‘Lib Dem support hits all-time low’ shouts the front page of the Independent today. It’s a bit of a rum story for two reasons.
First, because it’s not true — though I recognise that’s rarely a reason for a newspaper not to run a story. Those who doubt my word can read Anthony Wells’ UK Polling Blog post, pithily titled: Lib Dem support NOT at all-time low.
And, secondly, because even if it were true it’s not really news — we all know Lib Dem poll ratings have taken a battering. We also all know how fickle have been the opinion polls over the past 12 months. A year ago, many were writing off the Lib Dems’ chances because we were regularly polling below our 2005 general election figure. The came ‘Cleggmania’, and our ratings rocketed — only to subside by polling day itself. And since then they’ve been on a downward trend.
What will be the position by May 2011? No-one really knows. Our opponents and pessimistic supporters will assume we should get used to low ratings; those who are optimists among our ranks will look forward to our ratings increasing.
These are tricky days for the Lib Dems: none of us doubt that. We knew the risks well enough when we entered into Coalition, that the value of our investment could go down as well as up. I’m not complacent enough just to assume that there will be an upward trend sooner or later. But our party has been written off so many times by the media, always to bounce back again, that it may take more than a dodgy Indy headline to persuade me that this time we’re all doomed.
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46 Comments
I have money on (at good odds) for us to win O&S, though I’m not expecting a return. Likewise our councillor numbers next May. Unpopularity is the price you pay for being a party of government, as Matthew Parris pointed out recently. You can’t please all the people all of the time.
By 2014 we could be a parliamentary party with no supporters. I honestly cannot see any way of improving our situation, since people now just associate us with deceit and a lack of principles.
Also, did Nick Clegg honestly just use the phrase “two-horse race”? Excuse me while I go and hurl.
Mr Clegg and the Liberal Democratic party are, in my opinion, being judged fairly for what has happened since May. The LibDems and especially Mr Clegg, have behaved in a way that has damaged themselves and more importantly damaged the (already dire) reputation of politics and politicians. It seems the case that 40–50% of those who voted LibDem at the election are very angry that the party that they voted for is, in their view, enabling a Tory government to implement a very Tory set of policies (I include myself here). “We are all in this together” must surely be the sick joke of the century. The majority of these voter will not return to the LibDems, and why should they? What has been done cannot be undone. Mr Brown (an utter disaster for Labour) is now history, therefor those people who want genuine “fairness” as opposed the Clegg-Cameron version, will henceforth return to Labour. The LibDems will come a poor second at the ‘Old and Sad’ by-election, the vote for AV is now lost because of its LibDem and Clegg association. Mr Clegg said back in October “The Lib Dems never were and aren’t a receptacle for left-wing dissatisfaction with the Labour Party”. So be it, that suits me.
@Tabman
Unpopularity is the price you pay for being a party of government, as Matthew Parris pointed out recently. You can’t please all the people all of the time.
On the other hand, it’s not as if the Conservatives have seen any great decline in their support since the election. For some reason the Lib Dems have seen their support slump by extraordinary amounts, it’s worth reflecting on the causes of this because the strength of any party is ultimately reflective of its popular support. Unpopularity makes parties powerless, if you want to change anything in government then you’ll have to address this before the Tories decide that the odds are in favour of calling a fresh election.
Well, that’s a bit of good news. Despite performing amazing u-turns the LibDems have had worse poll ratings.
Give it time… There’s still a few pre-election promises to go back on. Anyone for Control Orders?
G – you need to look at support across a number of pools, including the DNV pool. Voters switch between parties, between voting and not voting, and between coming onto the register and leaving it.
Ultimately, it depends upon the timing of these switches. At present we are in the pain stage of the game. When we’re in the gain stage of the game, then we’ll see what happens to some of those transfers.
The UK polling report website has some explanation why it may or may not be correct – but remember this is the world of newspapers and they do not sell with bland headlines.
Welcome to the world of realpolitik – parties in Government often get sensational headlines that may be a little economical with the truth. Were you decrying the same sort of headline – more viciously in most cases – against Brown?
Didn’t the LD also go on about Brown ‘squatting’ in Number 10 when he was correct to do so as there was no other PM?
In any event these results are pretty awful for the party whichever way you look at it – shooting the messenger does not help I am afraid.
Have you a view where the replacement voters are coming from. The policies at the moment do little to attract the centre-left and Clegg has made it clear he does not want us types voting for you anyway. There have been some things I have welcomed on civil liberties ut nothing that has not been watered-down and I am still not convinced that there will not be an illiberal reaction to the next terrorist attack. It was events that led Labour down this track – not wanting to be seen to be soft on terror. The Tories have never been hot on civil liberties either from what I remember. These are far outweighed by the other policies that you have allowed the Tories to introduce and don’t give me the flannel about it being progressive etc – I am as capable as you at researching and looking at the data and I don’t agree.
