This thread will be updated as often as I can during the night. I will be at the count in Edinburgh hoping to see a gain in either Edinburgh Western or the Lothians list.
The party is cautiously optimistic that it can grow from its 2011 nadir of 11 seats – but only by 1 or 2 seats. We have had a brilliant campaign and we can be very proud of Willie for the way he’s conducted himself. We’ve found that people are ready to listen to us and trust us again, but the rebuild is a long-term project.
Willie is standing in North East Fife and on the Mid Scotland and Fife list. The constituency win is a possibility. He squeaked in on the list last time, so until I know he’s safely re-elected, I won’t be resting easy.
The other places to watch out for include Aberdeenshire East, where Christine Jardine is hoping to win the seat from the SNP. A new candidate has replaced Alex Salmond who is now at Westminster and she’s proved to be controversial. If she does win, that means that Mike Rumbles, heading the north east list may not.
The party is hopeful of holding on to Orkney and Shetland where Alistair Carmichael is our only Scottish MP. Losing those seats would be a huge blow, but it sounds as though the campaign has been going well. We will see once and for all whether Alistair Carmichael’s court case has affected local opinion.
If we have a very good day, the West of Scotland might be the sort of place where we pick up a seat. That would mean the election of Katy Gordon.
Just so we can get an overview of where we are coming from, here, thanks to the wonders of the BBC, is an overview of the 2011 result.
Things have radically changed in Scotland since then. Five years ago, turnout was only 50%. It is likely to be much higher in this election. The SNP’s dominance has become even more entrenched and Labour is in free fall.
The Liberal Democrats have had a pretty joyful, bright and exuberant six weeks, unlike in 2011 where it was a total car-crash (literally as a car we sent round the highlands to promote our campaign to save the Police found itself wrapped round a lamppost on day 1). We will find out in the next few hours whether it has saved us from the very real danger of wipeout.
And the news from Orkney is brilliant with Liam MacArthur being re-elected with a whopping 67.5% of the vote. That’s up 31% on 2011.
Edinburgh Western remains too close to call.
Update at 3.15am from Mary Reid:
It’s now looking clear the Liberal Democrats are going to gain Edinburgh Western from the SNP.
— Britain Elects (@britainelects) May 6, 2016
And here is the excellent news about Willie Rennie:
North East Fife:
LDEM: 43.8% (+15.4)
SNP: 33.7% (-3.5)
CON: 16.6% (-2.4)
LAB: 5.9% (-6.2)— Britain Elects (@britainelects) May 6, 2016
And at 4.10am
Liberal Democrat GAIN Edinburgh Western from SNP.
— Britain Elects (@britainelects) May 6, 2016
Which explains why Caron hasn’t been around for a bit…
* Caron Lindsay is Editor of Liberal Democrat Voice and blogs at Caron's Musings
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13 Comments
Isn’t the 2011 nadir five seats (not eleven)?
My mole at the Reekie count suggests glum faces from SNP counting agents when the Edinburgh Western postal ballots were verified…
Very easy hold in Orkney. Probably bodes well for the Shetlands seat.
Well done to Alex and the team in Edinburgh West.
What a great result.
Now that all the Scottish results are in, we have five seats, exactly the same number as before the election.
The same number, but with one key difference.
We now have an all male group of MSP after replacing our one female MSP with a male MSP.
One other difference.
We are no longer the fourth party in Scotland and are now the fifth largest party, behind the SNP, Conservatives, Labour and the Greens.
Clearly hard work was well-rewarded in Fife and Edinburgh. And a couple of close seconds in the North West. But we seem to have lost the Borders and Deeside to the Tories and there and everywhere else are no longer part of the political furniture in Scotland. I take little comfort from our crumbs.
Not as bad as feared. From what I’ve seen Rennie and his team have fought a very good campaign. The downside is that when Labour are so bad the Lib Dems should be getting the ex-Labour voters, instead they seem to be going to the Greens or straight over to the Tories. An absolutely cracking result for the Tories, a little disappointing for the SNP and I’m sure the Greens will be happy finishing above the Lib Dems.
The EdW and NEF results are superb. So too are the scale of the wins in Orkney and Shetland. Be honest: did anyone here predict that we would comfortably win these 4 constituencies? Of course it is very disappointing that we’ve not increased our number and have finished 5th, but it’s extremely important that we have shown we can win constituency seats again. That has big implications going forward. Remember LDFightback was always bound to be a painfully slow process. We should be congratulating Willie on an excellent hard-fought campaign and solid progress.
John, the system means that had Alex and Willie both lost their constituencies, they’d have been returned on the lists taking two seats from the Greens – pushing us back into 4th and leaving the SNP 1 short of a majority.
But I agree with you on the diversity point.
The reason I wasn’t around is that after the verification, A Certain Person gathered all us counting agents together, said they thought we had won by a whisker and we needed to be extra vigilant as the votes were being counted, scaring the living daylights out of us at the seriousness of this job. We all very conscientiously stayed rooted to the spot even when it became clear that that whisker was in fact kicking the backside of 3000 votes.
It was an amazing moment.
After all the Edinburgh results were declared we went back to Scottish HQ at Clifton Terrace. Some of us had some beer, some had whisky, and others, like me, had a nice cup of tea. It is thought that the power cut that engulfed the vicinity, including Haymarket Station, was not related to a certain new MSP deciding to make toast at 6 am.
Keith – I am glad that both Alex and Willie won their constituencies, rather than list seats, for a number of reasons.
As you say, they would have won list seats if they had just lost the constituency vote, but two Greens would have lost regional seats to be replaced by two more SNP MSPs and I suspect that many Lib-Dems, like me, would rather have Geen MSPs than more Nationalists.
Secondly, although we have fewer MSPs than the Greens, it is nearly impossible to build up a solid regional vote, unlike in individual constituencies, and hopefully we can build on the constituency results in Edinburgh West and North East Fife to regain the Westminster seats.
Overall, I think we are much better off winning both constituencies, even if our numbers are now just below the Greens.
The Lib Dems remain on 5 seats.
The seat gain in Edinburgh should be seen as this being a pro-Union city with the Tories picking up a seat and even Labour winning a seat from the SNP. Voters chose the party likely to defeat the SNP.
Yes, two seats gained in the constituencies – but wiped out by two losses in the List section. On about 5% on the List vote.