Lib Dem Voice has polled our members-only forum to discover what Lib Dem members think of the Coalition Government’s budget, and what you make of the Lib Dems’ and Government’s performance to date. Over 350 party members have responded, and we’ve been publishing the full results of our survey this week.
In the penultimate part of the survey today, we take a look at the performance of the Lib Dems and our leader. First we asked: Do you think, as a whole, the Liberal Democrats are on the right course or on the wrong track?
Here’s what our sample of Lib Dem members reckon:
- 71% – The right course
- 19% – The wrong track
- 10% – Don’t know / No opinion
We’ve asked this question a number of times over the past couple of years. In September 2008, the “right course / wrong track” split was 60% / 28% (this improved to 71% / 19% post-conference). In September 2009, it was 77% / 15%. And in February this year, the “right course / wrong track” split was 78% / 16%.
The current 71% / 19% is therefore lower than it has been for the past year, but not significantly so – especially when considering the testing circumstances of the past two months.
But what of Nick Clegg’s leadership? LDV asked: What is your view of Nick Clegg’s performance as Lib Dem leader?
Here’s what our sample of Lib Dem members told us:
- 27% – Very effective
- 55% – Effective
- 10% – Ineffective
- 4% – Very ineffective
- 4% – Don’t know / No opinion
Net satisfaction = +68%
Overall, then, 82% of members view Nick’s leadership as effective, compared with 14% viewing it as ineffective, a net satisfaction rating of +68%. We’ve asked this question in this format since September 2009 – at that point, Nick’s net satisfaction rating was +41% (improving to +62% post-conference). By February this year, it had had reached +66%. This month’s figure is, therefore, Nick’s highest yet approval rating in LDV’s surveys of party members.
You can catch up on the result of all our LDV members surveys by clicking here.
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24 Comments
I do wish LDV would stop referring to these things as surveys of party members. While all people surveyed were party members, they were also readers of LDV, who had registered on the site’s members-only forum, and who had responded to the survey in a reasonably short timeframe.
I’m not sure how this affects the political bias of the questions, but it probably affects the demographic bias towards young, male and geeky. I’m not saying that these surveys are interesting or useful, but the implication that they’re somehow representative of Lib Dem membership as a whole insinuates a degree of representation that I don’t think can be justified.
Perhaps you should worry less about party members who also read LDV and take more notice of what’s happening in the opinion polls. On 6 July, the Lib Dems registered 15% in a YouGov poll, suggesting that one-third of the people who voted for you on 6 May have jumped ship. Tories up, Labour even more up, since the gemeral election, and unless you get out of this appalling right-wing government soon, you will be finished as an effective political force, and that will be a pity.
Dave: you’re right about the need to treat our figures with care and thought, though (to my pleasant surprise) when I’ve looked at the answers by age, region or gender, they haven’t varied much – so at least in those three respects, there doesn’t appear to be an issue.
@Bert
The new YouGov methodology is all you need to explain the drop; they’ve deliberately changed the way they weight and calculate the numbers to ensure our percentages are reported lower – until we have widespread real election data to compare with similarly timed forecasts there’s no reason to conclude that the new method is anything other than bad guesswork based on rubbish.
Andrew
And how about ICM’s last poll, which showed the Lib Dems at 16%, compared with 26% for their final poll of the campaign? Are you seriously trying to tell us that doesn’t indicate a real drop in Lib Dem support?
Or the last ComRes poll, which showed the Lib Dems at 18%, compared with 28% for their final poll of the campaign?
Andrew,
Perhaps the unprecedented Question Time boo from the audience tonight for Michael Moore, a politician who has sold his soul, will tell you more about the drop and why it will continue.
Or the last Ipsos-MORI, which showed the Lib Dems at 19%, compared with 27% for their final poll of the campaign?
ComRes have made similar methodological changes that are as yet not appropriately tested; it’s a shame really that all pollsters presently polling have adopted these changes alongside one another; it is near impossible at the moment to contrast active methodologies and discern any real shift from the methodoigical effect.
@David
Please highlight for me the last government minister and ideally secretary of state for Scotland who wasn’t booed by a Scottish QT audience…
Andrew
You didn’t answer my question. I asked whether you were really trying to tell us these polls don’t indicate a real drop in Lib Dem support.
To remind you of the evidence. Latest poll rating, compared with final poll before the election.
YouGov: -11
ICM: -10
ComRes: -10
Ipsos-MORI: -8
@all those worried about LD polling or trying to change LD practise in government
I’ve voted LD since the 1980’s, never otherwise in mainland Britain. Every parliament I’ve seen terrible polling figures for the LDs. I really couldn’t give a damn. From my point of view, the LD ministers and MPs have my confidence and should keep on keeping on. Every parliament the LD polling figures have plummeted quickly after the election. I’ve been there, seen that, got loads of the teeshirts. LDs are now in government, they should use the opportunity in as far as they can to develop Britain towards our ideal of Liberal Democracy. Ignore the polls, polls are for yesterday, not for tomorrow. Be brave, take bold steps. Change the Tories where you can, restrain them where you cannot. While your doing that, you are changing the Labour party, too. Britain is changing and I applaud.
btw feedback: I think David Heath is just the tops. Saw him on the BBC batting away various Labour sneers and insults and some frankly bizarre suggestions from all sides of the HoC, when he came to the dispatch box as Deputy Leader of the House. His style was robust and exactly what the LDs need to calm any nerves. 10/10 from me.
