When set against the backdrop of our worst performance in a National Assembly election, Kirsty Williams’ elevation to the Welsh Cabinet is nothing short of remarkable. It is no exaggeration to say that she is one of the most powerful Assembly Members in the Senedd Chamber; she may be a lone Welsh Lib Dem voice, but the power to make or break the Welsh Government is hers.
With Kirsty’s support the Welsh Government can command 29 votes, the same as the opposition (less the presiding officer and deputy). A tied no confidence vote results in the presiding officer voting in favour of the status quo. Simply put, Labour’s First Minister Carwyn Jones loses his insurance policy if he doesn’t keep Kirsty onside.
The Welsh Party overwhelmingly endorsed the agreement at a special conference by more than 4 to 1. It is a huge, huge gamble, but it has nothing left to lose. With a Cabinet post comes profile, coverage and exposure that a sole backbench Lib Dem would never have. If you think the Party struggles to get coverage at the UK level, our Welsh coverage is next to nil outside of an election. Frankly, it gives the Welsh Liberal Democrats relevance in Welsh Politics when we should, according to our vote share, be irrelevant.
Without an Assembly group from which to take counsel, or to hold her to account, it also places Kirsty in a very powerful position in her relationship with the Party. With the Party’s endorsement under her belt, she can effectively operate as an independent and take decisions as she sees fit. So what measures will she be judged against, and who will hold her to account?
The most obvious measure will be the extent to which the specific proposals within the deal reached with Welsh Labour are delivered (or not). Above that, the number of Welsh Liberal Democrat Education policies that get implemented will be a critical barometer of success or failure. It is absolutely essential that Kirsty ‘owns’ the education portfolio, and if there isn’t a strong Lib Dem flavour to it then Kirsty’s foray into the Welsh Cabinet will be regarded as a failure.
Above all, she will be judged on her ability to handle the politics of the situation. This is a less tangible measure, but will inevitably include the extent to which Welsh Lib Dem achievements in Government are recognised as such, and the extent to which our identity as a political party is maintained. The latter will be very difficult given that our current electoral fortunes can be attributed to not offering a clear identity to the electorate in the first place. Kirsty must frame Welsh Lib Dem priorities as such whether she is speaking with a Government voice or not.
The way in which she handles the recommendations of the Diamond Review into Higher Education funding will be key. Diamond is likely to recommend an end to free tuition for Welsh students in favour of an up-front maintenance grant and extra money for Welsh universities. Whilst it chimes with Welsh Party policy, I hardly need point out the banana skin that this poses to a Lib Dem politician.
Being distinctive will be helped by having a Leader outside of the Senedd bubble who can take more of a Party line, and in Mark Williams she will be able to find plenty of sensible advice. Kirsty will be partly accountable to him, and I suspect the Welsh Executive, too.
It is to those Welsh Lib Dem activists and campaigners who supported the deal to whom she should feel the most accountable. We must maintain our role as critical friends. We should avoid blindly following Kirsty because we don’t want to upset the apple cart, and dissenting voices need to be listened to, not vilified. This was a significant failing of the Westminster Coalition. The unfortunate decimation of AMs, support staff and advisers should mean that the grass roots is given a stronger and louder voice. The extent to which that happens may be the most important measure of them all.
* Energlyn Churchill is a pseudonym. He is a Welsh Liberal Democrat. He is active in his local party and serves on a Welsh Party committee. He blogs at Towards Gunfire.
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11 Comments
Decimation was a 10% cull of mutinous soldiers in the Roman Empire (as in decimal).
John Stuart Mill was a lonely voice in the House of Commons in favour of votes for women, but remains influential today.
Disappointing that she see’s fit to prop up the Labour Govt. I’m sure the people of Brecon and Radnor didn’t vote for a Labour Assembly.
“The unfortunate decimation of AMs, support staff and advisers should mean that the grass roots is given a stronger and louder voice.”
Why? Everyone thinks that Kirsty Williams was a first class leader, but still the Lib Dems kept getting hammered in Wales. Perhaps the “grass roots” are the problem and they are just not very good.
hmmn. first of all, agree that ‘decimation’ sounds more dramatically disastrous than it was (although admittedly not to the one in ten mutinous legionnaries who were selected by lot to be beaten to death by their errant colleagues) . However, in May our Assembly ranks were reduced by 80%. Worse, some excellent LD AMs were replaced by Neil Hamilton’s kippers … to the overall detriment.