If you want my vote back then do something about it rather than navel-gazing!!! What a shambles the party has become
“And, secondly, because even if it were true it’s not really news — we all know Lib Dem poll ratings have taken a battering.”
That’s quite funny considering that in his last “Pollwatch” article – formerly monthly but strangely not seen since August – Stephen Tall was trying to make out based on the ICM figures that Lib Dem support was quite normal for the time of year …
@Tabman
G – you need to look at support across a number of pools, including the DNV pool. Voters switch between parties, between voting and not voting, and between coming onto the register and leaving it.
Ultimately, it depends upon the timing of these switches. At present we are in the pain stage of the game. When we’re in the gain stage of the game, then we’ll see what happens to some of those transfers.
Is this an argument that voters intentions are subject to external influences? If so, then what external influences have driven the voters away from the Lib Dems, and which will bring them back? You can’t just assume that these are natural eddys and flows uninfluenced by any politician or party.
OK, I grant that the severity of the Independent’s headline might not accurately reflect the poll data, but in what way precisely does this prove that ‘It Isn’t [Independent, that is]’…? (Sensationalist headlines all round – Ed.)
g
Exactly the point I have tried to make – if these lost voters are centre-left (seems to be a fair one based on the polling data) what policies are the LD going to put forward to woo them back.. The only thing I can see left in the locker is AV and to me that is nowhere near enough!
All the good things they had in their manifesto that led me to vote for them have already gone or been watered-down
We hear a lot about this being some sort of short-term issue but noone has explained what will take voters back who look like they have moved back to labour – if anything direct Labour to Tory seems more likely.
One thing I suppose is ditching the leader and having a more robust approach to coalition government
Well, I can’t say I’m surprised….. I’m really not surprised that a formally supportive centre ground newspaper should devote it’s front cover to trashing the LibDems.
I’m a LibDem but with Nick Clegg seemingly glued to Cameron I would rather someone else won in Oldham – the LibDems have lurched to the right and deserve to lose, they share policies with the Tories and no matter how many Steve Hilton-inspired twists, turns and untruths they use, the policies are rotten.
I hope we lose Oldham and Saddleworth big time and that Clegg realises his time is over, he’s the worst leader we’ve ever had.
It reminds me of the stoning scene in the Life of Brian….
Worse how could it get any worse…..
And then I read the data from the UK Polling blog and realised it can.. But only just.
I agree with your conclusion but, in making these sorts of arguments, you run the risk of sounding like the members of the mutant Maoist sect I used to argue with when I was at Auckland University. They would angrily reject any claims that Pol Pot murdered 3 million people – “it was only 1 million, at the most!”.
11% in the poll of polls is a derisory figure, and would see the Lib Dems lose scores of seats at a general election. Yes, that may be some years off, and polls don’t predict the future, but we need to be honest about where we are, and why. The real point is, how do we go about regaining support. [see my blog post on this subject from last month http://neilstockley.blogspot.com/2010/12/understanding-liberal-democrats.html.%5D
Trying to spin bad polling figures is always a pointless exercise.
The Independent and the Guardian are stuffed full of journalists who have decided to abuse their positions by getting their own back on the party which they think betrayed them (poor darlings) after they told people to vote Liberal Democrat in the belief that this was the best way to stop the Tories winning. Some are people who feel genuinely betrayed (since they never understood coaliton politics) and others (particularly on the Grauniad) are Labour hacks who were angry at their papers’ stance at the election and are now exacting their revenge on both the LDs and their editors.
Gutterslime does not adequately describe their present positions which resujlt in them running inaccurate story after inaccurate story. Someone once said facts are sacred: no doubt he is spinning in his grave. 11%? I can live with that for the moment. We were down at 4% in some polls soon after the merger!
But of course a lot of these scumscribes pick up the lowest reported (usually YouGov and that is another disgraceful story on its own) and reported that as what “the polls” are saying.
What I wonder is why they expect Liberal Democrats to stay loyal to their newspapers.
Tony Greaves
I was a LibDem voter last May, however, should I be a constituent in Sad’ and Old’ I could well find my pen hovering over the ballot paper. Why ?
