse) to such senior positions then we could well have woken to a Labour majority this morning. Debate is back, and I’m sorry if you don’t like it. May spent the campaign, presumably at the advice of her advisors, hiding from the electorate and refusing to debate. Compare that with Major and his effective soapbox campaign in 1992. She hid from debate with Corbyn whilst personally attacking him and claiming to be strong and stable. A complete failure by the ad-men.
St Ives missed by a whisker by Andrew George:
Cons 22,120
Lib Dem 21,808
Labour 7,298
Most of the close calls have gone against us tonight (with the exception of Farron’s seat thankfully). Even with a tiny swing against the Tories, it might be possible to get 20 seats in an October election…
We have a situation where the parties that support some form of Brexit (cons and labour) increased their number of MPs, and those hard against (us, SNP, greens) collectively lost seats. This wasn’t an anti-Brexit result.
Who knows who will actually be negotiating Brexit, and what consistency of Brexit they be seeking. For us, we should just shut up about it for a while until we see how the dust settles. Being anti-Brexit clearly isn’t a great vote winner overall as long as it only presents the potential threat of being a disaster, rather than actually being one.
My youngest is still at primary school and has already clocked up four prime ministers and helped in two elections and a referendum – if it goes on like this I wonder how many more campaigns/PMs he might clock up by the time he is a teenager.
Targeting by region doesn’t help. We were told to go to Portsmouth South to squeeze the Labour vote(!!) when an hour on the train to a seat in London would have made more sense.
@ Bill le Breton,
I can’t find where you said it now but I seem to remember something like:
“Forget all this nonsense about a hung Parliament…….” 🙂
got that wrong, then.
can i please have a ‘but’ … but i was trying to stop us fussing about it rather than concentrating on campaigning.
@AngrySteve. Yes, debate is back. According to a book I read, New Labour was Margaret Thatcher’s “Greatest Achievement”. But even Corbyn’s Labour party has no policy for eliminating poverty, economic deprivation and to save the NHS that will actually work.
Congratulations to those who won and heartfelt sympathy to those who worked so hard and didn’t make it. I think we need the dust to settle before drawing any lessons or conclusions from last night, and I would be the first to admit that I am gobsmacked as I fully expected a Con majority of 50 or more.
The only immediately obvious conclusion that can be drawn is that the polling organizations that assumed a high turnout in young voters have been vindicated which suggests that social networking has had a very significant impact on the result of this election.
Relief yes at retaining 12 seats, frustration at missing out on 3 more by a handful of votes. However, beyond a clutch of target seats our performance has been abysmal, national vote share falling to 7.4%, and pushed back into 3rd party irrelevance in many places where we used to be strong. Time for a major re-think as to where we are going as a party, and which group of voters we are aiming to attract.
As a centre-left voter, the country need’s both a strong liberal party and a moderate block of labour MPs. While I am relieved at Mays downfall, she is truly appalling in every way, the country is squeezed between the ignorance of the hard brexit tories and the fantasies of Corbyn. But thankfully you survived to fight another day, and I still hope one day for a lab-lib style centre-left government. Just to add that losing Nick Clegg is a real loss to parliament. And don’t give up on Brexit
@Richard Elliott
Couldn’t agree with you more on a national political level.
After 15hrs of letterboxes and doorbells yesterday (pretty much to no avail) there are so many disordered thoughts going through my head at the moment.
A disaster of a campaign by the Tories (that will not happen again).
Pretty nondescript national campaign by ourselves.
Has the Labour bombshell been shown to be a dud and does this liberate parties from tax nerves? Is Corbinism a flash in the pan?
Referendum psychology. Very strange. Both here and in Scotland.
Squeeze v Conviction tactics?
Is UKIP dead and does that give us a better platform next time?
Sleep, Weekend. Then ordering, planning and plotting, again.
May going to the Palace at 12.30 to ask ‘leave’ to form a Government on the understanding that the Democratic Unionists of Northern Ireland will support her minority administration.
Have we called on her to quit yet? It would be a slap in the face to all those candidates and their teams who have worked so bravely over the last in some cases two years and for others who have lost their seats.
Hope I have missed this announcement because surely silence on this is not good enough. We are not afraid.
Surely immediately after May leave Buck House we should announce that our MPs will be calling a vote of no confidence in her minority Government, seeking to trigger the provisions of the FTPA as quickly as possible.
@Ruth Bright
You are quite right about targeting by region. I had a disagreement at HQ with the London Region campaigns manager who was trying to direct us in Harrow to the various London targets, even though St Albans was much closer and more accessible. Of course, that was right at the start of the campaign but he was saying that as London Region campaigns manager he had no responsibility for target seats close to, but outside London. It is these artificial boundaries that the Party creates that diminish the effectiveness of our campaigning.
John Bicknell
However, beyond a clutch of target seats our performance has been abysmal, national vote share falling to 7.4%, and pushed back into 3rd party irrelevance in many places where we used to be strong.
Indeed. Our two latest leaders have run campaigns that have thrown away what used to be a core part of our vote – the working class of the south – and gained nothing whatsoever to replace it.
@ Robert Wooton,
“But even Corbyn’s Labour party has no policy for eliminating poverty, economic deprivation and to save the NHS that will actually work.”
They might not have it quite right but they are on the right track. Saving the NHS is simply a matter of using the available resources in the economy to best advantage. Keynes wrote a pamphlet in 1940 called “How to pay for the war”. He was aware that the war effort was limited by the availability of soldiers, factories, fuel, workers, and natural resources. At the time “we just haven’t got the money” wasn’t an option. It wasn’t a valid argument.
