British politics has been reshaped. Andy Burnham has consolidated the centre left, pushed Reform to the margins and made a progressive coalition government the new baseline. The right is fragmented and unable to command a majority. In this new landscape, the Liberal Democrats face a simple but brutal question: will we be the kingmakers who define the next era, or the footnote that history barely records?
Current polling points to three possible futures. The difference between them is not fate. It is choice.
The first future is collapse. If we enter the next general election without bold, memorable policies, with weak national leadership and no clear position on rejoining the EU, we risk falling back to around 12 seats. In this scenario, Burnham’s Labour consolidates the progressive vote in urban and suburban seats. The Conservatives recover enough in the Blue Wall and rural constituencies to win back many of our 2024 gains. We are left with a handful of ultra Remain, highly educated seats, clinging to relevance as a token junior partner in any coalition. Our brand is shattered, our leverage is minimal and our voice is drowned out.
The second future is survival. If we run a competent but unexciting campaign, we end up with roughly 55 seats. Burnham’s Labour continues to surge, reaching around a third of the national vote and becoming the largest party by a clear margin. Much of that gain comes at our expense and from the Greens, especially in London, the South East and university towns. We hold many of our 2024 gains but lose ground where Labour re establishes itself as the default progressive choice. We remain the second largest force in a progressive coalition, but we are weakened. We can extract concessions on local government, education and some environmental policies, but we cannot dictate the direction of travel on Europe, tax or public services. We are relevant, but not decisive.
The third future is transformation. If we find our voice, present clear cut through policies, demonstrate strong leadership and commit credibly to rejoining the EU, we can surge to around 120 seats. In this scenario, we offer a simple, memorable platform: restoring and reforming the NHS with fresh funding and a focus on prevention and social care, fixing the cost of living crisis through targeted support and housing reform, investing in green jobs and infrastructure, and delivering a serious plan for schools, universities and lifelong learning.
We can deliver on these policies as they will be funded by Rejoining the EU. We set out a step by step route back to the EU, starting with single market and customs union membership and ending with re entry on a realistic timetable. Our leader performs well in debates, connects on doorsteps and is seen as a plausible future chancellor or deputy prime minister. Disaffected pro EU Labour voters, moderate Conservatives uneasy about Reform and first time voters who care about climate and education rally behind us. Labour remains the largest party, but we hold the balance of power. We become the kingmaker that defines the era, insisting on proportional representation, major local government reform, a green investment programme and a clear path back to Europe as conditions of our support.
Burnham Britain does not erase the Liberal Democrats. It forces us to choose. We can be marginal, moderate or decisive. The seat total we end up with will be the direct result of that choice.
The time for hedging is over. The time for clarity is now. Let us step forward with bold policies, strong leadership and a credible commitment to rejoining the EU. Let us refuse to be a footnote. Let us become the party that shapes the next chapter of British history.
* Gareth McAleer is a Liberal Democrat member in Didcot and Wantage, and is active in the Liberal Democrat European Group.
Follow @libdemvoice.org on Bluesky
Like us on Facebook
Subscribe to our feed
Sign-up for our daily email digest
The Joy of Six 1558
A murder mystery set in Parliament, written by a pioneering MP
Climate change ushers in record-breaking July
"Making Liverpool a global force," Liverpool Lib Dem proposals for regenerating our economy
Rif Winfield
Nick Baird
Steve Trevethan
Edward marsh
James Hargrave
18 Comments
You are right that rejoining the EU could be a key differentiator, but incremental single market/customs union re-entry are more achievable near-term than full membership. From polling, I do not believe that it is a top priority for most of the country, and certainly not a silver bullet to all our problems, considering the EU is also fraught with issues at the moment.
Alternatively, I would suggest emphasising federalism as opposed to devolution as a more radical change to empower left-behind regions, but there is no appetite for this. Then it begs the question; is low support due to lack of awareness of a policy proposal? So, it might be down to campaigning and communication.
I would urge the party to focus on a distinctive non-statist, bottom-up, co-operative model for the economy, whilst focusing on financial stability that might become a concern as the plans are short of the detail and might mean increased borrowing.
There is one obvious trend that looks unstoppable, The Decline of Reform. That is unalloyed Good News but it does have the side effects of A Conservative Recovery & a loss of Seats for us & it makes a Hung Parliament much more likely in 2029.
We need to start thinking about what we will do now, not leave it to the last moment. If a Hung Parliament looks likely then we will be pressured to say what we will do. We should make it clear that Coalition is not Inevitable, there is no reason why Labour or The Conservatives can’t form a Minority Government, Chaos would not result, lots of other Countries have done it. If we can convince The other Parties that We mean it then Our Negotiating Position will be that much stronger.
I have been out calling on known supporters asking for help today in one of our top 10 target seats. The response was enthusiastic and I recruited 5 new helpers in about 3 hours.
I think the key differentiator however is not REjoinig the EU. Rejoining is going back – things have changed – it is the past – it is conservative. I think a much better framing is a choice between being the 51st state (Reform) drifting around in mid Atlantic (Tories but heavily tempted by the 51st state) and standing tall with our European neighbours. The emphasis is on security and growth rather political structures.
We were joined by one of our more high profile MPs. I was told – the Parliamentry party is -rightly -ambitious for power.
“Andy Burnham has consolidated the centre left, pushed Reform to the margins and made a progressive coalition government the new baseline. ”
Has he? The evidence that this is at best still sketchy. The one thing that you can say for certain is that things could all change between now and a 2027/8/9 General election.
“If we run a competent but unexciting campaign, we end up with roughly 55 seats.”