Well, let me make clear, I have some sympathy with reversals on student fees and VAT. After all, a coalition only works when ground is conceded and compromises are made. No, what sticks in the craw, as I am sure it does for many, is how lightly the guilty bankers have been treated. OK, so we do not have laws to bring charges on corporate misgovernance ( a fact that GB rues in his recent book ,despite his 13 years of inaction ) but that does not rule out other sanction options. Vince Cable once mooted barring these bankers from future directorships – what happened to that ?
Since the Autumn of 2007 Vince Cable has been laudable in keeping the bankers’ misdemeanours in the public eye. However, despite the fine rhetoric, what has actually happened ? Fred Goodwin kept the lion’s share of his massive pension pot, and all those bankers (including Goodwin) doubtless still show off their Knighthood citations for ‘services to banking’. Dr Cable – you should have saved your breath to cool your porridge.
One token measure that the Business Secretary could have done, but did nothing, was to remove Derek Wanless (another of Brown’s Knighted bankers) form the FRC’s Board for Actuarial Standards.
Wanless was lambasted by the All Party Commons Treasury Select Committee for his woeful role as Head of Risk at the Northern Rock Bank. This was the Head of Risk who, despite warnings, was ‘happy’ to see the executives lend 125% mortgages on money borrowed ‘short’. His oversight of the bank’s business model was ridiculed by politicians and commentators of every persuasion. Wanless personified those bankers for whom we are now incurring VAT rises, job losses, student fee increases and public service cuts.
So, why is Wanless, unequivocally, the very antithesis of actuarial prudence, sitting on this Board for Actuarial Standards, part of the FRC ? Chair of the FRC is Baroness Hogg, an appointment made by non other than the Business Secretary. Given all the past rhetoric about sanctioning the bankers, you could be forgiven for thinking Dr Cable would have at least insisted on Wanless’ removal from the BAS – if only to satisfy the taxpaying public’s perception of fairness. But no – nothing ! All talk – no action.
That’s why my pen would be hovering over the ballot paper in Sad’ and Old’.
Stephen – the Party + this site seem to be taking a dislike to it’s traditional friends in the Guardian and Independent. It’s a little odd, seeing as the Guardian for one still pro-actively supports the Party in every editorial.
If you read the article, the “all-time low” reference is to the newly commissioned ‘poll of polls’ – in which they are at an all-time low.
It’s a sign of desperation I must say to attack the media directly – and one which the previous administration took over 10 years to get to.
Mind – if you think the Indy + Grauniad are against you – you should read what the Mirror, Mail, Express + Telegraph think of you…
Cuse, you say – ‘the Guardian for one still pro-actively supports the Party in every editorial’.
I sincerely hope the Guardian are more balanced in their views than you suggest. None of us are always right, and that includes the LibDems. Rather than blind unfailing allegiance, I prefer balanced debate, and if I am considered wrong, I wish to hear an alternative view. I certainly don’t want unctuous and sycophantic allegiance purely to perpetuate the ‘pro-active support’ of others. I want honesty, warts ‘n all !
John – I agree.
Check out the Guardian however. It’s editorial team are 100% pro-Lib Dem – and it’s editorial pieces unflinchingly pro-Lib Dem.
Still.
G – “Is this an argument that voters intentions are subject to external influences? If so, then what external influences have driven the voters away from the Lib Dems, and which will bring them back? You can’t just assume that these are natural eddys and flows uninfluenced by any politician or party.”
Voters churn; we’ve seen some desert the party because they were lefty protest voters. We now have the opportunity to attract centrist liberal voters who previoulsy voted for Blair and Cameron by working through our policies.
Tabman
Love the optimism.
I also like the way you describe voters as ‘lefty protest voters’ – perhaps that explains some of your problem!
Staggering to see such a head in the sand attitude by LibDem members and politicians. The polls reflect what I hear people saying in the pub and the workplace: that the LibDems have lost their distinction as a party. Their siding with the Tories over student funding has lost them thousands of young voters. Their stance on taxation will lose them thousands of poorer voters. Blaming the media, the Labour Party and “lefties” will achieve nothing. Gordon Brown and Tony Blair have wisely disappeared from the political scene. The country would be in deficit no matter who had been in power for the last 13 years. The LibDems have an dimwitted and vain leader who has no understanding of the average person (cf. Tony Blair’s mastery of relating to the common man). Nick Clegg is the only celebrity that I have heard make a disaster of himself on Desert Island Discs. Take it from a lifelong (until now) LibDem supporter: separate yourselves from the Tories and ditch that dreadful Clegg.
Buried further in the Independent article is a para which places these results in some historical context – pointing out that at the same time in the 1979 Parliament, Labour were, you guessed it, 4 or 5 points ahead of Thatcher in the polls. They went on to lose the next three General Elections. It’s a long game.
