The LDV Election Night Live-Blog: 9.30 – 10.30 pm

I’ll be providing running commentary throughout the night. First off, a reminder of how you can follow our coverage and help contribute to it:

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10.30 pm

Piers Morgan scratches his head at the exit poll: “I just don’t believe it”. For those who want solace try this sceptical Financial Times take on exit polls.

10.25 pm

Lots of angry tweets from voters turned away from polling stations unable to process the number of voters who turned up, eg:

hubster0007: Hundreds not allowed to vote in @nick_clegg seat. Police trying to empty hall of very angry voters – sorry non voters!

Our electoral system really is an antiquated joke sometimes.

10.20 pm

Rob Knight has tweeted what seems to be the vote share to deliver the exit poll – looks very odd:

10.15 pm

Lots of disbelief of the exit poll on Twitter; and lots of sinking stomachs too …

10.10 pm

Vince Cable on BBC labels the exit poll “very strange”. That’s an understatement. Points out that postal votes won’t have been included, and could be significant factor for Lib Dems. We’ll see. Don’t know about you guys, but I’ve lost my appetite.

10.05 pm

Well, I’m still reeling from that exit poll: a Lib Dem drop in seats. It make no sense. Interesting the BBC didn’t give the vote shares that’s based on they do usually, don’t they?).

Let’s remember 1992, and how wrong it was. If the exit poll is wrong, the pollsters are going to have so much more egg on their faces than in 1992. If they’re right, we are.

10.00 pm

Wow! Exit poll predicts the Lib Dems losing seats:

    Con 307
    Lab 25
    Lib Dem 59
    Other 29

Does that make sense to anyone?

9.55 pm

Right, the election prediction competition is closed. And we have just 5 minutes to wait til the exit poll. You really will have to run if you want to vote now.

9.45 pm

Remember!! If you haven’t yet voted, you still have time. Leggit down to the polling station now: you don’t need your poll card, just your wits.

9.43 pm

A reminder: if you haven’t yet made your prediction in LDV’s election competition, you have just 12 minutes – it closes at 9.55 pm on the dot.

All the reports being tweeted are of very high turnout: any reports from LDV readers of how it is in your neck of the woods?

9.40 pm

With all broadcasters restricted in what they can report until polls close, most armchair politicos are watching Channel 4’s alternative election night coverage. Not much love on Twitter for Jimmy Carr’s sexist jokes: Alex Wilcock tweets: “My mate Brian Paddick’s on #c4altelection – would it be wrong to hope he ‘sees Jimmy Carr accidentally fall down the stairs’?”

9.30 pm

James Graham is also live-blogging tonight, while also appearing on LBC – as are other Lib Dem bloggers, such as my Co-Editor Mark Pack and Chris Hall.

9.20 pm

Some interesting data from ICM’s final election poll:

  • 21% of the public think Nick Clegg would be the best Prime Minister, the same number as Gordon Brown (Cameron’s in the lead with 34%);
  • 36% of the public expect a Tory victory, 43% a hung parliament. A rather sadly loyal/deluded 3% expect Labour to triumph;
  • 44% think the New Labour government (1997-2010) has been bad for Britain, 28% think it’s been good, and 24% say it’s made no difference.
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    23 Comments

    • Wow, I’m depressed seeing that.

    • Oooh The bubble has burst for the Libs I think. Down in the number of seats as well.

    • Exit poll seems to be done by Mori. I recall, that they aren’t known to be that accurate, so there’s still hope.

    • Why do I have the feeling that the libdems are being stitched up?
      I feel sick to the stomach, how is it possible after years of tories in power, years of labour in power and after all that has happened to our country under both these parties that libdems can’t gain a progressive vote?
      I am very worried for this country…..

    • Jeremy Hargreaves 6th May '10 - 10:26pm

      Isn’t it right that even when exit polls in the past have got the overall result right, they have got LDs wrong? How much sampling in LD-relevant seats did they do?

    • This is taken from the FT.

      “The exit polling sample barely covers Lib-Lab marginals Because there is no data from on individual polling stations, the wonks calculate the change from the 2001 and 2005 exit polls. It covers around 120 polling stations. But there’s only data on three Lib-Lab marginals. That’s why the Lib Dem vote share prediction was too low in 2005. The problem will be even greater this year.”

    • Jeremy Hargreaves 6th May '10 - 10:30pm

      And at one point on 97 election night ITV predicted us 72 seats – we got 46

    • A significant amount of lib dem voters don’t tell people how they’ll vote, we’ll see.

    • Paul McKeown 6th May '10 - 10:46pm

      Look – whether it’s entirely correct that we will lose seats or not, the Exit Poll is probably pointing to a Conservative minority administration. If they get 300 and Labour 250, there is no way that Lib/Lab will work, the electorate won’t accept it and any plebiscite about PR would be certain to fail, simply reflecting popular anger at the stitch up. Peter Mandelson and Alan Johnson’s siren calls may sound sweet, but they had their chance in 3 previous parliaments. Don’t destroy the party, accept the result.

      A committed, convinced Liberal, speaking the truth, painfully from the heart,
      Paul McKeown

    • Conservatives confident on Torbay

    • Anthony Aloysius St 6th May '10 - 10:52pm

      According to Anthony Wells, there should be an updated projection from the exit poll around 11pm.

      Judging by the comments quoted above, it seems _possible_ that Lib Dem gains from Labour have been underestimated.

    • seems hard to believe! there was a firming up of the Labour vote towards the end of the campaign, a very high turnout and so many undecided but so hard to say if that reflects upon the exit poll.

      It looks like a hung parliament but the Tories might have just pinched it? Us, who knows? Lots to learn!

    • BBC are annoying me now, far too much conjecture.

    • Getting tired waiting for Lib dem marginals.

    • Any Rumours on Lib dem seats

    • CMON BORING, Andrew Neil is such a bore

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