Lib Dem Voice has polled our members-only forum to discover what Lib Dem members think of various political issues, the Coalition, and the performance of key party figures. Some 735 party members responded – thank you – and we’re publishing the full results.
“The economy is in a bad way, but is starting to show signs of recovery”
That’s the view of the current state of the economy, according to 44% of Lib Dem members. One-third of you take a more optimistic outlook – 33% say “the economy is improving and on the way to full recovery”. However, just over one-fifth (21%) think the economy is either “still getting worse” (5%) or is showing “no signs of any recovery yet” (16%).
Thinking about the current state of the economy, which of the following best reflects your view?
-
5% – The economy is still getting worse
16% – The economy has stopped getting worse, but there are no signs of any recovery yet
44% – The economy is in a bad way, but is starting to show signs of recovery
33% – The economy is improving and on the way to full recovery
2% – Don’t know
Here’s a sample of your comments…
• There remain issues with the banking sector and housing market, but there are clearly more jobs and more people feeling the benefits of growth.
• There remain a large number of uncertainties about the underlying strengths and weaknesses of the British economy. Government policy is still too focused on short-term stimuli and not enough on long-term resilience.
• the economy has stopped getting worse there are a few signs of recovery but it seems that society is economically more devisive. the rich are getting richer and the poor are worse off…more significant strategies are needed to address this
• The disconnect between price rises and wage restraint is becoming increasingly uncomfortable.
• The problems lie in the nature of the recovery. It is too dependent on financial and other services with little learnt from what caused the the downturn in 2007
• The question though is about whether the recovery is fair, to which the answer is “No!”
• By the definitions of better & worse – but believe these are inherently wrong
• Wage growth still a concern – and what policy response is best to tackle it. Nobody seems to know why there is a lack of wage growth either.
• We are responsible for the beginnings of recovery in the UK economy and MUST own it. We must NOT allow the Tories to take all the credit.
• This has been the slowest economic recovery in over 300 years. Do not think for one second that we’re anywhere near where we should be.
• Work in property at the speculative end of the sector – signs of growth have been slow but present for a year
• All of the economic signs are good, but it may be many years before recovery is felt by the poorest in our society.
• We haven’t begun to feel the worst of the effects of austerity yet. 2016 will be awful.
• Most signs of recovery seem spurious to me, or deliberately generated for pre-election reasons. I have seen the Tories do this time and again. A shame we are part of it this time.
• Times are still hard for the average person. Huge cost of living rise especially on essentials such as energy bills, shopping and fuel.
• much of the financial suffering at the bottom of the ladder is as a direct consequence of Coalition policies
• Growth is based on debt, not investment.
• Most ordinary people have yet to see any benefit from what little recovery there is. Real wages have fallen, and are continuing to fall.
• None of these – the economy is improving but on a fitful path.
• The economy is showing superficial signs of recovery and may be restored to its pre-crash state in time. But, because the entire system is being left essentially in its pre-crash state, another crash with similar results is inevitable, and my confidence in the ability of Britain to weather a second such crash is low.
• Whatever happened to Nick Clegg’s claim that we need to rebalance the economy? It was the right thing to say and do. Why have we stopped campaigning on it?
• The main issue is that of the attacks by coalition on the unemployed, the poor, the disabled, the use of zero hour contracts,part time and the working poor.
• The widening gulf between the rich and the poor.
• It is improving but little sign for ordinary people yet
* Stephen was Editor (and Co-Editor) of Liberal Democrat Voice from 2007 to 2015, and writes at The Collected Stephen Tall.
Follow @libdemvoice.org on Bluesky
Like us on Facebook
Subscribe to our feed
Sign-up for our daily email digest
Leadership plotting, in real life and in fiction
A journey along the Welsh Border in 1963
Recipe for a real change of direction
Day 9304: So Farewell Then, Kier Starmer
Peter Martin
John Armah
John Kelly
Nonconformistradical
John Reed
14 Comments
It would be interesting to see a regional breakdown of these responses. My friends in London do indeed feel the economy is on the mend, but here in the North there is not that level of optimism.
Tony bagged my 1st point, is there a regional difference.
The overall figures suggest that many of us dont want to believe in the Recovery & the question is why. My worry is that it makes it harder for us to claim our Partys share of the achievement of recovery if we dont believe there is one.
The problem is that the Conservatives are stealing 2010 Lib Dem votes precisely on the back of the economic recovery. According to Yougov, one of the reasons we are languishing with 7% of the vote is that 16% of our 2010 voters have gone to the Tories. If we had even those back we’d be returned to double digit percentages and have a fighting chance of retaining a decent number of our MPs.
If even we don’t believe in the economic recovery, how on earth can we create a narrative to persuade voters to credit us for it?
@RC “According to Yougov, one of the reasons we are languishing with 7% of the vote is that 16% of our 2010 voters have gone to the Tories.”
But were they Lib Dem supporters or tactical anti-Labour voters?
A lot of Lib Dem votes were cast against one of the other parties rather than for Lib Dem policies. Anti-Labour voters will probably “return” to the Lib Dems when push comes to shove (unless UKIP looks like a better option locally). It’s a tougher call for anti-Tory tactical voters as Lib Dems in government have not done enough to distinguish themselves from their coalition partners.
