One of the biggest surprises of this week was Brexiteer Tory commentator Tim Montgmerie’s criticism of May for her Downing Street statement.
This is irresponsible from Theresa May. Naked electioneering, not based in fact and only likely to make #Brexit negotiations trickier https://t.co/jnSXzrMf4O
— Tim Montgomerie ن (@montie) May 3, 2017
In the Sunday Times (£), today, Sky’s Adam Boulton says we could be in for a bumpy ride because of the so-called strong and stable leadership:
Her ruthlessness certainly fulfils the first part of her “strong and stable” mantra. But her ad hoc style, exploiting circumstances over which she has no control, such as the Brexit vote or insults from Brussels, suggests the UK is in for a bumpy ride rather than stability.
On the other side of the political divide, the Observer lays out the challenges for May if she does win her predicted landslide:
Forget strong and stable. May could finally be beginning to grasp how weak her Brexit negotiating position really is. If she is not anxious, she certainly should be. Her government lacks a clear negotiating stance. She lacks experienced, able colleagues. She lacks civil service strength in depth. And given the bumblings of David Davis, her government could soon lack a lead negotiator, too. How much longer can May ignore multiple warnings about the impossibility of cherry-picking? Her Europe à la carte is becoming a Europe prix fixe. How much longer before she heeds Angela Merkel’s blunt comments about delusional thinking, particularly the fatuous idea that the single market and customs union will be replicated by some improbably generous trade deal? Doubts are certainly creeping in. Boris Johnson, hedging against failure, continues to suggest that crashing out of the EU with no deal at all would not be a disaster.
A disaster it most certainly would be. But almost a year on, the hard Brexiters with May’s ear still don’t get it. The EU does not need to play dirty. European tails are up, with the eurozone economy expanding and the populist tide apparently receding. The EU already has the upper hand, both in terms of the too-tight article 50 timetable and the opening agenda, which it has dictated. Britain is a supplicant. It is divided. And on crucial issues, it does not seem to know what it wants.
In contrast, the 27 remaining members to the EU appear united. They are unimpressed by simplistic Tory and Ukip arguments about how Britain’s appetite for German car imports and French wine will somehow persuade the EU to abandon fundamental principles of European unity, human rights and treaty law. They want a deal that minimises the damage and protects their interests. This is not bullying – it is the inescapable reality of a deeply unequal power relationship.
It’s fairly well in tune with the Liberal Democrat analysis. We have to wait another four weeks for their verdict on who to back in the election.
The Observer’s commentary is, perhaps, inevitable. What is surprising is that Conservative commentators are starting to stick their heads above the parapet.
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23 Comments
Yet still, it seems, for most Brexiters the problems are abstract and hypothetical. I fear that only tangible hurt and economic damage will register for them; even then it is likely that the cause of the hardship will be denied.
I think May’s popularity largely depends on the fact that she has done very little as PM, but hard and disagreeable decisions are round the corner. The economy is not so healthy and government spending has to be paid for. Clearly an election now enables her to implement unpopular decisions and give more time for the electorate to get used to them, however the prospects for 2022 out of the Singe Market do not look good.
Can you still describe Tim Montomerie as a Tory? Well yes but he is a long long way from the mainstream – which tells you a lot in itself
Newshound…Clutching at straws? The message, even though meaningless (remember, “Brexit means Brexit”) seems to resonate ‘on the doorstep’….
Sadly such phrases as “Bloody Awkward”, “Coalition of Chaos” and “Strong and Stable” have taken the place of reasoned policies…May will not take part in any TV debate where her lack of policies will surface instead she will hammer home a soundbite strategy….
Listening to voters ( in what were once Labour heartlands), responding to questions, I seriously believe that a large section of the nation have forgotten what the Tories actually believe/do…Somehow they have become brainwashed into believing a Tory government will ever do anything for them despite history and facts telling them otherwise.
Kramer’s comments on the Labour Tax pledge do not make sense:
“Labour’s so-called tax pledges aren’t worth the paper they’re written on, given their inability to form a proper opposition, let alone a government.”
Just attacking Labour’s ability to form an opposition is not going to bring us any votes.
The response to Kramer is with 9 MPs we cannot form a government either.
We should link Labour’s pledge to raise money for NHS with ours, and point out that ours are specific as to the amount and where it will come from. The advantage of Labour making this pledge, following ours, is that it will help drag the debate back to the NHS, which is a danger area for May.
We can expect more of this as both ourselves and Labour make proposals to solve some other issues (Education, Housing, Environment). Vacuous comments about Labour’s ability to oppose are worthless, comments should be on policy.
We need the policy debate to show the weakness of May’s position. Stick to policy and you could get tactical voting between the opposition parties.
LDV could do with upping its game and becoming more balanced on this one issue and so could our otherwise excellent leader, a quality it also shares with this excellent site.
Tim Mongomerie is an ex Tory.
Adam Boulton, is a very objective broadcaster married to one of the stalwarts of New Labour, and he is no Tory, so to find the words , other side of the divide , from the Guardian does not work, especially with regard to Boulton.
