All this week, Lib Dem Voice is publishing the results of our September survey of party members conducted through Liberty Research via our private members’ forum. This is the second of our monthly surveys – if you have ideas for future survey questions, please email me at [email protected].
Today we look at party members’ expectations of the result of the next general election, which has to be called within the next 18 months or so. According to LDV’s most recent polling analysis the current state of the parties is this: Tories, 46%; Labour, 26%; Lib Dems 17%.
LDV asked: What is your view of the most likely result of the next general election?
Here’s what you said:
A Conservative landslide: 21.9%
A working Conservative majority: 60.4%
Conservatives largest single party, but no majority: 14.6%
Labour largest single party, but no majority: 0%
A working Labour majority: 0%
Don’t know / No opinion: 3.1%
So a whopping 82% of LDV-reading party members believe the Tories will form the next government; and not a single respondent predicted a Labour victory of any sort. This is quite a turnaround even from last May, when we ran a poll open to all LDV readers – then, only 50% reckoned the Tories would win a majority at the next general election.
We then turned our attention to the Lib Dems. Party leader Nick Clegg has declared it his aim to double the number of Lib Dem MPs over the course of the next two general elections – which would mean the party having some 125 MPs within the next seven years.
LDV asked: The Lib Dems currently number 63 MPs. How many MPs do you think the Lib Dems will have after the next general election?
Over 100: 3.1%
75-100: 9.4%
63-75: 33.3%
50-63: 36.5%
30-50: 15.6%
Fewer than 30: 2.1%
So 46% of you predict that the Lib Dems will make gains on the party’s current position, and end up with more than 63 MPs. And, in total, 82% of party members in this survey believe the Lib Dems will have at least 50 MPs after the next general election. Those parts of the media which still imagine a Lib Dem wipe-out is possible should take note of this internal confidence in the party’s future prospects.
LDV members’ survey (1): Simon Hughes and the Lib Dem presidency
LDV members’ survey (2): who you would elect party president
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5 Comments
Could you run a poll to see if any Lib Dems think that Clegg will still be in charge two elections down the road?
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Don’t get so smug, LFAT. Cameron’s place is very precarious & the bulk of the party are only going along with his “liberalism” (which isn’t real anyway) because they consider it a vote winner, notwithstanding the hordes who have deserted him altogether because any move away from the Daily Mail alienates them.
Cameron’s (obviously) not a liberal and doesn’t even pretend to be. He is, however, a centrist.
52.1% of respondents believe that after the next election we will have at best made no net gains. I’m not sure that counts as terrific “internal confidence” (for the record, I voted for the 63-75 MPs option – and stand by it. And people call me a pessimist!).
Let’s not lose sight of the fact that the currently Tories hold 198 seats – fewer than Labour did in 1983. For them to win an overall majority from that position would be unprecedented in the ‘democratic’ era. (In quotes, because any system conferring absolute power on 36% ain’t democratic, of course).
This is the moment of opportunity, not OK-let’s-let-the-Tories-get-in-and-wait-till-they-cock-it-up. All we need are some credible, market-sceptic policies on public services, and the world’s our oyster.