Tag Archives: hamish mcrae

Stephen Tall

The double dip recession that never was?

By Stephen Tall | Sat 11th May 2013 - 12:35 pm

Did the double-dip recession ever happen? It looks increasingly possible that it didn’t — the BBC reports the latest revision to the data:

A revision by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) has cast doubt on the UK’s double-dip recession last year. Revised growth estimates now suggest the construction industry shrank in the first quarter of 2012, but by less than previously thought. Analysts say the revision may be enough to mean the overall economy narrowly avoided falling into recession for a second time. The ONS is due to give official confirmation of this in June.

In fact there was a …

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Stephen Tall

“We’re not in recession”. Last July’s headline comes true (belatedly).

By Stephen Tall | Thu 25th October 2012 - 8:05 pm

Four months ago, just after the last set of quarterly figures published by the ONS showed a sharp contraction in the UK economy, I highlighted economist Hamish McRae’s very public assertion that the UK was in actual fact no longer in recession. Pointing to the second-highest rate of job creation ever in the private sector, combined with falling inflation, he declared: ‘pull all the other data together and the figures would be consistent with an economy growing at around 1 per cent a year’.

Here’s what he has to say about the latest quarterly growth figures of +1.0%, which …

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Stephen Tall

“We’re not in recession”. And no, that’s not the claim of anyone in the Coalition.

By Stephen Tall | Thu 26th July 2012 - 12:45 pm

Hamish McRae, an economist and associate editor of The Independent, has been claiming for some while now that the official figures aren’t reflecting the reality of the economy. A week ago, he made the bold statement that the UK is not in recession:

The British economy is becoming more and more interesting. This week we have had two positive surprises … the fall in inflation to 2.4 per cent, a much sharper decline than expected, with the prospect that it may be below 2 per cent by the autumn … a further fall in unemployment on the

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