Sky needs to be saved from the constant attempts to control it by Murdoch, precisely due to it being, excellent, not the right wing venture some who never watch it think it is.It is fairer to us as a party than the BBC sometimes.
And could we stop pretending the 27 are united just because the bloated and rather dubious higherarchy of the EU say it is.
Do Liberal Democrats not believe in individuals and consultation?!
Macron is a realist. The real truth is there is all to play for in this continent.
LDV, please can you get real on the EU, or see things through glasses bought from Spec savers , or any high street retailer , not Rose Tinted LTD ?!
see below a quite enlightening follow-up article in today’s Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung:
http://www.faz.net/aktuell/brexit/theresa-may-charges-into-battle-15004077.html?printPagedArticle=true#pageIndex_2
Nr. 10 still does not understand the issues, negotiators, and EU-side dynamics.
Just add the scathing editorial & article in The Economist this weekend about May being deliberately vague about anything but her old slogan “Brexit is HARD Brexit”, and her exercising (inside Number 10) Thatchers slinging about of her handbag in Brussels corridors. The Economist doesn’t think that a good strategy, also looking forward to the negotiating of a EU-UK trade deal afterwards.
And the Economist echoes Tim’s point about her walking through deserted factories and streets, and the LibDems minggling with ordinary voters and factory workers. And Tims point that Britons deserve to know what Brexit deal May is aiming for, before the final parliamentary vote on it. John (Baron) Kerr, the top British diplomat & article 50 expert, concurs on that: May is cherry-picking instead of seeing (let alone: giving) the full picture, the Economist reports.
We Dutch may be “worried”; but if we give an inch to May unilaterally, our trade and policy positions inside the EU (which is were we remain) weakens. We’re much more dependent on the EU than on the UK.
Thank you Arnold:
Everyone should read the FAZ article (provided in English). It makes salutary reading and reveals the extent to which May is apparently willing to rile other member states.
Reading the article really makes it seem that the UK may end up with no deal. Moreover, it is clear that any post Brexit reaccommodation with the EU (a trade agreement, the Single Market or back in the EU) is likely to be laborious and humiliating, but very much self inflicted.
Lorenzo it’s you who need to get real on the EU. Please understand that unanimity is always hard to achieve but the 27 have done it on their approach to Brexit. Any agreement with the UK will require unanimity so whether Macron is practical or not will make no difference. EU rules mean we can’t deal with individual countries. This is what our useless Brexit government have failed to grasp and apparently you as well. We have to make any deal with all 27 countries as the EU and their 27 governments have to agree and the EU Parliament too. All that by April 2019. So please stop posting nonsense and get out and campaign for the Lib Dems. It’s the only way to stop disaster.
Mick Taylor
I do not think your resorting to insults is a correct response to a tone with humour , which is what I am doing above and regularly.
I refer to us not yet knowing yet what the stance is of the 27 countries as they are not yet included in the talks. We cannot presume Juncker speaks for them, as we read , he riled Merkel with the briefing .
It is patronising to those countries to presume to speak for them now, as it is your saying what you do to me, who is a committed member of this party who makes regular contributions seeking and putting and usually getting , though not on occasions such as this, a balanced approach.
You are a regular critic when you are distanced from a stance , so pot, kettle, black ?!
I think Martin and Expat have described the current situation quite well. The half of the nation who wished this impending disaster upon us are now in complete denial about both the difficulties our PM is going to encounter during negotiations and the long term damage we face. And I fear they will continue to be in denial. When the brown stuff does hit the fan they will blame elites, the left wing media (?), us, Tim Montgomery, and anyone else who comes to hand for failing to support the government.
We seem to be waiting for the public to have a Road to Damascus experience. It will be along wait.
The EU normally unites behind whatever Mrs Merkel decides, which is why Juncker was on the phone to her moments after leaving the dinner with Mrs May. Juncker knows who his real boss is. Barnier’s just another failed politician, if Merkel doesn’t like the way he’s doing his job he won’t have it long. The EU and UK parliaments will make some noise, the smaller EU countries will be made to feel important, but in the end it will be May, Merkel and perhaps one or two others who decide the outcome.
@malc,
you are neither right nor current; ever heard about Emmanuel Macron?
Ms May’s timing was right: the Remain-case needs more time to have electoral impact. But it can be sold more punchily: it is not enough to label Brexit in an abstract fashion as hard and disastrous; Leavers are immune to this. Nick Clegg has all the right arguments, but needs to condense them to one sentence: Brexit will destroy UK manufacturing, and that means the minimum wage or welfare for everybody without higher education.
I do not believe that contributing interchangeable statements about hospitals and schools to the election debate will cut through and add to the LibDem’s distinctiveness. Becoming harder Remain might.
Lorenzo Cherin to Dr Mick Taylor : “I do not think your resorting to insults is a correct response to a tone with humour , which is what I am doing above and regularly”
Well, well….. I’m afraid your comment about Tim Farron’s “hysterical attacks on Teresa May” is not particularly humorous – and not a million miles from what could be described as an insult.
