Clearly the Lib Dem leader has been putting a lot of thought into this, and has shared with BBC Online the following order of likelihood of the date of the next general election:
October 2007 – 15%
May 2008 – 35%
May 2009 – 50%
Well, as Alan Hansen would say, you’ve got to play percentages.
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I think we should be careful using language such as ‘the public tend to vote one way or another’. It is suggestive that he believes we are in a two party system. Maybe I read too much into it. But I’d be intrigued to hear the reasons behind these predictions.
According to the BBC, Ming’s percentages don’t add up. He said it was “one in 6 chance for this year, 35% for next and 50% for the year after”. Correct me if I’m wrong, but doesn’t that add up to 101.67%?
Inflation
June 2009 – 100%
If Ming is going to shout the odds, maybe he should start contributing to politicalbetting.com.
(Or maybe he already is!)
If he is gambling on Political Betting and giving his odds, he could be accused of bet fixing!