As the election draws closer and the polls seem firmly stuck in or near hung-parliament territory, the latest Guardian/ICM poll suggests that the prospect of no one party having an absolute majority isn’t scaring voters as much as Labour and the Conservatives might like.
Voters remain unconvinced by the Conservative alternative, with 29% thinking a clear Tory victory would be best. Only 18% think Britain would be best served by a strong Labour win this spring. Both groups are outnumbered by the 44% who want a hung parliament in which the government works with smaller parties such as the Liberal Democrats.
Accepting all the caveats about individual polls and not knowing exactly how the questions were asked, it’s striking that about a third of Labour and Tory voters would seem not to want their party of choice to win an outright majority (or not know whether they do or not).
Might it be that the public really is ready for a hung parliament; and, if so, can the Lib Dems turn it to their advantage and persuade more people that a vote for the Lib Dems is a positive choice for change, not a wasted vote?
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The Canadians (who also have FPTP) have voted for a hung parliament on three consecutive occasions now. They seem to like it. And in October 1974, far from the Liberal vote collapsing, it only went down by 1% and caused the party to lose a net 1 seats.
Despite the hysterics coming out of the Labour and Tory front benches for decades about hung parliaments leading to the four horsemen of the Apocalypse (the term hung parliament itself is a devious bit of spin), the public seem to be largely unimpressed by it.
I hope the public understand what a hung Parliament is. It doesn’t mean MPs will be hanged if they abuse the expenses system..
The Lib Dems need to communicate to this 44% that in hundreds of seats voting Lib Dem is makes a hung parliament more likely, or at least does no harm. However, in the 150 key Lab-Con contests voting Lib Dem is not the best way of blocking a Commons majority. In the micro marginals of these 150, the Tories must be backed to remove Brown’s majority. But in the others Labour need support to prevent a Cameron/Osborne majority replacing it.
Roger – you could be onto something there !
Seriously – expect a shed load more FUD about a balanced parliament.
Only by convincing people that they and the country will be better off if the Lib Dems have more influence.
People don’t and can’t vote for a hung parliament but they can elect more Lib Dem MPs.
So — no, a hung parliament isn’t a vote winner but the Lib Dems’ core messages may well be.
Above all, this poll shows that Cameron hasn’t closed the deal, so the opportunity is there.