10 Comments

• Paul Barker 25th Jun '21 - 11:06am

  This seems like jumping to conclusions to me. There were 6 Byelections yesterday, in the ones in Scotland & Wales we failed to stand, we made massive gains in Vote share in Chichester but massive losses in Somerset, though we held the seat easily. Admittedly the local Tories ran a massive campaign.
  The Polls seem to tell a much clearer story with all 3 showing rises on their previous figures but we need to see more, perhaps tomorrow ?

• Fiona 25th Jun '21 - 11:17am

  I’m sure there’s a bit of a bounce in part due to the Chesham and Amersham by-election and a number of other issues, and I see nothing wrong with enjoying a bit of positivity, but without getting carried away. With eyes firmly on Batley & Spen the media is back to business as usual and we’ll get shouted at by some for having too many votes (stolen from Labour), whilst mocked by others for having not very many.

  It’s probably a good time to get out there delivering Focuses and canvassing, not just because of the weather. This is a time when people are getting fed up of the government and unsure of what’s happening with Labour, so will be receptive to finding out more about an alternative, but I think we’ve got a series of discrete bounces around the country which we may be able to capitalise on rather than anything national (yet).

• Alex Macfie 25th Jun '21 - 11:34am

  Fiona: Our cmapaign in Batley & Spen is focused on the three Wards where the Tories are strongest (one Lib Dem held with Tories 2nd, the other two Tory). Our calculation is that the voters there are mainly soft Tories who will consider voting for us but never Labour. If we “steal” votes from anyone, it’ll be the Tories. If anyone is “stealing” votes from Labour, it’s George Galloway, but we’re not fighting for the same votes as he is.

• Mary Reid 25th Jun '21 - 2:25pm

  Bill Brisbane, who won in Chichester, has form in defeating Labour. In 2014 he made inroads into the only Labour held ward in Kingston by splitting the vote and taking one of them by 3 votes … but only after three days of counting!

• Fiona 25th Jun '21 - 2:34pm

  Apologies Alex, I didn’t mean to assert we/you were stealing votes from Labour. Just pointing out that is what will be said, whilst others will be mocking us for not getting enough votes. And if we’re realistic we know there will be people who do both.

  The point being that whilst the Chesham and Amersham byelection result was a great moment which we can and should rightly enjoy and the campaign as a whole is a big morale boost for the party and campaigners, the Batley & Spen byelection is one where we won’t be able to do right for doing wrong. We should be prepared for pelters.

  I understand and agree with the approach in B&S, and more than agree that Galloway is the real problem (not restricted to this byelection). That said, if I’m foolish enough to take social media seriously, I get the sense that LibDems are more keen for a Labour victory in B&S than a chunk of Labour who want to use the result to prove a point re Corbyn and Starmer.

• Paul Barker 25th Jun '21 - 4:04pm

  We have now seen 4 Polls since C & A, one at 9% & the other 3 giving us 10%. Compared to each Firm,s previous Poll two show us up by 3% & the other 1% & 2%.

  These rises seem pretty astonishing in a Week, actually less than that if you look at the dates the data was collected.

  Thinking more about the effect on Local Byelections, I had forgotten that these days a high proportion of the Votes tend to be Postal, up to two thirds.
  Given that we probably need to wait another two Weeks to see any possible effect.

• Michael 1 26th Jun '21 - 9:31am

  It looks as if the fieldwork for 3 of the 4 polls was at least in part carried out before the by-election and it also takes quite a long time for people to catch up on the news – so it may be the Saturday papers etc. before they hear about it (if they do!)

  In theory – yougov had us on 6% before C&A and its latest poll 9% – which is on the face of it 50% more people voting for us in a week! But there is also a margin of error of +/- 3%! (Although technically this for a 50% rating and the MOE is less at lower ratings).

  On what has happened in the past we should expect about a 3%-4% boost. We should though remember that we would be pretty dissatisfied with a rating around 10% – less than we got at the last General. There’s a very, very long way to go. And I fear that a “one more heave” or “deliver a million focuses locally” (important though that is!) strategy won’t work.

  While not taking anything away from the Chichester result I believe there was no Green candidate – and they got 18% before. Equally I believe from the internet there have been a few tensions surrounding the Lib Dems in Somerset West and Taunton – with Andrew Teale in his preview on Britain Elects saying: “However, there appears to have been some infighting within the group. North Curry and Ruishton councillor Phil Stone resigned earlier this year, 34 years after his first election to Taunton Deane council, after falling out with the council leadership; and other defections mean that the party has to hold this resulting by-election to preserve its majority on the council.”

  http://www.britainelects.com/2021/06/24/council-by-election-previews-24-jun-2021/

  That we did hold the seat and presumably the Tories would massively have liked to have seen us lose it – must be seen – from afar – as a reasonable result if not outstanding.

• David Raw 26th Jun '21 - 4:20pm

  I notice Alex Macfie is commenting again here on the by-election campaign in my native Batley & Spen (where I spent the first thirty years of my life and helped to reform what was then the Brighouse & Spenborough Liberal Assocation back in 1962).

  Elsewhere on LDV he says there isn’t much press coverage. If he cares to take a look at the local newspaper coverage (the Spenborough Guardian, and the Dewsbury Reporter websites) he might be surprised about what appears to be really going on there.

• Martin 26th Jun '21 - 5:44pm

  David Raw:

  So what apparently is going on? You have read the local rags and know the area, why not tell us how it appears to you?

• Martin 26th Jun '21 - 7:45pm

  David Raw:

  Frustratingly, I could see the beginning of your reply on ‘Recent Comments’, so thank you for trying to reply … I am guessing what has happened.