I’ll be providing running commentary throughout the night. First off, a reminder of how you can follow our coverage and help contribute to it:
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10.30 pm
Piers Morgan scratches his head at the exit poll: “I just don’t believe it”. For those who want solace try this sceptical Financial Times take on exit polls.
10.25 pm
Lots of angry tweets from voters turned away from polling stations unable to process the number of voters who turned up, eg:
hubster0007: Hundreds not allowed to vote in @nick_clegg seat. Police trying to empty hall of very angry voters – sorry non voters!
Our electoral system really is an antiquated joke sometimes.
10.20 pm
Rob Knight has tweeted what seems to be the vote share to deliver the exit poll – looks very odd:
10.15 pm
Lots of disbelief of the exit poll on Twitter; and lots of sinking stomachs too …
10.10 pm
Vince Cable on BBC labels the exit poll “very strange”. That’s an understatement. Points out that postal votes won’t have been included, and could be significant factor for Lib Dems. We’ll see. Don’t know about you guys, but I’ve lost my appetite.
10.05 pm
Well, I’m still reeling from that exit poll: a Lib Dem drop in seats. It make no sense. Interesting the BBC didn’t give the vote shares that’s based on they do usually, don’t they?).
Let’s remember 1992, and how wrong it was. If the exit poll is wrong, the pollsters are going to have so much more egg on their faces than in 1992. If they’re right, we are.
10.00 pm
Wow! Exit poll predicts the Lib Dems losing seats:
-
Con 307
Lab 25
Lib Dem 59
Other 29
Does that make sense to anyone?
9.55 pm
Right, the election prediction competition is closed. And we have just 5 minutes to wait til the exit poll. You really will have to run if you want to vote now.
9.45 pm
Remember!! If you haven’t yet voted, you still have time. Leggit down to the polling station now: you don’t need your poll card, just your wits.
9.43 pm
A reminder: if you haven’t yet made your prediction in LDV’s election competition, you have just 12 minutes – it closes at 9.55 pm on the dot.
All the reports being tweeted are of very high turnout: any reports from LDV readers of how it is in your neck of the woods?
9.40 pm
With all broadcasters restricted in what they can report until polls close, most armchair politicos are watching Channel 4’s alternative election night coverage. Not much love on Twitter for Jimmy Carr’s sexist jokes: Alex Wilcock tweets: “My mate Brian Paddick’s on #c4altelection – would it be wrong to hope he ‘sees Jimmy Carr accidentally fall down the stairs’?”
9.30 pm
James Graham is also live-blogging tonight, while also appearing on LBC – as are other Lib Dem bloggers, such as my Co-Editor Mark Pack and Chris Hall.
9.20 pm
Some interesting data from ICM’s final election poll:
23 Comments
Doesn’t seem likely to me – if we’re losing seats, I’d expect it to be to the Tories on course for an overall majority, not a hung parliament.
Wow, I’m depressed seeing that.
Oooh The bubble has burst for the Libs I think. Down in the number of seats as well.
Exit poll seems to be done by Mori. I recall, that they aren’t known to be that accurate, so there’s still hope.
Why do I have the feeling that the libdems are being stitched up?
I feel sick to the stomach, how is it possible after years of tories in power, years of labour in power and after all that has happened to our country under both these parties that libdems can’t gain a progressive vote?
I am very worried for this country…..
Isn’t it right that even when exit polls in the past have got the overall result right, they have got LDs wrong? How much sampling in LD-relevant seats did they do?
This is taken from the FT.
“The exit polling sample barely covers Lib-Lab marginals Because there is no data from on individual polling stations, the wonks calculate the change from the 2001 and 2005 exit polls. It covers around 120 polling stations. But there’s only data on three Lib-Lab marginals. That’s why the Lib Dem vote share prediction was too low in 2005. The problem will be even greater this year.”
And at one point on 97 election night ITV predicted us 72 seats – we got 46
(at 22:29, UK time) – far, very very far, from anything we hoped. Even if 23% would mean an increase compared to 2005 – at this progression speed, change will require decades. Well, the vote being over – just hope the true counts will be more favourable than this exit poll.
A significant amount of lib dem voters don’t tell people how they’ll vote, we’ll see.
I do not believe those exit poll results. I wont really believe the final election results either if they come out like that. The Conservative results are expected but 59 Lib Dem seats?
Hi there
I am down in the newsroom trying to figure out who’s who down here
Look – whether it’s entirely correct that we will lose seats or not, the Exit Poll is probably pointing to a Conservative minority administration. If they get 300 and Labour 250, there is no way that Lib/Lab will work, the electorate won’t accept it and any plebiscite about PR would be certain to fail, simply reflecting popular anger at the stitch up. Peter Mandelson and Alan Johnson’s siren calls may sound sweet, but they had their chance in 3 previous parliaments. Don’t destroy the party, accept the result.
A committed, convinced Liberal, speaking the truth, painfully from the heart,
Paul McKeown
Conservatives confident on Torbay
According to Anthony Wells, there should be an updated projection from the exit poll around 11pm.
Judging by the comments quoted above, it seems _possible_ that Lib Dem gains from Labour have been underestimated.
seems hard to believe! there was a firming up of the Labour vote towards the end of the campaign, a very high turnout and so many undecided but so hard to say if that reflects upon the exit poll.
It looks like a hung parliament but the Tories might have just pinched it? Us, who knows? Lots to learn!
There’s a new live-blog thread open here:
https://www.libdemvoice.org/the-ldv-election-night-liveblog-1030-pm-1130-pm-19353.html
BBC are annoying me now, far too much conjecture.
Stephen, the person who gave Ian Hislop his job, former Editor of Private Eye, was a former Editor of Liberal News, along with Chris Booker (columnist on Sunday Telegraph). “not quite in the closet”….hmmmm.
Getting tired waiting for Lib dem marginals.
Any Rumours on Lib dem seats
CMON BORING, Andrew Neil is such a bore
++++Breaking News on Sky News website that Lib Dems win Edinburgh South, has been reporting this since 10.30….and the Alliance defeat the Ulster Unionist in Belfast East, so, thats one less Unionist to back Cameron.
LIB Dem hold Thornbury and Yate, (north of Bristol), but BBC flag this but still dont flag Edinburgh. Someone ought to send a text to David Steel on the panel at ITV, give him something to shout !!