Tag Archives: hamish mcrae

The double dip recession that never was?

Did the double-dip recession ever happen? It looks increasingly possible that it didn’t — the BBC reports the latest revision to the data:

A revision by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) has cast doubt on the UK’s double-dip recession last year. Revised growth estimates now suggest the construction industry shrank in the first quarter of 2012, but by less than previously thought. Analysts say the revision may be enough to mean the overall economy narrowly avoided falling into recession for a second time. The ONS is due to give official confirmation of this in June.

In fact there was a …

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“We’re not in recession”. Last July’s headline comes true (belatedly).

Four months ago, just after the last set of quarterly figures published by the ONS showed a sharp contraction in the UK economy, I highlighted economist Hamish McRae’s very public assertion that the UK was in actual fact no longer in recession. Pointing to the second-highest rate of job creation ever in the private sector, combined with falling inflation, he declared: ‘pull all the other data together and the figures would be consistent with an economy growing at around 1 per cent a year’.

Here’s what he has to say about the latest quarterly growth figures of +1.0%, which …

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“We’re not in recession”. And no, that’s not the claim of anyone in the Coalition.

Hamish McRae, an economist and associate editor of The Independent, has been claiming for some while now that the official figures aren’t reflecting the reality of the economy. A week ago, he made the bold statement that the UK is not in recession:

The British economy is becoming more and more interesting. This week we have had two positive surprises … the fall in inflation to 2.4 per cent, a much sharper decline than expected, with the prospect that it may be below 2 per cent by the autumn … a further fall in unemployment on the

Posted in News | Also tagged and | 18 Comments
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Recent Comments

  • User AvatarMichael BG 21st Sep - 1:43am
    Ross McLean, “Michael BG – you mean February 1974, not 1970”. Indeed I do mean February 1974. Mick Taylor, The Labour government formed in February...
  • User AvatarJohnMc 21st Sep - 12:21am
    Hmm ‘omni-fiasco’ not mini fiasco as auto-corrected above !
  • User AvatarJohnMc 21st Sep - 12:19am
    Why assume a past-it tv programme watched only by the politically active (and attended by partisans) is representative of the U.K.? Lots of quiet people,...
  • User AvatarSean Hagan 20th Sep - 11:16pm
    @Ross McLean - I do understand how representative parliamentary democracy operates, thanks, and (subject to the long overdue introduction of proportional representation) generally prefer that...
  • User AvatarRodney Watts 20th Sep - 11:11pm
    @ Nom de Plume & Mick Taylor First, may I gently point out that that the Guardian is quoting members of the Jewish labour Movement...
  • User AvatarAlex Macfie 20th Sep - 10:56pm
    David Allen: Strip aside the snide, snarky, sarcastic tone of your last comment and what we have is a completely defeatist attitude where we basically...
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