It’s true, though – they were lefty protest voters. In an economic crisis you do what you have to do, and there’s no way you can keep onside all the voters who refuse to face reality. As Tabman says, there are plenty more sensible centrist voters out there to attract.
Brian Robson. Trying to find solace from the polls of 1979 smacks of desperation. The Labour Party was soon to split, that’s not going to happen now. Ed Miliband is not Michael Foot, and I doubt if there will be a war in the South Atlantic to revive the fortunes of the government. Labour did indeed lose the next three elections, but the Liberals and their successors in title didn’t exactly flourish either, did they?
“Ed Miliband is not Michael Foot”
If only there was a politician with the integrity of Michael Foot anywhere in parliament …
The only solace for real Liberal Democrats is that the right wingers here pretending everything is fine will be the first ones gone and scorned when Mr Clegg is ejected as Leader.
@Tabman
Voters churn; we’ve seen some desert the party because they were lefty protest voters. We now have the opportunity to attract centrist liberal voters who previoulsy voted for Blair and Cameron by working through our policies.
You’re in government! The time for working through policies is in opposition. Of course it’s slightly awkward that you’re not actually enacting your policies, you’re going back on them and sticking to the Cameron line. So why would anyone who voted for Cameron want to vote for you? Why would anyone who voted for Blair vote for you now as well? Blair had a reputation for being slippery, and eventually dishonest, but that took the best part of a decade to develop. Clegg and the Lib Dems managed to exceed this in just 6 months.
That’s right, chaps, keep blaming the media!
It seems that you have no friends now. The progressive papers and journalists have turned against / seen through you. The right wing ones have not been won over and still distrust you.
Clegg, and his apologists on this site seem determined to insult people (I’m talking about electors, now, not just journalists) to the left of centre who have supported them in the past. But LibDems are still distrusted by the right. From whence, then, do you expect to gain or regain support to stop your ratings from continuing their downward path and to turn them around before the next election?
@Bert Finch:
We had all better hope that there is no war in the South Atlantic. I wouldn’t be so sure – if oil is found off the Falklands then the Argentinians will start making their claims on the islands much more vigorously.
Since we won’t have any carriers (and barely a navy to speak of) all they have to do is take out one airfield and it’s game over.
@ Bert Finch
“Ed Miliband is not Michael Foot”
No, at this stage in his leadership, Michael Foot was MORE popular, according to UK Polling Report.
The more the electorate sees of Ed Miliband, the less it likes him. This is the ticking time bomb under Labour, who are, for now at least, the repository of peed-off voters who are in a bad mood about having to pay for filling the huge hole left in the government finances due to Brown’s squandermania.
While many people may say they will vote Labour, when it really comes to a national election, what would their turnout actually be? Looking at the reports from Old & Sad, apathy and low turnout are likely to be the real winners. The voters are in a rage about their (necessarily) falling standards of living and we are taking the blame. The point is to take the credit when the economy revives and things get better, and not let the Tories walk off with the prize at the end of the race.
@Robert C
I think it would be reasonable to assume that Labour’s vote at the last election was their core support, 29%. Labour’s increase in the polls has mostly come at the expense of Lib Dem support., It would not be unreasonable to conclude that the ‘repository of peed-off voters who are in a bad mood’ and are supporting levels above the core come from the Lib Dems. This is your support you’re insulting!
The point is to take the credit when the economy revives and things get better, and not let the Tories walk off with the prize at the end of the race.
But if this situation happens then it will be Tory policy that has saved the day as it were, not your ideas as laid out in your manifesto, because you’re not following through on those!
Any chance we could have a piece on the apparent manhandling of a slightly built female protestor by a burly Lib MP
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=m2_DXzGMhIo
thanks
@ g
“‘The point is to take the credit when the economy revives and things get better, and not let the Tories walk off with the prize at the end of the race.’
But if this situation happens then it will be Tory policy that has saved the day as it were, not your ideas as laid out in your manifesto, because you’re not following through on those!”
You’re right. But since we’re getting a battering for going along with Tory economics, we might as well shamelessly take any credit that might flow from their possible eventual success. This is because:
1. politics is shameless and we might as well play the game, and:
2. If we can deny the Tories anything positive, that is worth doing in my book
@ Poppie’s mum
for goodness’s sake, that was hardly ‘manhandling’. A protestor tried to break into a photoshoot and had her sign grabbed off her and her attempt to stand in front of nick clegg blocked. while i sympathise with her point – if she was protesting about tuition fees as alleged – no one can be surprised if a protestor ruining a photoshoot is blocked from doing so. It was her right to try, and the libdem’s right to stop her. Get over yourself.