“Ignore the polls, polls are for yesterday, not for tomorrow.”
But this is a thread about polls, of one sort or another, so “ignore the polls” perhaps isn’t the most sensible comment to make.
And “ignore the polls” is one thing. But trying to claim that falls of around 10 points in the poll rating don’t actually reflect any real change in public opinion is quite another!
@Anthony
“Ignore the polls” isn’t a comment, it is advice, you would instead have the LD ministers change course and would cite concerns as one reason to do so. I repeat, nay insist, ignore the polls.
I do claim that a large fall is no different than what happens to the LD poll ratings in the immediate aftermath of every General Election, for it is in fact the truth. It signifies that the LDs find it difficult to put across their message, nothing more.
Let me re-iterate: keep on keeping on. You have five years, don’t waste a minute. Ignore the polls.
@Anthony
My position was made quite clear – due to methodology changes by all pollsters since the election it is clear that we are not comparing like with like and the pollsters’ new figures are yet to be tested; there is no reason to conclude, as it has not been shown, and there is a high potential for it not to be the case, that there has been any real drop in Lib Dem support, rather the change perceived has potential to be merely a consequence of the pollsters’ deliberate but inappropriate changes to how they weight and recalculate the raw data collected.
As Paul has said, Lib Dem supporters and members are used to low polling outside of elections, which just goes to show who the Labour and other flavour of trolls are on here. Though why some of them seem to spend so much time on a public comments board whining about a party they do not support is beyond me.
It seems to me that a lot of you are burying your heads in the sand. It’s quite obvious that Lib Dem support is falling away because most of the 23% of the electorate who voted for you were against cuts this year, against any VAT increase (remember the “VAT bombshell” posters?), were in favour of a mansion tax, and against student tuition fees and probably Trident. They may even have thought it sensible to have a one-off amnesty for illegal immigrants. They had listened to Vince Cable rubbishing Osborne, and Chris Huhne attacking Hague over the Ashcroft affair. What did they get? A right-wing government which is determined to cut deeper and faster than the IMF thinks necessary, and a Budget which is putting up VAT and which will add 1.3 million to unemployment. Don’t you think they might be a trifle disillusioned with the integrity of the Lib Dem leadership?
Andrew
To be honest I think denial is too weak a word for the assertion that there is no reason to conclude that the polls show a real drop in Lib Dem support since the election.
In particular, it’s rather desperate to try to blame it all on YouGov’s methodological changes. The effect of those can be quite easily seen. The last poll under the old methodology, concluded on 18 June, had the Lib Dems at 19%. The first poll under the new methodology, concluded three days later, had them at 18%. So it’s clear enough that there’s no alibi there.
@Anthony
May I recommend UKPollingReport as a resource for understanding polling company methodology and poll applicability?
They offer helpful explanations of both margin of error and rogue polls which may be of interest to you…
@ Dave Page (apologies for delayed response): you say “I do wish LDV would stop referring to these things as surveys of party members.”
I’m not sure how else we can refer to them: that’s what they are! And I’m scrupulous to make sure that I always report (i) the source of our sample – the LDV members forum, (ii) the numbers of those surveyed who responded, and (iii) that these surveys report the findings clearly as “our sample of party members”.
No claim is ever made on LDV that these surveys are necessarily representative of the party membership as a whole. However, on the couple of occasions they have been put to the test – the 2008 contest for the party presidency and the coalition special conference in Birmingham – the LDV surveys have accurately reflected the votes of members.
In any case, these are the largest independent surveys of the Lib Dem membership, and our best chance outside of party conferences of measuring the views of members across the country.
@Anthony Aloysius St
I genuinely think that the presence of Liberal Democrats in government is dramatically changing political discourse in this country. This Conservative led coalition is implementing the most liberal policy platform this country has seen for decades, in all sorts of areas. None of this would have happened without the coalition. I believe that the Conservative party will be permanently changed, and for the better, as a result. And then I read this, http://www.guardian.co.uk/society/2010/jul/08/ed-miliband-prison-and-probation , evidence that the Labour party is also adapting to the new political discourse. And the Conservatives in government will have to tack further to our wind, too.
Liberal Democracy is thriving in the United Kingdom, and I, for once, heartily cheer.
Even if the Liberal Democrats, as a party, suffer electorally, it will have been worth the price. But, I don’t believe that they will suffer, in the end, because the British public will see the good that they will have wrought.
“May I recommend UKPollingReport as a resource for understanding polling company methodology and poll applicability?
They offer helpful explanations of both margin of error and rogue polls which may be of interest to you…”
Presumably you don’t know that UKPollingReport is actually written by Anthony Wells of YouGov (as in “bad guesswork based on rubbish”, according to you).
Certainly you don’t seem to have read it recently, or you would have seen his detailed discussion of the YouGov methodology change, in which he explains that it affects the Lib Dem rating only “slightly”, and you would be aware that he has been commenting since before that change on the consistent picture of falling Lib Dem support shown by the polls.
@Anthony
Perfectly aware of the site author and his occupation; my suggestion was that there were several means to explain the difference; I make no claims the guy’s infallible.