The BNP are holding their party conference – in a gym on the edge of an industrial estate near Wigan, with no journalists allowed – and the big news there is Nick Griffin’s plan to stand for Parliament in Barking next year.
Keen students of geography may notice that Barking is some way from the constituency that Mr Griffin currently represents in the European Parliament – the North West of England. Clearly, whatever other objectives Nick Griffin might have, actually doing the job he was elected to do in June isn’t one of them.
Could the BNP win Barking?
It’s an odd constituency – a pretty safe seat for Labour, despite them winning well under half the votes in 2005. Margaret Hodge’s nearly-9,000 majority over the Conservatives comes from a three-way split with the Tories, Lib Dems and BNP all getting percentage votes in the teens.
It’s not impossible to see Barking turn into a three-way or four-way marginal, though it seems pretty unlikely and the BNP would have to be doing a great deal better than they are at the moment.
A key element might be Nick Griffin persuading the voters of Barking that he’s got a little more respect for them than the people of the North West who he seems so keen to abandon.
If the BNP are hoping electoral reform will help them, they might be disappointed.
The Alternative Vote system favoured by many Labour reformers isn’t proportional and makes it even less likely that any minor party could win a seat.
Single Transferable Vote (STV) – the Lib Dem’s system of choice – is little better for them. Even with large six-member constituencies, the BNP would need to secure over 14% of the vote across an area with half a million voters – far better than they managed even in the European elections, traditionally favourable to minor parties.
Despite Griffin’s constituency hopping, and the party’s transparent attempts to hide their particularly nasty brand of racism, BNP conference goers will be hoping for a big surprise in May.
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12 Comments
I read some time ago that he was gonna stand for Thurrock which I thought was odd considering Barking is their best chance of a breakthrough!
I thought London was an ‘ethnically cleansed‘ place that didn’t count as British any more?
Actually the BNP would have a strong chance under STV but it will depend heavily on how the boundaries are drawn. Since it’s likely both the Thames and the Greater London boundary will not be crossed then there’s really only two possible combinations for Barking:
* Barking & Dagenham, Newham and Tower Hamlets – the London Assembly City & East constituency (give or take the City itself), with the Havering & Redbridge constituency similarly used for Barking’s other neighbours
* Havering and Barking & Dagenham, which is a bit on the small size (only 4 MPs), or with Redbridge thrown in to make up the numbers.
In the last London Assembly elections the BNP’s list vote across Barking & Dagenham and Havering was approximately average 19.39% which puts them in the ball park for a seat in even a four member constituency. Add in the two Ilford constituencies and it drops to 14.96% which is still close to a six member seat. The rest of Redbridge will marginally boost them.
In the City & East combination the BNP were below 10% because of organisational weakness and demographics in Tower Hamlets and Newham. But they would still be an outside shot for transfers and would benefit from vote leakage amongst other parties.
@James Graham A lot of people in that part of outer London think of themselves as Essex – look how often nearby Romford is held up as a political example of Essex Man. The “London” that the BNP attack, and for that matter which the anti-BNP claim is threatened by the election of the BNP, is not an entity many BNP target voters in Barking feel they are a part of (hence the latter claims can seriously rebound).
If they don’t want to allow journalists into their conference, it’s their loss – not ours.
The joys of closed lists mean that Martin Wingfield will be elected in Nick’s place by default and not by a by-election. Similar logic allows Caroline Lucas to pass on her seat to Keith Taylor should she be elected in Brighton Pavilion.
So not running in Keighley this time then? Ah well, that means the odds of me popping up to help Nader a bit are slightly reduced.
Griffin really does jump around the country in search of a seat. Lives in Wales, ran for Keighley, then the NW, now London.
Any chance we could get an organised campaign in there over the next few years along the lines of what’s been done in Burnley?
“Any chance we could get an organised campaign in there over the next few years along the lines of what’s been done in Burnley?”
Ask London region what has been done to support Barking since the first BNP gain there in 2004? (It maybe lots it may be very little but the reason why the growth of the BNP was turned around in Burnley was because the region and the MEP invested time, money and people in helping campaigns there)
Yup–and hopefully we can see if Yorkshire region can give some of the same sort of assistance to Barnsley and similar places as well (let alone Doncaster).
And I need to compare some notes with you then write up my long postponed stuff on the psephology of the BNP vote as well.
There’s another key difference between Barking and Burnley : all-out elections every 4 years against annual election by thirds.
Isn’t the likeliest outcome in Barking a nasty squeeze for the Lib Dems, and a boost for whoever looks likeliest to win?
[And let’s hope there are no stupid inaccurate “It’s us or the BNP” stories from ANY party]
The Black Shorts.
If “that silly little man” wishes to parade in Barking with his “black shorts”, then so be it.
He is late in turning up; I first came to Barking in 1968 to visit the Barking Brassware Company, what great products and what quality!
However on Sunday afternoon I spent a pleasant afternoon in the area for my mother’s 90th party I had plenty of time to see the community on a chilly but sunny afternoon.
It seems more like liberal democrat country to me, than a place for “that silly little man”. It is a tight community with many people on the street, walking, shopping, with a multiple of services being offered by small businesses; not at all welcoming to centrally directed party with one man making decisions.
Involving the people living locally in making decisions, building a community which takes pride both in its heritage and its future is good old fashion liberalism. This area is just right for a liberal democratic future; plenty of work needed to grow the community and plenty of dynamic local people capable of doing the job. These same dynamic local people joining with our existing local party activists will provide a true new opportunity for Barking.
Many smaller parties without the unlimited rescources and manpower of the major parties field the same candidates for both European and national elections.
Griffin has stated that he will defnitely 100% move to live in Barking if/when he wins, more than can be said for Hodge, she resides in Kensington or somewhere similar doesn’t she?
Next point please or have you scraped the bottom of the barrel yet?!
This article is way off the mark – the threat of Griffin taking the seat is very real and present, but the real danger is the BNP taking complete control of the council. Do read the following articles by Nick Lowles Director of Searchlight:
http://www.hopenothate.org.uk/2010-the-year-ahead
And
http://www.hopenothate.org.uk/Battlefield-Barking-and-Dagenham
Happy to come and speak at any Liberal meetings about the threat.
Sam