Two polls published tonight:
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Harris in the Daily Mail … CON 33%(+1), LAB 24%(-1), LDEM 32%(+2)
YouGov in the Sun … CON 34%(nc), LAB 28%(+1), LDEM 28%(nc)
No significant changes there, all within the margin of error; though certainly encouraging to see the Lib Dems still polling at c.30% of the vote, at least level with Labour, and potentially even gaining support. Let’s see what the weekend polls, which will also include public reaction to the final debate, have in store.
Anthony Wells’ UK Polling Report ‘poll of polls’ is resolutely stuck at Con 34%, Lib Dem 29%, Lab 27%. Just five days’ polls left to go until the one that matters. And then what are we all going to do?
Could we end up with 120 MPs?
That’s the current projection of Nate Silver’s FiveThiryEight.com, a US-based website which embarrassingly outstrips the combined intelligence and resource of the BBC, ITV, Channel 4 and Sky to actually look at polling and try and work out what the hell might happen, rather than parrot dumb stats that no-one believes.
Here’s what the site’s projecting for the UK election based on the following plausible-enough vote share:
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Con 33.5%, Lib Dem 28.7%, Lab 26.3%
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5 Comments
If the Liberal Democrats poll 30% or more then we are in completely uncharted territory. The Swingometer projections go straight out of the window, because it’s extremely difficult to calculate which constituencies the falling Labour vote is going to drop in. If for example the Labour vote holds up strongly in Scotland and some inner city areas then the reds may well find that they retreat into their strongholds letting the Liberals, and yes the Conservatives into a vast number of seats.
Think back in history when the Liberal Party retreated to Cornwall & Devon, it’s historic stronghold. Are we seeing Labours retreat to Scotland? If the Lib Dems can get to 35% in the polls then would anyone really trust in the Swingometer any more?
What’s the point of ending up with 120 MPs if we also end up with a “slash and burn” Tory government – and still have a Labour opposition to reap the benefits in 4-5 years’ time?
Nah – dare to believe in a final week surge. 42% and 500 MPs.
At this point we need to remind voters that we are not just the Clegg & Cable show and introduce our cabinet in waiting.
Here are some alternative scenarios from Nate Silver’s site: http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2010/04/post-uk-debate-scenarios.html
The second scenario is based on Con 36.5%, Lib Dems 32.2%, Labour 22%
Seat distribution: Con 337, Lib Dem 166, Labour 115.
70% of Labour incumbents would lose their seats. Looking at the Economist Angus Reid poll and the latest Harris poll this is within our reach. We must fight to come second in seats as well as in votes, but it is achievable.
Incidentally, I believe that all of 538’s scenarios underestimate turnout. They’re putting it at 66-67%, which is the proportion of voters that tell pollsters they are absolutely certain to vote; but historically turnout has been higher than the number of people who say they are certain to vote. It could well top 70%. Mike Smithson of PB.com certainly seems inclined that way too.