Neither is it now. The problem just needs a little lateral thought.
Good news! Tim has at last said at 3pm today that May should go!
Now we need to announce that we shall seek to table a vote of confidence in the Government of the Tories and the DUP (who are against Brexit!). That we shall be using the wording in the Fixed Term Parliament Act.
We need to run this lot ragged. There need to be divisions and votes every day on every subject, til she goes. We must be daring Labour not to join us in this.
We should NOT wait for the TDUPs to pick a time for the election of its choosing (after it has with a single figure majority repealed the FTPA.
We have to act like we are a Party of 212.
If May said before the election that we were always frustrating her on Brexit, we need in this ‘stump’ of a Parliament to frustrate her on everything, everyday until they capitulate.
New Budget? Not a hope – bog them down in the lobbies, drive their whips mad, now, until she goes, oppose, oppose, oppose.
@Bill le Breton
“… the DUP (who are against Brexit!).”
Maybe just a typo (?) but DUP campaigned strongly for Brexit, including channeling money to the Leave campaign. Presumably you meant that they are against a *hard* Brexit, which is what Arlene Foster has said today. That could become a very significant sticking point: the Tories could be forced to negotiate a soft Brexit (single market and customs union) if they have to get the final deal through parliament.
Indeed, thank you Paul. I must owe you a pint.
It is half past six on Friday evening and they are still counting the votes in Kensington.
Is it that much closer than the majority of two which was discerned last night in Fife North East?
the Tories could be forced to negotiate a soft Brexit (single market and customs union) if they have to get the final deal through parliament.
I seem to remember the Remainer argument that this kind of ‘Norway’ solution would be the worst of all options. We’d have to pay for access (essentially pay for the right of EU countries to sell us lots of stuff) and have no say in the rules of the market.
In any case, we do have to recognise that, like it or not, net immigration was a big factor in the Brexit process. It’s just not going to be politically possible for any Tory government to sign off on any deal that required borders to be kept fully open.
@ Ruth Bight
“Targeting by region doesn’t help. We were told to go to Portsmouth South to squeeze the Labour vote(!!) when an hour on the train to a seat in London would have made more sense.”
@ Laurence Cox
“You are quite right about targeting by region. … London Region campaigns manager who was trying to direct us in Harrow to the various London targets, even though St Albans was much closer and more accessible. … he was saying that as London Region campaigns manager he had no responsibility for target seats close to, but outside London. It is these artificial boundaries that the Party creates that diminish the effectiveness of our campaigning.”
Are you not liberals? Are we Conservatives to be told what to do? Of course the regions should have clear target seats in their region and be encouraging people and non-target candidates to lead teams to those targets, but we are not conformists who do what they are told, we make our own decisions. Unless you are a candidate, you should just make your own decision which target seat you should go to no matter which region it is in.
@ Bill le Breton
“We need to run this lot ragged. There need to be divisions and votes every day on every subject, til she goes.
“New Budget? Not a hope – bog them down in the lobbies, drive their whips mad, now, until she goes ….”
This is not going to happen. I expect there will be advice that we should avoid an early general election, because we have no money and it might lead to Jeremy Corbyn becoming PM.
The only people who want elections are political activists and election enthusiasts. The public are tired of it, not to mention the cost of it all. Calm down and let things settle for a while. Look what good an early election did for Mrs May. Even Liberal Democrats must be tired of being asked to finance another campaign. Would Tim Farron retain his seat in another election ? Would the newly elected Liberal Democrat MPs remain if they were seen to provoke another election ? Past experience does not suggest they would.
The party needs time to decide what it is for and whether it has any future in the two party system. Fifty years of effort in reviving it to be the principal opponent of the Conservatives has resulted in electing 12 MPs and a resurgent Labour Party.
@ nvelope2003
“The party needs time to decide what it is for and whether it has any future in the two party system.”
We don’t need any time to know that we have to continue as a party. There is no guarantee that this election with 82.4% of voters voting for the two big parties is a return to two party politics. In 1970 this figure was 89.5% but at the next election (Feb. 1974) it had fallen to 75.1%. We know what we are for – a liberal society, where people are free, and their freedom is not held back by the power of others, conformity, lack of education or lack of money.
The first point to make is that we did not achieve our objectives in this election. I think, at the outset of the campaign, we thought we would be able to hoover up much of the Remain vote and that the minimum seats we would have would be between 25 and 30. Then we cut this assessment towards the end of the campaign to doubling our existing 9 seats. Therefore, having just 12 seats on a smaller share of the vote is not a harbinger of a Lib Dem resurgence.
What is important now is to encourage practical co-operation and co-ordination across oppositions parties, both inside Parliament and externally. In the first instance, Tim should take the initiative to suggest that there should be a monthly, informal meeting of the MPs of the Lib Dems, SNP, Greens and Plaid Cymru to identify common issues and proposed actions. That would mean creating a strategic bloc of 51 MPs who commit themselves to working together. Labour will now be debating whether the two party system will be better for them and so would presumably not be prepared, at this stage, to participate. What do people think? How can we engender joint working in opposition?
Michael BG – I did ignore the lousy advice to go to Portsmouth South ta very much x . I have, however, been a member for 31 years and therefore knew the advice was lousy. A new member would have not have known.