British politics has been reshaped. Andy Burnham has consolidated the centre left, pushed Reform to the margins and made a progressive coalition government the new baseline. The right is fragmented and unable to command a majority. In this new landscape, the Liberal Democrats face a simple but brutal question: will we be the kingmakers who define the next era, or the footnote that history barely records?

Current polling points to three possible futures. The difference between them is not fate. It is choice.

The first future is collapse. If we enter the next general election without bold, memorable policies, with weak national leadership and no clear position on rejoining the EU, we risk falling back to around 12 seats. In this scenario, Burnham’s Labour consolidates the progressive vote in urban and suburban seats. The Conservatives recover enough in the Blue Wall and rural constituencies to win back many of our 2024 gains. We are left with a handful of ultra Remain, highly educated seats, clinging to relevance as a token junior partner in any coalition. Our brand is shattered, our leverage is minimal and our voice is drowned out.

The second future is survival. If we run a competent but unexciting campaign, we end up with roughly 55 seats. Burnham’s Labour continues to surge, reaching around a third of the national vote and becoming the largest party by a clear margin. Much of that gain comes at our expense and from the Greens, especially in London, the South East and university towns. We hold many of our 2024 gains but lose ground where Labour re establishes itself as the default progressive choice. We remain the second largest force in a progressive coalition, but we are weakened. We can extract concessions on local government, education and some environmental policies, but we cannot dictate the direction of travel on Europe, tax or public services. We are relevant, but not decisive.

The third future is transformation. If we find our voice, present clear cut through policies, demonstrate strong leadership and commit credibly to rejoining the EU, we can surge to around 120 seats. In this scenario, we offer a simple, memorable platform: restoring and reforming the NHS with fresh funding and a focus on prevention and social care, fixing the cost of living crisis through targeted support and housing reform, investing in green jobs and infrastructure, and delivering a serious plan for schools, universities and lifelong learning.

We can deliver on these policies as they will be funded by Rejoining the EU. We set out a step by step route back to the EU, starting with single market and customs union membership and ending with re entry on a realistic timetable. Our leader performs well in debates, connects on doorsteps and is seen as a plausible future chancellor or deputy prime minister. Disaffected pro EU Labour voters, moderate Conservatives uneasy about Reform and first time voters who care about climate and education rally behind us. Labour remains the largest party, but we hold the balance of power. We become the kingmaker that defines the era, insisting on proportional representation, major local government reform, a green investment programme and a clear path back to Europe as conditions of our support.

Burnham Britain does not erase the Liberal Democrats. It forces us to choose. We can be marginal, moderate or decisive. The seat total we end up with will be the direct result of that choice.

The time for hedging is over. The time for clarity is now. Let us step forward with bold policies, strong leadership and a credible commitment to rejoining the EU. Let us refuse to be a footnote. Let us become the party that shapes the next chapter of British history.

* Gareth McAleer is a Liberal Democrat member in Didcot and Wantage, and is active in the Liberal Democrat European Group.