In the NE England I know no one who thinks the recovery is under way in my region. I do think the personnel tax allowance was very good but seemed to let employers off increasing wages so zero real benefit in the pocket
“It’s a tougher call for anti-Tory tactical voters as Lib Dems in government have not done enough to distinguish themselves from their coalition partners”
Not true. We’ve done huge amounts in government, it’s just no-one has told the voters. We simply have made no impact in communicating what we have actually done – this is totally clear from the conversations you have with people on the doorstep. People just genuinely don’t know.
@ Allan
“In the NE England I know no one who thinks the recovery is under way in my region. ”
Maybe it’s just the people you know. According to people running businesses, the North East is one of the fastest growing regions in the UK. In fact in July it had the fastest rate of growth in the UK, in terms of private sector activity and in August it was still growing strongly.
http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/1e541a47f23844acb78a65990d0b00c5
The problem the North East faces is that around 60% of its economy is accounted for by the public sector and it’s going to take a long time to build up the private sector to rebalance it.
In the NW England I know closed pubs and empty shops are re-opening. Growth is clear, causes not so clear, whether that is down to local strategies or national policies. Business rate reliefs have enabled us to move into new premises that we couldn’t afford previously. I’d like to see our Lib Dem Business Secretary extracting maximum credit for those initiatives.
I think we are losing voters because we are not trumpeting our achievements from the rooftops and we don’t have a slate of eye catching and imaginative policies the electorate can identify with. It is not too late to change either, and as they say a week is a long time in politics. I also think we have a problem with defeatism and cynicism in the ranks. I think we can retain most if not all the current seats, with Clegg at the head, but it will take a change in attitudes more than anything else.
@RC
The point you make about business saying things are great really does backup my point that it’s great for them no wage increases, take on extra staff get lower NIS for them and any overtime dries up not good if you are on low pay.
The public sector and NHS have shed staff leaving people I know with a very good academic score not able to find work as over skilled
So minimum pay get nothing extra, good academically and can’t find work, yes business love it but that only means it’s not felt by the public
RC What you say about the NE economy would turn people (sorry, already has turned people) there against us, not in favour. The electoral figures over the last 4 years show it – decimated in Newcastle, from an extremely promising position. The direction of employment, wages etc, is clearly NOT welcomed by local people. Your idea that we “should be communicating better” is not sensible. If we insisted we had helped generate the current situation, I would be pretty sure it would result in a lower vote for us. I am trying to persuade people away from the NE that we would be on very shaky ground if we try to overclaim, and I would urge the same message on you.
“What you say about the NE economy would turn people (sorry, already has turned people) there against us, not in favour.”
Why?
“The direction of employment, wages etc, is clearly NOT welcomed by local people.”
Employment is growing but wages are not set by the government, nor are prices. What will help both is a vigorously growing private sector, which is what is happening. The Lib Dems, through things like LEPs, the British Business Bank, the Regional Growth Fund, the Green Investment Bank and the expansion of apprenticeships etc. is all trying to drive that growth faster so employment rises and in the medium to long term. Plus new infrastructure investment planned for the North East like road improvements will reinforce this.
Unless we can paint a positive picture of what we’re doing to help rebuild the North East’s economy after the recession, then the Tories are going to be getting votes on the back of the recovery and we’re not – which is exactly what is happening right now.
@RC
I thank you for the reply, let me narrow NE 2 Teesside this area has many industrial plants and indeed nuclear power, when you mention roads I agree that many works have occurred an example would be traffic lights that now mean regardless of traffic you may stop 2 or 3 times even when the road is empty and travel is now in my opinion far slower
When I go to the mouth of the river Tees the smell from the works is disgusting and when it is said we should recycle it seems a far flung joke as most would hope a visit to the coast would mean fresh air
Are the private sector playing ball no not in my opinion a firm will have a substantial government grant for setting up and when it leaves the brown field sites often just rot
I was glad the the Steel Works re opened it was good for employment but if you visited that area once Corus left it was a waste land ok the new owners took that up but what about when they go.
The green belt near me has been more or less used up while brown field site are left to decay that is not progress its vandalism by the private sector that requires state intervention if those areas are ever to recover
Listing bodies that should help really for me means salaries for people who do not take things like wages as being important today D Cameron says like LD that tax threshold would raise to £12.5K so that that takes minimum pay out of tax £2K is what £8 per week in 5 Years ask yourself how much would inflation add on minimum wage in the same time
Further ask yourself using CPI as a measure of inflation let’s say 2% when utilities increase at 6% does to disposable income
My area openreach has decided it’s not financially viable for installing infinity broad band, has our local economy improved sorry it’s a resounding no, might it do so, perhaps if more funds passed into the area I do not mean fedaral
Federal is fine if people start at the same level, when such disparity exists who would want power to start from below the surface London it seems will need lots of bricks that’s great everywhere can make things better for the South how about the South sending more help here
While I don’t believe we’ve done enough to differentiate ourselves from the Tories in government, the evidence of local elections – and Eastleigh – is that where the choice appears to be between us and the Tories, many Labour supporters will still vote tactically for us. If UKIP look to be in the running, some Labour supporters may vote for them, but at a guess these may not include many former tactical voters for us; and many people belong to the anything-but-UKIP party.
A problem which hasn’t been much debated is whether we can motivate our natural supporters to turn out. That may be harder this time and any sign that the election could be close between Tories and Labour should motivate their votes to turn out.
The elephant in the room is what happens when interest rates go up. People think they can just not increase them and the stock market will go up forever, but it won’t, because soon the money being pumped into it will run out. Big problems ahead and unfortunately policy makers seem to be living in fantasy land.