In the exit polls, 73% of American 18- to 29-year-olds backed Democrats. Not a freak result but rather confirmation of an emerging global pattern – after nearly two years of well-organised student protests, Serbia’s Student List took 140 of 250 seats in October and almost two-thirds of Hungary’s under-30s backed the winning party, Tisza, in pre-election polling, whilst in Brazil, a self-organised ‘Lula’s army’ of young voters helped the 80-year-old incumbent to a come-from-behind win. India’s Cockroach Janta Party, named after a Chief Justice’s jibe at activist unemployed youth, has drawn millions of young Indian followers online, helped force out the education minister, now backs calls for the Chief Election Commissioner to resign and is fast emerging as the main potential pressure group cum potential political force against PM Modi, echoing similar youth-driven upheavals in Nepal (where an ex-rapper is now PM) and in Bangladesh.

The evidence of the cost of Brexit is now clear: the NBER estimates Brexit cut UK GDP by 6–8% by 2025, as well as productivity and employment (each 3–4%), on top of the loss of youth and student exchanges. Closer trade and economic ties (if not full convergence & alignment in the jargon) would reverse the picture – lift growth, investment and employment, and in turn ease public finances.

PM Burnham recognises this and that public opinion has shifted, and has left open the fight in the next election over rejoining/Customs Union with the EU.

The Lib Dems can catalyse this shift and differentiate ourselves from Labour (and the Greens on fiscal honesty) by tying into strong EU support among young people. More in Common finds 60% of 18- to 28-year-olds would vote to rejoin, against 9% who would stay out. Ipsos has 68% of 18- to 34-year-olds backing rejoining. Interestingly, ECFR finds 66% of voters, including 45% of Leave voters, would accept free movement. The bill now in the Lords would add 16- and 17-year-olds to the electorate (akin to 3–4% of the enlarged electorate) – a block one would expect to further support a pro-EU, pro-growth and pro-employment shift.

The global youth-driven election results offer four lessons.

1. Focus on the grievance. The key concern in the US midterms was “affordability”; we call it the cost of living. Ipsos’s 16- to 18-year-old focus groups worried about rising costs, scarce jobs and AI. With 13% of 16- to 24-year-olds not in education, employment or training, we should emphasise the growth and employability gains from re-accession.
2. Differentiate from Labour: name the destination and outline a roadmap. Our long-term goal is membership, but our public offer stops at the single market and a customs union; the Greens say rejoining outright but their numbers are dodgy. Ed Davey’s caution about winning the argument first is sound, because support is softer than rejoiners admit: Opinium found only 36% saying the UK should rejoin when closer ties were offered as an alternative, and YouGov finds the public net opposed without our old opt-outs. But movements win on clarity and particularly with Gen Z. Let’s put dates and stages on the roadmap: customs union and single market first, then full membership (and questions about the pound) put to the people once the argument is won.
3. Make Labour’s summit a test. Mr Burnham wants to seal a youth mobility deal at the 20 November Brussels summit, though numbers and tuition fees remain unsettled. Erasmus+ returns in January, but only 2027 is agreed. We should demand a permanent commitment.
4. Show the fiscal working. Our pledge to fund tax cuts from the “dividends of growth” is the boldest claim we make. The OBR’s 4% productivity hit gives it a base, but the OBR assumes that damage builds over 15 years, so the gains from repair are unlikely to be instant. Young voters will inherit the bill. Let’s publish the timing and the numbers as part of our fiscal honesty and to differentiate us from the wishy-washy fiscal numbers from the Greens.

* Dr Rupinder Singh advises governments and multilateral organisations on public finance, budget support and aid systems — a career spanning 80 countries from the Baltics, Ukraine and the former Soviet Union to Sub-Saharan Africa and Asia. His clients have included the World Bank, EBRD, Asian Development Bank, Agence Française de Développement, OECD, UNDP and European Union.