Tag Archives: hamish mcrae

The double dip recession that never was?

Did the double-dip recession ever happen? It looks increasingly possible that it didn’t — the BBC reports the latest revision to the data:

A revision by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) has cast doubt on the UK’s double-dip recession last year. Revised growth estimates now suggest the construction industry shrank in the first quarter of 2012, but by less than previously thought. Analysts say the revision may be enough to mean the overall economy narrowly avoided falling into recession for a second time. The ONS is due to give official confirmation of this in June.

In fact there was a …

Posted in News | Also tagged , , , , and | 17 Comments

“We’re not in recession”. Last July’s headline comes true (belatedly).

Four months ago, just after the last set of quarterly figures published by the ONS showed a sharp contraction in the UK economy, I highlighted economist Hamish McRae’s very public assertion that the UK was in actual fact no longer in recession. Pointing to the second-highest rate of job creation ever in the private sector, combined with falling inflation, he declared: ‘pull all the other data together and the figures would be consistent with an economy growing at around 1 per cent a year’.

Here’s what he has to say about the latest quarterly growth figures of +1.0%, which …

Posted in News | Also tagged , , and | 25 Comments

“We’re not in recession”. And no, that’s not the claim of anyone in the Coalition.

Hamish McRae, an economist and associate editor of The Independent, has been claiming for some while now that the official figures aren’t reflecting the reality of the economy. A week ago, he made the bold statement that the UK is not in recession:

The British economy is becoming more and more interesting. This week we have had two positive surprises … the fall in inflation to 2.4 per cent, a much sharper decline than expected, with the prospect that it may be below 2 per cent by the autumn … a further fall in unemployment on the

Posted in News | Also tagged and | 18 Comments
Advert



Recent Comments

  • User AvatarNigel Jones 19th Feb - 9:59am
    I hope Andy Hyde is right about his kids not enduring the divide between grammar schools and secondary modern. But who knows what Boris will...
  • User AvatarJoe Bourke 19th Feb - 9:41am
    David, I bought a copy of Plato's Republic in a jumble sale many years ago and still have it on my bookshelf. It is Plato's...
  • User AvatarAndy Hyde 19th Feb - 9:25am
    TCO: Like Dave I sat CSEs instead of GCEs, and yes I failed my Eleven Plus. At 16 I went on to a Student Apprenticeship...
  • User AvatarJohn Bicknell 19th Feb - 9:22am
    I can empathise with some of David Warren's comments. I passed my 11 plus (my parents were told later that my scores were amongst the...
  • User AvatarDavid Evans 19th Feb - 9:16am
    Joe, Please try to be helpful. If you think it is particularly relevant, perhaps you could provide a summary for those of us who studied...
  • User AvatarCatherine Smart 19th Feb - 8:56am
    I am surprised there has not been any mention of the ways people can return to learning, including the Open University - but many other...