In just under a year, Wales will go to the polls to vote in the Senedd elections.
These elections will determine the composition of the new 96-member Senedd, with polls currently indicating either a Labour minority government (Survation and Nation Cymru) or a Plaid Cymru minority government (YouGov). Regardless of which party becomes the senior partner in government, every poll positions Reform just single digits away from forming a minority government themselves. Survation and Nation Cymru place them joint-second with Plaid, while YouGov ranks them outright second, only 5% behind Plaid; the party’s prospects appear promising.
Each poll also suggests that the Welsh Liberal Democrats will secure only 4-7% of the overall vote, indicating a significantly weakened position.
With the rise of Reform, it would be easy to argue that the Welsh Lib Dems should “play the Reform game,” as some within the Labour Party have advocated for their own party’s future. While this position might seem alluring to some, the notion of embracing xenophobic populism turns my stomach. I regard myself as a liberal internationalist, a progressive who supports the spread of human rights globally, and holds the belief that if you seek a better life for yourself and your family, and you’re willing to work hard and contribute to society, then you’re more than welcome in the UK; THAT is why I am a member of the Liberal Democrats.
So, what should the Welsh Liberal Democrats do if we want to retain any standing in the Senedd? The answer lies in embracing the Welsh within the Welsh Liberal Democrats.
We are a federalist-supporting party that never discusses federalism. We allow Labour, the Conservatives, and Reform to push their union-supporting agendas, while Plaid promotes its independence-supporting agenda. But we are never vocal on the alternative, federalism. We need to clarify what federalism is, how it will benefit Wales and the UK, and how it can move towards a confederation, thereby widening the tent to welcome both unionists and independence supporters.
We must not be afraid to acknowledge that we want the best for Wales. We can do so while embracing our liberalism, not having to accept the nationalism of Plaid and Reform, nor the militant unionism of Labour and the Conservatives.
* Jack Meredith is a Welsh Liberal Democrat member. He is the spokesperson for Centre Think Tank on Social Security.
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8 Comments
If I were voting in Wales I’d be thinking ‘what’s the point?’ and ‘how many layers of Govt do we need’?
In addition to all the local layers of govt: Parish councils, Town Councils, County councils, and City/Metro councils Welsh voters have a devolved National Govt to support. Then of course they have the Westminster govt on top of it all. When we were in the EU they had the European Parliament on top of all that too!
If anyone has a need to contact their local political representative I very much doubt they really know which one they should contact and how areas of responsibility are demarcated.
If they don’t know this how does any party know how to campaign?
In response to Peter Martin:
Speaking as someone who lives and votes in Wales, I’d be delighted to explain how the system works and who to contact for specific information.
For local matters relating specifically to your village, it would be the parish. For a town, the town council. For the borough, the county council. For any legislation devolved in Wales, it would be the Senedd. For anything beyond that, it would be the UK.
We’re not as foolish as you believe that we wouldn’t know “which one [to] contact and how areas of responsibility are demarcated”.
I’m unsure if you planned to come across as insulting to the intelligence or common sense of Welsh people, but rest assured, we know how to vote, we know how to raise issues, and Welsh political parties know how to canvas.
If the same could be said for England’s political system, there wouldn’t be the fear of a national Reform government entering power in 2029, I’m sure.
@Jack
I’m not saying the Welsh are any different to anyone else in their knowledge of the overall workings of government. Except it’s more difficult for Welsh, Scottish and Northern Irish voters because there is an additional layer of government to cope with.
Ask any MP and they’ll tell you that a high percentage of their correspondence, such as on bin collections or the behaviour of rowdy youngsters, should really be directed to their local councillor or some other official. It’s going to be the even more so in Wales. Welsh MPs will no doubt be asked about issues connected with hospital care and education even though it, and the Welsh NHS, are the devolved responsibilities of the Senedd.
It’s nothing to do with ‘foolishness’ or lack of IQ. Most people aren’t avid students of our system of governance and have better things to do with their time.
You last sentence is rather elitist. Reform is making headway in Wales just like everywhere else. Partly this is a consequence of the working classes being lectured on the way they should vote generally by those who are perceived to be the ‘new establishment’. Mainly Labour and the Lib Dems. The older establishment being represented by the Tory Party.
