Pollwatch Day 10 #GE2010 – Lib Dems at 20%, Lab 31%, Tories 38%

By Stephen Tall | Fri 16th April 2010 - 3:25 pm

Amidst all the excitement of the debate we neglected to report the latest two polls released last night:

Still no change in Anthony Wells’ UK Polling Report ‘poll of polls’ average – but I suspect that may change in the next day or so …

Con 38% (n/c), Lab 31% (+1%), Lib Dem 20% (n/c)

It’s interesting to see the effect of the debate on public perceptions. YouGov asked how much confidence voters had in each of the leaders to take the right decisions for the country before and after the debate. Here’s what they found:

Nick Clegg: BEFORE 45% had some or a lot of confidence in Nick’s leadership abilities, with 52% having little or none; AFTER 74% (+29%) had some or a lot of confidence in Nick, with just 26% (-26%) having little or none. Put another way, Nick went from a net -7% confidence rating to +48%. Not bad for 90 minutes work.

Gordon Brown: BEFORE 42% had some or a lot of confidence in Brown’s leadership abilities, with 47% having little or none; AFTER 47% (+5%) had some or a lot of confidence in Nick, with 53% (+6%) having little or none. The net effect is that Brown went ever so slightly backwards, from -5% to -6%: clearly he is the most polarising of the three leaders.

David Cameron: BEFORE 50% had some or a lot of confidence in Cameron’s leadership abilities, with 49% having little or none; AFTER 54% (+4%) had some or a lot of confidence in Cameron, with 46% (-3%) having little or none. The net effect is that Cameron made a modest advance, from +1% to +8%: okay, it’s an increase, but relative to Nick’s figures this will be counted a disappointment by Tory HQ.

5 Comments

Philip Young 16th Apr '10 - 4:49pm

Comres today show Lib Dem support up to 24, Tories unchanged…the Guardian/ICM poll after the Debate showed a quarter of those polled said they would now be prepared to change their vote to Liberal Democrat, and put Clegg on 51 per cent, runaway winner. (Google The Guardian).
Philip Young 16th Apr '10 - 4:53pm

Q: “If Nick Clegg keeps this up he will probably be Prime Minister.” Who says this?

…You’d never guess.

A: The Daily Mail (see their website, headline had to get in the words “Obhama-like” and “Lib Dems leap-frog Labour” )

Daily Telegraph website is also an interesting read…
Andrew Suffield 16th Apr '10 - 5:11pm

UK polling report shows no changes because the latest poll it includes is from Wednesday. It quite literally has not changed.
KL 16th Apr '10 - 9:30pm

Let’s see the ComRes/ITV poll of 4000 people again – please, pretty please!

Con – 36%, Lib Dem – 35%, Lab – 24%

*comes down from dreamland again….*
Anthony Aloysius St 16th Apr '10 - 10:07pm

And here’s the big news. According to YouGov the Lib Dems have moved into second place, and are only 3 points behind the Tories at that!

CON 33% (-4)
LAB 28% (-3)
LD 30% (+8)