Five new polls reported tonight – and, yet again, the Lib Dem surge is holding up:
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Ipsos MORI for Reuters … CON 32%(-3), LAB 28%(-2), LIB DEM 32%(+11)
Harris in Metro … CON 31%(-5), LAB 26%(-1), LIB DEM 30%(+7)
YouGov in the Sun … CON 33%(+2), LAB 27%(+1), LIB DEM 31%(-3)
TNS-BRMB … CON 34%(-2), LAB 29%(-4), LIB DEM 30%(+8)
ComRes for the Independent/ITV … CON 35%(nc), LAB 25%(-1), LIB DEM 27%(+1)
Anthony Wells’ UK Polling Report ‘poll of polls’ now shows the Lib Dems firmly in second place, ahead of Labour, and catching up the Tories:
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CON 33%, LAB 27%, LIB DEM 29%
Two questions will be answered in the next 24 hours. First, what will be the effect of tomorrow’s televised debate? Will Nick Clegg do well enough to maintain the Lib Dem momentum?
And secondly will the rightwing press’s decision to unleash the ‘forces of hell’ on Nick Clegg with a string of desperate smears, innuendos and untruths hit Lib Dem support, or will it backfire on the Mail/Sun/Torygraph as the public sees through their flailing attempts to shore up support for the status quo?
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3 Comments
As an 18 year old I didn’t experience the SDP-Liberal election in the 80s or the surge in polls in the 70s, perhaps to my benefit, but this election even for me is eye-wateringly close to a breakthrough. I find myself not wanting to watch the Foreign Affairs debate because I cant bear to see us mess it all up by ourselves. I have a sneaking feeling that as a strongly principled Liberal, who is likely to remain a Liberal Democrat member for many many years, that this election is going to be the start of the heartbreaking life of a Lib Dem political junkie.
Although there are areas where Lib/Dem policy does not chime with the majority, immigration, the EU and the euro being good examples, the two main parties are not much closer.
It seems to me that the electorate’s main concerns are corrupt career politicians and the alternating dictatorship which our political system has become – every vote for the Lib/Dems provides hope that these two problems will be confronted.
Given that a ‘balanced’ parliament now seems inevitable, and popular, I would have thought that Nick would have to do remarkably badly to change the current share of votes significantly.
Don’t worry Joe, I’ve been a Lib/Libdem political junkie since the age of 14 – I’m now 58 – and I’ve survived as, I hope, reasonably sane despite the inevitable highs and lows over the years. The highs have generally been sensational by-election victories where we have built up an unstoppable momentum and have surged through to win by a margin beyond our wildest dreams. Now THAT is how it feels just now – i.e. a by-election for all British constituencies. The question today of course is will you and I be still on a high – or thrown into a terrible low – after the debate tonight? Waiting another full two weeks for the actual event is agony!