But then, like Mick (who I mostly, but not always, agree with), I’m an old fashioned Liberal who’s been in the party a long time, know a bit about Liberal policy from long experience – and Tim very well from personal experience in Westmorland (where I was once Leader of the Liberal Group on SLDC).
Mick got it right this time.
To paraphrase Benjamin Franklin
“”Experience keeps a dear school, but Brexiteers will learn in no other”
and yes they will try to play shoot the messenger, but that won’t pay the bills.
David Raw
You , unlike , Mick , always insult or criticise on the side. It is a style I dislike, as with the continuous repeating of your years in the party, do you want a gold watch ?
I praise Tim Farron more times on this site in weeks than you do ever to anyone on here.
I challenge you to read my comments on him , words you would not use to anyone , you ever criticised, because everything is black and white , left and right , orange book or Bevanite to you.
I like to use humour when it appropriate. .Above , an example. I do not think it even logical to listen to a lesson from you on balanced appreciation of a leader when you have utilised every chance to brow beat the orange bookers as you call them , and , in personal comments beyond the analytical, our former leader and deputy pm.
My liking and respect for Tim Farron is on record in very many , posts.
I can say the rare thing in criticism because the country I love is a free one, and the party I am a member of is too!
Let’s keep it classy guys.
Regarding our EU policy it is way to late to change it now. The fact that we are known as the remain party is good IMO as it does give us a USP and will work very well in some seats. Personally I think we have the policy about right. I would have liked to hear a little more in defense of remainers from the party, from labour and from the media. After the vote I likely could have been won over by a Norway deal; months of being told to shut up and obey by brexiteers has made me a fanatical remainer.
I hope we can quickly get our manifesto out now and offer more than this to voters. I feel if we can win on a few other areas then it will only help.
Finally I really really hope we remember the basic rule of “its the economy stupid”. Labour are still not trusted on this and I feel we could with effort in the time left win the argument here. We are trillions in debt and may is about to burn our trade away.
A little confused: is this a general election in which we choose members of Parliament and from that a government, or another vote on EU membership?
I think we are being mesmerised by talk of Brexit and allowing all other issues to be swept under the carpet – very convenient for the Tories.
WAKE UP BRITAIN!
It is quite interesting to observe the obsession which many quite ordinary and not apparently wealthy people have about leaving the EU. Only this morning a group of men were saying that Brexit was the most important issue in their lives and yet they did not seem to be people who would be affected in material terms, except adversely. If the ruling elite could get people to risk their lives for something which did not really concern them much, then it was easy to get them to vote for Brexit as the damage would only be material and not mortal. No one seemed to be in the least interested in the idea that there had been peace in Western Europe for 72 years and people were more prosperous than they were before. It was all about sovereignty – something which had gone for Britain with the end of the Second World War and which could only be restored by North Korean style policies now. It is quite extraoridinary how people can believe such things but millions do. At least they have a small chance of winning the lottery if they buy a ticket. The whole country is to be turned upside down for this fantasy. I hope the vicar’s daughter will be brought down by this absurd general election but the chances are remote as this cavalcade of twaddle and misrepresentation goes on and on ignoring every warning of the precipice ahead. The Conservatives really are a bad lot but nothing seems to get in their way. It is the stuff of nightmares. Thank God for Emmanuel Macron. At least the French have not been taken in by this madness.
nvelope2003
” At least the French have not been taken in by this madness.”
Over ten million French people voted for the national front and many more millions have chosen either not to vote for Marcon or abstain. France is a far more divided than the UK and far more racist. Most of europe would give their right arm to have as moderate political parties as the UK.
If Theresa May and David Davis get a larger majority in the Commons they will get more time to negotiate, which they may need for transitional arrangements. Otherwise they must think about the probably unpublished lobbying they must be getting. A larger majority might enable them to face down rebellions in the Tory party.
malc: Yes but about 21 million voted for Macron, about 4 million cast blank ballots on the second round because there was no Socialist to vote for and Macron was expected to beat Marine Le Pen and they did not like him. 25% abstained from voting on the second round, about 3% more than in the first round, probably for the same reason as those who cast blank ballots or because they thought the result was a foregone conclusion. There has always been about 20% who do not vote – probably because they are not interested or are unable to do so for various reasons.
Most of Europe have political parties that represent different opinions. The Conservatives here are quite right wing and we do not have as strong an extreme right but then this is moderate old Britain where everyone tries to be polite and no one dares to say what they really think – or so we are told !
The French did not vote to leave the EU
@Richard Underhill “If Theresa May and David Davis get a larger majority in the Commons they will get more time to negotiate, which they may need for transitional arrangements.”
Don’t quite see your logic. May and Davis if they win the election, regardless of the size of the majority, gain 2 years post-Brexit deal before they have to face the UK electorate, so gain time for transitional arrangements that may not please hardcore Bexiteer’s. However, they still have to complete negotiation of “the Brexit deal” including the transitional arrangements by March 2019, unless the EU agree’s otherwise.