This would be by any historic standard a great result. It’s credible that well entrenched MPs and a strong ground game defends most of the 2024 gainst whilst the Tories remain becalmed.
“transformation…. we can surge to around 120 seats”
That involves winning 25-30 seats from third place. Since the war the Liberal/Lib Dems have won I think two seats from third place. That seems quite a stretch goal.
“they will be funded by Rejoining the EU.”
Again quite a bold claim. That requires the agreement of the rest of the EU, support of other parties in a coalition and likely a positive result in a referendum. The EU is unlikely to be too keen on a readmission that is not the very clear settled will of the populace so a 53/47 referendum with 1/2 major opposition parties pledging to leave (again) they might say ‘not yet’. In any case it is prob 4 years down the line from a general election day so not a short time funding plan.
Do the LDs have an actual political project apart from “more seats in the HOC”? Asking for a friend.
The UK is already a very socially liberal society by world standards. We only need to watch a TV program from the 70s to know how far we’ve come since then. Mostly they are now shown with disclaimers to say that “This program reflects the attitudes and standards of the time”.
We probably still have some way to go but we are getting there. Mostly the far right have given up fighting on issues like gay marriage and even do their best to quieten down the more racist in their ranks.
So you’re probably not going to win many votes by pushing for even faster progress.
The question that is more difficult for Lib Dems is whether to be economically liberal: Having trust in free and deregulated markets, wanting to minimise the extent of government and imposed taxation, believing that individual self-interest and voluntary exchange drive the greatest societal prosperity.
Looking on as a relative outsider, LibDems seem to be split on this.
I agree with Hwyel, but a bit more brutally.
Labour won in 2024 because
1) Johnson being seen for what he was – an incompetent bluffer in way beyond his depth,
2) Liz Truss had no clue about economics,
3) Rishi Sunak didn’t understand electioneering.
We won our 72 seats because of the above plus
4) Moderate Conservatives sick of the mess, voted for us.
5) Tactical voting on the left generally worked.
6) We were seen to be able to win because of the four by election wins.
**The by-elections were the most important** and only happened because activists from all over the country, not party administrators turned out in their droves to support four superb local candidates.
Now we face
A conservative leader who seems to be broadly coherent, competent, honest and understands political campaigning.
A Labour party that has talked big, delivered small and is hugely fragmented.
A Green party that has gone full on, trendy leftie populist.
Two populist right wing parties who seem to be slowly unravelling.
In conclusion
A) British politics has not been reshaped. It remains a mess.
B) Andy Burnham has not consolidated the centre left. He’s a sticking plaster.
C) Reform is not being pushed to the margins, but Kemi Badenoch is starting to undermine them.
D) Progressive coalition government is not baseline. The left is as fragmented as the right.
E) King makers don’t define the next era, the person you make king does. Nick learned that in 2015.
In the GE of 2024 the central issue was ‘get the Tories out’, and the Lib Dems benefited from this, chiefly in the south of England. The next GE will not revolve around this question, and the LDs need to find a new message. At present it seems to be ‘stop Reform ‘. However, this only makes sense where the party is in direct competition with them, and those seats are few in number. Otherwise, it’s simply an invitation to abandon voting LD in favour of other parties. Is that really a sensible electoral message? I would like to see the party take up some more positive themes – a closer relationship with the EU is one – also an emphasis on environmental concerns – since the Greens appear to have abandoned these.
@Ruth Bright. An answer you question, of course we do. Winning more council seats. We may only have the support of 15% of voters but we have become a very broad church, from disgruntled one nation Tories, Orange bookers, through activists for more progressive causes. It has the potential to unravel catastrophicly, so perhaps best not to get too political. Vote for me. Very sensible. Good with pot holes.
Yes @JohnBicknell pro-Europe, green but sane
@Chris Cory
I haven’t posted here so I am not sure what question you are answering?
@ruth bright. Apologies. Reading too many threads, mental slip. My bad.
@ chris cory. More council seats? How inspiring. I must get out and deliver more leaflets so the voters can see our bar charts.
All I have seen over the weekend is Lib Dems call for EUFA to leave FIFA!!!
@John Bicknell
The next GE will not revolve around [get the Tories out] , and the LDs need to find a new message. At present it seems to be ‘stop Reform ‘. However, this only makes sense where the party is in direct competition with them, and those seats are few in number.
I suspect that for much of the country (if not all of it) the message will be some combination of keep the Tories out/don’t let Reform in. I expect the Tories will remain unpopular for a while, especially if we can link them to Farage and Trump. Badenoch has been incredibly helpful here by suggesting she would put Farage into power in a hung parliament.
It is by no means certain that Burnham will succeed – the problems of international relations low productivity and shortage of money faced by Starmer will not go away at a snap of the fingers, and the electorate cannot be expected to like tax rises either or welfare cuts.
I tend to agree with David Evans and Hywel, but in the mist of the uncertainty comes opportunity.
@Jenny Barnes
“Do the LDs have an actual political project apart from “more seats in the HOC”? ”
Yes: “to build and safeguard a fair, free and open society, in which we seek to balance the fundamental values of liberty, equality and community, and in which no-one shall be enslaved by poverty, ignorance or conformity”
The more Lib Dems MPs there are in the House of commons there are, the easier this will be to achieve.
unfortunately our current leader has been more worried about Badgers on bank notes and stale stunts than refreshing our party for the challenge of 2019 GE , Unless we raise our own profile and advocate an agenda more in line with Paddy Ashdown or Charles Kennedy we will deserve to be a forgotten note in British political history .
@chriscory 👍