The mood is they have had enough and don’t want any of them. It’s a pity there’s no serious anti-establishment challenge to Reform.
@Peter Martin Dismissing the Senedd, Holyrood and Stormont as merely “additional layers of government” is an alarmingly Anglocentric perspective, flying in the face of almost 140 years of Liberal support for devolution in Ireland, Scotland and Wales. If anything, Welsh support for their own institutions has increased over the last 30 years, as evidenced by the 63% support for the 2011 referendum authorising further devolution of powers. As such, if the Welsh Lib Dems wish to stake a distinctive position in the domestic political climate, then I would agree with Mr Meredith that “devo max” would appear the approach to take, putting clear water between the party and Plaid, Labour and Reform.
In response to Paul Culloty:
Thank you very much for your kind words, and you are correct; support for the strengthening of Welsh democracy is growing! I think it would be foolish of the Welsh Lib Dems to allow Plaid to take ownership of the “Welsh affairs” matter, as there is such a strong liberal strain that runs through Wales.
And as for Mr Meredith, he’s my dad (a tractor driver for the local county council, that is certainly crying out for change after so many years of being used as a political tool by successive Welsh Labour governments); you can call me Jack 🙂 (but I appreciate it all the same, I’ve not been called Mr Meredith before!)
The Welsh Lib Dems should target 3 of the new mega constituencies and ignore the other 13, pouring in all resources to try to squeeze 3 Senedd members. The new system is even more iniquitous than the one that went before, for the smaller parties, and one sixth of the vote is a very high bar. They should campaign about issues voters care about (federalism, despite being a LD obsession, is probably not even in the top 50). Treat the election like a council election where local issues – roads, schools, hospitals – are prioritised. Sadly they will make the same mistake they always make – spread themselves too thin and return 0-1 MSs.
I don’t know why people are saying that the Welsh political system is complicated, it’s actually much simpler than England. There is one primary tier of local government, no directly elected city or regional mayors, and community and town councils.
Next year we simplify the system further by abolishing the two tiers of Senedd members and replacing them with 6 members elected in multi member constituencies. The big mistake Labour and Plaid have made is that they have chosen the closed list system, removing candidates names from the ballot paper and denying the voter choice in the individual they want to elect. The public feel disenfranchised by that, and giving an additional opening to Reform who would like us all to think that Nigel Farage is top of their list in every seat. The new Senedd can put that right by replacing closed lists with STV, and that must be a key demand for our party after the election.
The increase in the size of Senedd does give us new opportunities though. We can win one seat in a multi-member consitutuency with 15% of the vote, and with a five or six party system probably less. Building our support and maximising the turnout in strong areas within target constituencies, and building the profile of our lead candidates will give us the opportunity to rebuild a strong group in the Senedd which could have huge influence on a new Welsh government.
Lead candidates have already been selected in a number of constituences and the work has started.
The threshold vote to win a seat in a 6-member constituency is well under 15%., because a substantial proportion of votes are wasted. It will vary from seat to seat but with an average of 11 to 12.5 %. To see why: as example, you might have party votes of 24, 20, 18, 16, 12 and 8 %, with 2% for fringe parties; this would give 2,1,1,1,1,0 seats respectively at a threshold of 12%.
My 11 to 12.5% figure here comes from a comparison of Northern Ireland Assembly elections under 6-member seat STV with what would have happened under the system proposed for Wales. One of the consoling features of Wales adopting List-PR is that it could be adapted to STV by making three conceptually simple improvements:
(1) allow wasted votes (from surpluses and excluded parties) to be transferred to the voter’s next preference;
(2) allow voters to put candidates within a list in order of preference (i.e. `Open-list’ instead of `Closed-list’);
(3) allow voters to express preferences for any candidates, not just those of one party.
Do all these and you have STV – which was what two Welsh Senedd committees recommended before being over-ruled by a stitch-up between the Labour and Plaid Cymru leaders.
To return to our prospects in Wales, I absolutely agree that we need to concentrate on a small number of constituencies where we have a reasonable prospect of reaching that threshold of around 12%.