If you want to see real manhandling, remember how an 82 year-old man was ejected from the labour party conference for daring to heckle jack straw…
It’s a good job the Independent has such a low circulation! I certainly have stopped reading it after 18 years of fairly faithfull readership, not because it has decided to savage the Lib Dems in every edition (although that doesn’t help!) but because it isn’t giving me much insight into the news. Most of it’s columnists are second rate and the journalism is increasingly sloppy. The new i newspaper quite undermines the main paper, all the reasonable stuff in the normal paper at a fifth of the cost.
@Leviticus18_23
Posted 5th January 2011 at 3:17 pm | Permalink
“Well, that’s a bit of good news. Despite performing amazing u-turns the LibDems have had worse poll ratings.
Give it time… There’s still a few pre-election promises to go back on. Anyone for Control Orders?”
I agree.
However Control Orders will probably be rebranded and called something like “Guidance Arrangements”
Liberal Democrats will probably try and spin this as progressive and a success.
I am Curious as to the lack of articles and comments on Control Orders from Liberal Democrats.
On tuition fee’s we had article after article from LDV and from Liberal Democrats supporting the U-Turn before parliament even voted,
but there seems to be an eerie silence now on Control Orders.
Is it a case that Liberal Democrats do not care as much about Control Orders and Civil Liberties as the Parties Manifesto claimed to do?
Or is it a case of, because of the car crash that tuition fee’s caused, the slump in the Polls, People are reluctant to start discussing the next issue that is probably going to be very difficult for the party?
“Well, that’s a bit of good news. Despite performing amazing u-turns the LibDems have had worse poll ratings.
Give it time… ”
The Lib Dems have now achieved their lowest ever figure on YouGov tonight – 7%. How much lower will you allow your ratings to sink before you sack Clegg, quit the coalition, and reclaim the heart and soul of your party?
Stephen Tall is to be congratulated for his powers of self-delusion – they are truly astounding!
As an earlier post pointed out, you may have polled even lower in individual polls before, but if the Independent’s polls represents a “poll of polls” then it is a different matter. You cannot dismiss such an average as easily as you can an individual poll. As I predicted recently on this site and on Liberal Conspiracy, the earlier figure of around 11% has decreased.
What I find interesting, in fact astounding, is the fact that those of you who still favour the Coalition can be so sanguine about the collapse in your support, as tho’ it were some mere trifle. You cannot simply dismiss this level of collapse as false consciousness on the part of “floating” left of centre supporters. Either you want to be a significant party, or you don’t. Sticking your fingers in your ears, singing “la-la-la”, and shooting the bearers of bad tidings doesn’t amount to a coherent policy.
You all need to get real and take some swift and positive action to avoid spending decades back in the territory of Grimond and Thorpe with a handful of MP’s and single figures in the polls becoming permanent.
@poppies mum
Just had a look at the clip http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=m2_DXzGMhIo I had seen the incident earlier on telly but the angle made it difficult to see what was going on.
This one is much clearer and actually shows TWO male lib dems basically assaulting the female protester and what is really worrying is the two lib dem female placard holding supporters to the right who seemed highly amused by the whole incident and one headed towards the protester presumably to get stuck in as well although the clip ends at that point.
@ Poppies mum
The Lib Dems assaulting that young girl would have been prosecuted if they were the students and she a Lib Dem. They would probably have been batoned a few times as well. Protest is not going away and this has probably fuelled the fire against the party. Really good photoshoot, two big men against slight young girl with Clegg grinning his head off.
Quite. I’ve never really thought looking forward to good poll-ratings was a good reason for being a Lib Dem. I mean, 9%? Who cares? Sure, we’d all like to be popular, but its more important to be right.
It’s the economy stupid!
Until or unless there is improvement in the UK economy it
doesn’t matter what the ratings are.
The only option for most young people will be to vote with
their feet- go overseas to live and work.
Labour-no hope.
Tories- living in the past, the economics of decline.
@Athirat
Being right and powerless isn’t going to get you far. Sadly in this case you aren’t right either…. great…
It is, actually.
This is a poor post which smacks a little too much of shooting the messenger.
What would you rather – one of the very few remaining national titles which are progressive disappearing?
“I think it would be reasonable to assume that Labour’s vote at the last election was their core support, 29%. ”
That’s quite an assumption. Here is another one: Brown was so unloved at the end that he LOST a lot of the core support that Labour normally enjoys. Banking on any of the 11% that have drifted back to Labour heading towards Clegg again is wishful thinking…