Tag Archives: electoral calculus

The polls in 2014: what they show with 133 days left til 7 May 2015

The final polls of the year have been published — getting on for 500 have been commissioned in 2014 — and their story is told in the graph below.

It shows Labour’s declining (down from c.38% to c.33%), the Tories static (at c.32%), Ukip on the rise (up from c.12% to c.16%), and the Lib Dems dipping (down from c.10% to c.8%). I’ve added trendlines to cut through the noise and give us a signal:

2014 in polls

The last month has done little to alter this overall picture.

Posted in Polls | Also tagged , , and | 36 Comments

Latest ICM poll shows Lib Dems at 14%. I’d call that “mildly encouraging”

guarian icm - jan 2014The latest ICM poll for The Guardian is published today. Its topline figures show Labour on 35% (-2%), the Tories on 32% (n/c), with the Lib Dems on 14% (+2%) and Ukip on 10% (+1%).

The changes from last month are all within the margin of error, so nothing too dramatic can be read into it. The ratings are mildly encouraging for the Lib Dems. The ICM poll at the equivalent point in the parliamentary cycle – January 2009 – had the party at 16%. ICM’s poll is the one most eagerly awaited by poll-watchers, as the company has the best historic track record. It also tends to give the Lib Dems better ratings (than, say, YouGov) because of its methodology – but it’s a methodology which has yet to be tested under Coalition conditions.

Input the figures into Electoral Calculus’s online prediction software and you’ll see they’d give Labour a majority of 24, with the Lib Dems reduced to 35 seats. In reality, I think the Lib Dems would do a little better than that on 14%, owing to the incumbency boost of our MPs’ (and local activists’) hard work – which would also likely eat into Labour’s seat tally, as it’s the Lib Dem-Labour battlegrounds where we’re most vulnerable.

Posted in Polls | Also tagged | 32 Comments
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Recent Comments

  • User AvatarDave Page 22nd May - 4:52pm
    Link to Colin Rosenstiel's copy (with apologies for typo in previous comment): http://www.rosenstiel.co.uk/aldc/commpol.htm
  • User AvatarLaurence Cox 22nd May - 4:25pm
    It might be a good idea to download it; following Colin's sad demise, we don't know how long the Rosenstiel web site will last. [Note...
  • User Avatarpaul barker 22nd May - 4:08pm
    @ Katherine Pindar & the 6% was quickly followed by another 9% Can I appeal to everyone to either ignore Polls or look at them...
  • User AvatarDave Page 22nd May - 4:01pm
    "Theory and Practice of Community Politics" is pretty much my go-to book as a Lib Dem and I'd advise anybody read it (IIRC there's a...
  • User AvatarJennie 22nd May - 3:59pm
    ♡♡♡
  • User AvatarMichael 1 22nd May - 3:17pm
    @Katharine Pindar Obviously the most important thing we can all do is get down to Lewisham East (and I need to wean myself of LDV...