Here’s a bit of fun speculation, at least if you’re not a Tory. Let’s suppose most of the last 10 days’ polls are right, and David Cameron’s Tories are destined to have fewer MPs than Labour in the House of Commons (even if they win more votes) – what would the Tories do?
That’s the question Andy Beckett ponders in today’s Guardian.
Would David Cameron resign or be forced to quit? According to Tim Bale, author of The Conservative Party: From Thatcher to Cameron, he’d be safe if he chooses to be:
“You’ll get lots of huffing and puffing on ConservativeHome. But I can’t see a serious leadership challenge.” Not even from Boris Johnson? “No.” Bale pauses. “Then again, people did say he had no serious chance of becoming mayor of London.”
And what of Labour, if they found themselves miraculously back in office? Former leadership contender Bryan Gould is pessimistic:
… governments that win an unexpected extra term tend not to end happily. Gould is mindful of what happened to Major after 1992: “If Labour won this time, would voters wake up the day after the election and say: ‘God, five more years of Gordon Brown’? I think they would.”
As Lib Dem-leaning think-tank Centre Forum‘s Director, Julian Astle comments:
“These are the best circumstances for the Liberal Democrats for a long time,” says Julian Astle, a former party adviser and now director of the thinktank CentreForum. “The Lib Dems, historically, are beneficiaries of Tory unpopularity. The Lib Dems are not counting on a hung parliament but they see it as a likely outcome.”
What do LDV readers think might be the result of the Tories losing the election?
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4 Comments
reckon the Sun may have a bit of back peddaling to do if it does happen. Seeing as they claim to represent the voice of the common person and the common person has told Dave “no thanks”.
Think Dave will stay on but he will be pressured by the party to go push to the right more than now and ditch the ‘liberal conservative’ puff. Think Boris won’t make a play yet but come Mayoral re-elections if Ken does run again, Bojo may feel inclined for a push for the leadership if dissenting voices start getting louder.
Damn, I was going to write a post yesterday on this subject basically saying this is an election no one should want to win.
What with Cameron calling in Saatchi and the left wing unions calling strikes just before an election, both parties seem to be reverting to type. The Ashcroft affair has shown Cameron to be weak. Even if he gets a small majority, the eurosceptic headbangers will do for him what they did for Major. If Brown gets a small majority the left wing MPs will push him to the left. The LibDems are the only party to ensure stability after the next election.
What is really important is to push both Cameron and Brown to say that they will go for a couple of years stability to allow Vince Cable to get the economy more back to an even keel. Go for it!
I think Cameron will survive because who else is there? BoJo not withstanding it’s a pretty poor field.
Labour’s problem is that they will be stuck with Gordon. I imagine that the party are looking forward to ditching him after the defeat (though I imagine he thinks he has a divine right to remain).
“Lib Dem-leaning think-tank Centre Forum”
I think that’s like saying that Policy Exchange is close to the Tories or IPPR has a relationship with New Labour.