Kirsty was an excellent leader and the grassroots hard-working – the problem
in Wales is finding relevance when the shadow of the great fees debacle still looms unfairly heavily.
In terms of realpolitik, as a single member Kirsty would struggle to be seen and heard, no backers for
motions, and no group even. This way she is the UK’s most senior ranked LD and in a great position to make a real difference to schools and universities. There are some landmines for her to avoid – Labour’s meddling has damaged the universities seriously, Labour’s cowardice has seen difficult but inevitable decisions over HE fees now land on Kirsty’s desk, and Labour’s complacency has seen Welsh schools standards
plummet.
Kirsty will know all of this, and it is to her credit that she has taken it on and so will keep the party in the local news. it might also lance some of the poison from plaid and labour about the uk rosegarden
coalition, we’ll see …
Malc, your damning comments about the grass roots are way off the mark. There are several reasons as to why the Welsh Lib Dems were hammered, but they are more to do with National strategy, resource allocation and lack of a clear narrative as to what the party is for, and what Liberalism is about. They are mistakes for which the various committees involved will be held to account when they are up for re-election in the autumn.
I will be expanding on this in an article for another publication, but that is for next month.
One correction: it is incorrect to state that Welsh students enjoy free tuition. They have subsidised tuition and pay a little under £4,000 a year for the privilege.
This is important as if Kirsty implements Welsh Lib Dem policy and switches the tuition fee grant so as to provide a living costs grant instead she will NOT be introducing tuition fees in Wales as some mistakenly think, she will be asking Welsh students to pay the full amount (deferred by way of loan as in England) in return for help with paying their way through higher education.
Thanks, Peter. I’ve been educated, so to speak.
Testing and the exams system is one of the key issues in Education at the moment; so it will be interesting to see how Kirsty tackles that. Related to this is how to raise standards of achievement for those who are underperforming in schools; this is about the teaching and learning environment within schools and the social and financial circumstances of pupils outside school. These are among the issues that should concern us all, but in a position of government, under current financial constraints we as a party need to work with Kirsty to find practical solutions that will impact education policy in England too.
Outside of Labour’s strongholds in the South and North east of Wales it is not unknown in local government for a capable, experienced lone Liberal Democrat Councillor to be appointed to the Cabinet. As we have found in Denbighshire our lone councillor and Cabinet lead member for Social Services needs support rather than being held to account. What is unique with Kirsty’s appointment that it is a Labour Cabinet. This maybe the start of a new form of politics or it could just be a labour saving device.
The single biggest lesson of the UK coalition 2010-15 is that policy ‘wins and losses’ don’t matter a damn to voters: what’s much more important is the optics. From day 1, Clegg & Co got totally sucked into the Whitehall machine and spent all their time in back-rooms trying to secure marginal policy wins that were 100% right and Liberal, BUT they forgot that the country only cares about what it sees on telly. KW has to get the word LIBERAL tattoo-ed to her forehead, and wear a bright yellow T-shirt every single day, and she must not call Labour AMs friends or be seen smiling and chummy with them. Her whole ethos must be ‘I’m working with these people for the good of Wales, but only under duress. Don’t think for a moment that I am enjoying it or that I regard them as friends. I’m a Liberal, they are Labour.’ Oh, and incidentally she also has to work even harder as local AM in B&R than before. I wish her well. If she gets it wrong the party in Wales really is screwed.
TonyH 31st May ’16 – 9:48am…….The single biggest lesson of the UK coalition 2010-15 is that policy ‘wins and losses’ don’t matter a damn to voters: what’s much more important is the optics. From day 1, Clegg & Co got totally sucked into the Whitehall machine and spent all their time in back-rooms trying to secure marginal policy wins that were 100% right and Liberal, BUT they forgot that the country only cares about what it sees on telly……
What the country ACTUALLY saw was Clegg/Alexander nodding along to every announcement made from the HoC front bench…Alexander spent more time in front of the media applauding George Osborne’s actions than did GO…..
Please stop rewriting history