Pollwatch – State of the Leaders: Clegg -30%, Cameron -8%, Miliband -11% (May 2011)

Yesterday, Pollwatch looked at the current state of the parties; today it’s the turn of the party leaders, Messrs Clegg, Cameron and Miliband.

As with all polls, what follows comes with caveats. Four of the polling companies – YouGov, Ipsos-Mori, ComRes and Angus Reid – ask questions specifically to find out the public’s views of the party leaders. And each asks variants on the basic question – do you think Clegg/Cameron/Miliband are doing a good job – to come up with their figures, so comparison ain’t easy. For that reason, I’m taking a 3-month rolling average which isn’t very statistically ‘pure’, but will give us a rule of thumb. Besides, we don’t indulge in polls that often, so here goes …

  • Cameron 41% approve, 51% disapprove (net -10%); Miliband 34%, 41% (-7%); Clegg 30%, 59% (-29%)
    (Angus Reid: Do you approve or disapprove of of (name)’s performance as Y…)
  • Cameron 37% good, 46% bad (net -6%); Miliband 22%, 35% (-13%); Clegg 28%, 49% (-21%)
    (ComRes: Do you think X is turnng out to be a good leader of Y?)
  • Cameron 42% satisfied, 50% dissatisfied (net -8%); Miliband 33%, 42% (-9%); Clegg 24%, 55% (-31%)
    (Ipsos MORI: Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way X is doing his job as Y?)
  • Cameron 43% well, 51% badly (net -8%); Miliband 33%, 47% (-14%), Clegg 27%, 64% (-37%)
    (YouGov: Do you think (name) is doing well or badly as (position)?)

Which gives us an average net popularity – and, yes, I know how unscientific such averages are – as follows (compared with our averages last month):

    David Cameron -8% (-6%); Ed Miliband -11% (-10%); Nick Clegg -30% (-25%)

As for what I think of all this, I refer the honourable reader to my assessment of the party leaders last month: I’ve little to add…

So let’s instead look at the detail of one of YouGov’s findings, focusing on leaders’ characteristics (compared with the last polls before the May 2010 general election):

    “Sticks to what he believes in”
    Nick Clegg: 6% now (27%, May 2010)
    David Cameron: 25% (22%)
    Ed Miliband: 17% (n/a)

    “Honest”
    Nick Clegg: 14% (32%)
    David Cameron: 19% (20%)
    Ed Miliband: 16%

    “Strong”
    Nick Clegg: 5% (16%)
    David Cameron: 20% (23%)
    Ed Miliband: 9% (n/a)

    “In touch with ordinary people”
    Nick Clegg: 14% (37%)
    David Cameron: 10% (20%)
    Ed Miliband: 22% (n/a)

    “Good in a crisis”
    Nick Clegg: 4% (6%)
    David Cameron: 15% (10%
    Ed Miliband: 4% (n/a)

    “Decisive”
    Nick Clegg: 6% (17%)
    David Cameron: 23% (24%)
    Ed Miliband: 9% (n/a)

    “A natural leader”
    Nick Clegg: 6% (17%)
    David Cameron: 20% (26%)
    Ed Miliband: 6% (n/a)

    “Charismatic”
    Nick Clegg: 14% (45%)
    David Cameron: 25% (40%)
    Ed Miliband: 7% (n/a)

Overall, it’s not a happy picture for Nick Clegg. His ratings have dropped, sharply, compared to almost a year ago. Though David Cameron’s ratings have also slipped in sme areas, in others they have increased — so this is not just about being in government of itself, but specifically about how Nick Clegg is perceived in government.

Looking back over the polling figures for the last 9 months, it’s clear the tuition fees U-turn was especially toxic for Nick. It may turn out to be the equivalent for him of Iraq for Blair: a moment when voters’ minds were made up, and faith in their trustworthiness were fatally undermined. But that is not inevitable. Memories do fade (if there’s one tactically smart thing the Lib Dems did do with tuition fees, no matter what you think of the policy, it was to make the tough choice early on, rather than defer it); and Nick still has another four years to demomstrate to voters his ability to advance his core beliefs.

There are perhaps two brighter (or less dim, depending on your disposition) elements to the leaders’ ratings, above. First, Nick does at least lead David Cameron in one respect: being in touch with ordinary people. Indeed, it’s notable that this is the one characteristic where the Prime Minister’s sure-touch has otherwise deserted him.

The second is that Ed Miliband fares little better than Nick. To an extent, this is unsurprising: Ed is still largely unknown to the public, Labour leader for just over six months. He’s plenty of time to make his mark. And yet given Labour’s curently high poll ratings, 40%+, Ed might have hoped some of the party’s popularity would have rubbed off on him. Though Nick Clegg has undoubtedly disappointed many, it seems Ed Miliband has failed to impress on pretty much the same scale.

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7 Comments

  • The Tories have the right to be smug. They have entirely used the Lib Dems and we have let them get away with it. I hardly ever see Tories defending cut, only Lib Dems, and I can’t understand why LD has allowed this to happen and Tory members have boasted to me how happy they are about that.

    The Tories would be much less popular if they were doing this alone and all we have done is prop them up in the polls at our expense. We have got concessions over policies people don’t care about and totally sold out on the policies that do matter.

    LD have to change their tactics, negotiate better and an exit strategy should be ont he cards. LD have to make themselves far more distinctive from the Tories and stand their ground. I am often told that LD look spinless. Something has to change.

  • Nick (not Clegg) 4th May '11 - 8:55pm

    @ Yasmin,

    Correct. We’ve been used. The Tory negotiators twelve months ago saw ours coming, completely outwitted them and now have us exactly where they want us: on toast.

  • Clegg’s damaged goods I’m afraid.

    The Lib Dems were so desperate for rpower they sold out cheap, they didn’t any of the big four offices (Home Sec, Foriegn Sec, Chancellor or PM) and sold out for an AV vote which they can’t win.

    Today I’m going to be asked if I want to see MPs elected by the Alternative Vote instead of FPTP. The honest answer to that question is “NO, I want PR” so that’s exactly what I’ll write on my ballot.

  • Leekliberal 5th May '11 - 8:54pm

    I wonder how the negative comments above will be seen in 2015?

  • ‘Nick still has another four years to demomstrate to voters his ability to advance his core beliefs’.

    I suspect he has only a year or two to demonstrate it to the party, though. And he needs to advance OUR core beliefs – his appear to be significantly different.

    We are more democratic than Labour; he will be easier to get rid of than Blair, should it come to that.

  • I know some will sneer, but as a Conservative voter (who voted LibDem at the GE) I know that there’s a lot of respect for Nick Clegg and the LibDems in the South East of England.

    You faced both ways with the electorate for many years without having prove yourselves in government. Now that you’re in power with the Tories you’ve lost a lot of left-wing support. But honestly, were they really your supporters at all? Or were you just being buoyed up by protest votes from disaffected labour voters? And has Labour changed so much that the protest is over?

    It’s early days, and nothing succeeds like success. The worst is over (local elections + AV referendum). Things will get much better.

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