Jo Swinson: Liberal Democrats close to winning hundreds of seats

Speaking on Radio 4 this morning, Jo Swinson said

Our polling shows that are within a small swing of winning hundreds of seats; because the political landscape is so totally changed by what has happened in our country.

Neither Boris Johnson nor Jeremy Corbyn is fit to be Prime Minister. Our country deserves a better choice and I am standing as a candidate to be Prime Minister and I would just say to you Martha, it is not up to anybody to tell people what they can or can’t choose – what is or isn’t possible – this will be decided by members of the public, people listening to this show, in the streets up and down the country.

The Liberal Democrats have a positive, alternative vision of the future, that is what I am going to be fighting for at this election.

It is important to reject Corbyn and Johnson – though there are others in their parties who can be reasonable. But the rest of the message is overwhelmingly positive. We can turn this country around. We can demand better. Nobody is constrained by the mistakes of the past. This is what the country is crying out for – a bit of hope – a way out of all this mess.

It’s all to play for. Our future is at stake. Game on.

* Joe Otten was the candidate for Sheffield Heeley in June 2017 and Doncaster North in December 2019 and is a councillor in Sheffield.

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  • Paul Barker 30th Oct '19 - 5:39pm

    One of the things that its hard to overstate is just how “Highly Geared” our electoral system is. Our current polling around 18% is predicted to get us 40 or 50 Seats. The conventional Models suggest that 30% would get us 150 Seats
    while 34% would give us 350 Seats & a solid Majority.
    That band where the system goes crazy would probably be moved down by as much as 5% if we can get a workable arrangement with other Anti-Brexit Parties.
    Its worth remembering that in May we gained 5% on our average Polling in 3 Weeks. Things could move very quickly if we can convince Voters to take our chances seriously.

  • David Evans 30th Oct '19 - 6:16pm

    Unfortunately Paul Barker, it isn’t true that “in May we gained 5% on our average Polling in 3 Weeks.” We didn’t. 3 weeks before the May elections we were in the range 8% to 11% in the polls. By election time, the polls were in the range 8% to 13%.

    On polling day we polled 19%, but as I have told you on numerous occasions on LDV, we always do about 5% better in local council elections than in a General election.

    Of course by the end of May we were in the range 16% to 24%. That was driven by our success in May’s elections, which is great. Unfortunately there isn’t a similar nationwide set of elections coming up before Christmas to do the same again.

    As for your “while 34% would give us 350 Seats & a solid Majority,” that is just a fancy.

  • Remarkable poll out today says 1 in 4 Jewish people are going to vote LibDem.
    [with change since GE 2017]
    Cons 64% (-3)
    LibDem 24% (+19)
    Lab 6% (-4).
    conducted by Survation, mid Sep – mid Oct. sample size 766.
    In my view we’ve been far too shy about talking about Labour’s anti-Semitism problem. I hope we’re going to lose that shyness in this election. It’s not just a valid issue, it’s an important one. Apart from anything else, it goes straight to Corbyn’s unfitness to be PM.

  • chris moore 30th Oct '19 - 7:32pm

    David Evans 30th Oct ’19 – 6:16pm As for your “while 34% would give us 350 Seats & a solid Majority,” that is just a fancy.

    Actually, that’s correct psephologically, if the Brexit party also eats into the Tory vote.
    The chances of it happening are, of course, slight.

    The all-out Remain strategy limits us to competing for half the electorate. We can add a couple of % for Lib Dem leave voters. So we’re highly unlikely to get higher than the low 20s, unless Labour melts down.

    Many Remain voters will stay with their favoured party: Labour or Tory or Green.

  • I’ve posted this in another thread but make no apology for doing it again. Everyone who is speculating about our chances here, how about actually doing something to influence them? Let’s all mark the start of this campaign by sending the party a wee donation. I’m including all you silent readers as well! I’ve just done it myself, and I’m feeling all virtuous now. 🙂
    Having been involved in national GE campaigns in the past, I promise you money is what the party needs more than anything right now, and every penny will count.
    Want to see big LibDem wins on 12/12? OK, send whatever you can (£1, £5, £20, £50 – whatever). And please do it now, before you forget. Let’s make a difference.

  • Andrew McCaig 30th Oct '19 - 9:21pm

    David Evans,
    I suspect Paul is talking about the 3 weeks of May leading up to the EU election, when we put on more like 8%.
    Of course the local elections were really important for that but we put on the most in London where there were no local elections, so the effect was based on reestablishing credibility rather than local voting or campaigning as such.

    “Jeremy Corbyn has challenged Boris Johnson to a head-to-head TV debate during the election campaign.”
    – Which channel? Certainly they can’t appropriate a public service broadcaster to the two of them, and ignore the other leaders of Nation-wide parties? If they want a private debate, they shouldn’t use the publicly funded media.

  • Andrew McCraig. But it was the Local Election results that gave us that credibility. Up to then the Media and indeed LDV was awash with speculation on how the brand new Chuk/Tiggs were going to replace us. The National Opinion Polls up that point were only a small amount up on the 7/8% flatlining of late 2010-early 2019.

  • chris moore 31st Oct '19 - 8:10am

    There was some defeatist comment on here about TIGS/CHUK, but there were also posters like myself, who were clear about the serious limitations of the new groupuscle and of our own strengths.

  • Richard Underhill. 31st Oct '19 - 11:53am

    It was impossible to understand what the Speaker or deputy was saying in the Commons without the agenda.
    I learn from newspapers (Times, Telegraph) that the proposal to allow votes at 16 was not selected by Deputy Speaker Lindsay Hoyle
    He is standing for election by MPs to be the next Speaker, so MPs standing again might be careful not to upset him.
    He appears to have caved in to pressure from the current government leading to widespread cheers from Tory MPs.
    Even if the Labour MPs were present were old-fashioned, or unconcerned about the democratic principle involved, they should have realised that widening the franchise might be advantageous to them, which is too often the basis on which these decisions are made. They have, with hindsight, supported votes for women, but they should read what Roy Hattersley wrote about the attitudes of male dominated trade unions and trade unionists before the 1918 general election. They thought that allowing votes for women would endanger the prospects a wider enfranchisement for males.
    The Commons should debate the issue in principle, perhaps on the adjournment.

  • Not sure about winning 100’s of seats! If the Lib Dems get a 10% swing in their favour, in each constituency, they would gain just18. The Tories on the other hand would gain 121 seats with a 10% swing. I think you will do well, but you really do have a mountain to climb.

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